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Most interesting runner for me today is Brighterdaysahead. I think her massive performance in this last year took so much out of her it soured her, certainly for the rest of the season. You never know if they are over it till they’re back racing.
The ‘can’t run left’ is becoming something of a myth with Gaelic Warrior. He has run at 3 Cheltenham festivals (his only Cheltenham runs). Formline is 221: the final one being his Arkle victory. He’s also been branded in and out. He was 6th on his French debut. Since then, bar 1 unseat, he has never been out of the first 3 and has won 10, and were it not for Townend’s misjudgements on Friday, that would be 11.
The only question left is the Gold Cup trip. Townend’s decision might rest on that, because Gaelic Warrior is 2 years younger and, statistically, much the more likely to win his first Gold Cup than Galopin Des Champs is to win it back after a 112 sequence.
Seems crazy taking 1/1. But he’ll hose up at the DRF. Appears to have no weaknesses. As with them all, he could ping a tendon on the gallops, but measuring it as a cold investment opportunity in a stocks n shares kind of way, he’ll be 2/5 on the day. I have neither the nerve nor appetite for that sort of betting, but admire those who do.
Timeform provisional rating for Affordale Fury there is 166, one behind The Jukebox Man for his King George win.
I Am Maximus looked very well in the paddock if just a wee bit tubby. Galopin Des Champs looked superb given the time of year. RTE show some excellent close ups in the padock. I use a cheap VPN, choose a Dublin server, and you get the full programme; don’t even need to register.
Given his background, there could be a bit to come yet from Affordale Fury. Hills 16s for the Gold Cup won’t last. Well done Wilts.
Affordale Fury was 33s last night. Looks like he’ll go off around 10s. Promising youngster whose career’s been truncated by injury. Could well have a lump of improvement in him.
Lovel stuff, Ruby. Are you a Timeform subscriber?
Here’s their comment on FDC seasonal debut:
was the choice of Kennedy from the yard’s 7 runners and has gone well fresh but shaped as if better for the run after 7 months off; handy, driven early in straight, weakened 3 out; came on for last season’s return and could outrun his odds in something like the Paddy Power next month.
146 on Betfair
Well done all who kept the faith with Haiti Couleurs. That was a hell of a performance from a class horse and a jockey whose confidence in his judgement is such a huge part of his success. A soft ground Gold Cup would give him every chance of leading throughout.
I saw Intense Raffles on offer at 22/1 to 5 places and thought it a crazily generous price. Then I logged into the Betfair Exchange and saw it at the win only price of 84/1. It was only for small money, but that’s what I bet in so I picked off the prices as they dropped in £1 and £2 bets.
Intesnse Raffles has 12 stones here, and many will put a stroke through the horse on that basis alone. But Native River won it with 11.12 in 2018, then Elegant Escape with 11.8 in 2016. It can be done by a classy horse. Intense Raffles is just 7 but has lots of experience.
He moved from France to Tom Gibney in Ireland in January last year and won his first three races, including the Irish Grand National carrying 11.4 – Grand National winner Nick Rockett back in 7th. Intense Raffles had a couple of outings over hurdles after that before running Nick Rockett to under a length in the Bobbyjo, giving that one 3lbs.
He was well backed for the Grand National but suffered interference and looked like he didn’t take to the track. He was pulled up. Early last month he reappeared at Clonmel over a much inadequate 20f, well beaten in 3rd behind Il Etait Temps.
He ran much better next time when 8th of 24 at Newbury in the old Hennessy, trying to give the winner Panic Attack 21 pounds. That trip would have been inadequate for him too, but the race should have put him spot on for this. Bryony Frost comes from France to ride (she is the retained rider for owers Munir & Souede in France). Other than Charlie Deutsch, you could not choose a better rider in a marathon chase, where rhythm means so much. His prominent racing style should also suit this race.
He’s far and away the best value to my eye, but I’ll have exchange bets too on the following:
Collectors Item – around 12/1. His two most recent runs have been the best of his career, suggesting he is improving. He was 2nd last time to Jubilee Express and he is another who races prominently.
You might get about 7/1 about Jubilee Express on Betfair and given his 2nd in this race last year, it seems obvious his Welsh connections targeted him from that day with nothing else in mind but winning this year. He comes into the race bang in form.
Livin On Luco, reunited with 3lb claimer Callum Pritchard improved last time for his first attempt at a marathon trip when winning the Southern National at Fontwell 6 weeks ago. A change to front running tactics that day might also have helped. He should be about 50/1 on Betfair.
Finally, Martin Keighley is a renowned trainer of stayers, and has a most unusual contender in Hung Jury, who’s about to turn 11 yet began his career under rules only this year. He was formerly a very succesful point to pointer. He too will be about 50/1 on Betfair Exchange.
Good luck
Joe
Yep, not like a Townend ride at all and very probably had the John Durkan in the back of his mind. In front a stride past the post, I’d say. If nothing else it shows he’s a ‘made’ horse now and has a hell of a constituion, whereas Fact To File did not fancy it right from the start. I’d be wary of him now until he shows his best again, as the irish race might have burst him.
What a fabulous race. No obvious hard luck stories. Wonderful finish and fair play to Ben Pauling and team.
Yep, they have a horse on their hands. Very few bookies were betting on The Ultima, where 16s was available with two of them but I am barred there. Got a bit of 14s.
CHEPSTOW
GOING: Good to soft
40.8% Moisture
Chase: Good to Soft (GSt 6.1 on Fri 7:00am)
Hurdle: Good to Soft (GSt 6.0 on Fri 7:00am)
Rails: Shared bends, moved on to fresh ground. 2m and 2m3f races +24yds; 3m +39yds; WGN 3m6f +48yds
Boxing Day course update: 0mm Rain Thursday; 4.6mm past week; Forecast – No significant rain for next 7 days – Friday mostly cloudy but Cold NE wind continuing (6*), Keeping above freezing overnight (2-3*), Saturday sunny intervals in morning, cloudy in afternoon with a moderate NE breeze, (8*).
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunnyHave been changing my mind each day seeking ‘value’, but in the final analysis, I accept the inevitable:
…………………….Might Bite in 2017 was the last favourite to win this. It’s thrown up surprises and we’ve grown used to that, hence the varied opinions on the Irish not having it all their own way here. That’s an opinion I was hoping to come up with here, but I can’t. If Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File are over their exertions in the John Durkan, they should fight this out, clear of the others.
Jangoe Baie, 3rd fav, has had comparatively little racing. He produced a remarkable run from the last to win The Arkle quite comfortably, and raced with zest last time for an easy victory at Ascot. He’s been backed for this in recent days and there is always a chance with improving horses that they will find a lump more in training, which can be measured only when they next race. Jangoe Baie will need to have found about 10lbs to win this, I reckon and taking 10/3 about that is a huge leap of faith. There’s much better value in backing him at 16/1 for the Gold Cup.
The Jukebox Man is the ‘apple of Ben Pauling’s eye’. Everything he trains is the apple of Ben’s eye; he’s a frontline optimist. I liked the horse as a novice, but he went wrong and the ground is drying out at Kempton. The Jukebox Man has never run on good, and if it ends up that dry, I wonder if Ben will run him. I suspect his run style and jumping make him look better than he is, but wish him luck.
Djelo is another I like and, at one point believed he could go right to the top. But the fact he lost his form suddenly and badly last spring irks me. He’s looked very impressive in his two wins this season. A feature of his last one was his pinpoint jumping. Photographers at a Djelo fence will find no light between his body and the birch, and such jumping accuracy is an asset so long as you can travel at a pace to hold your rhythm. If you hit one low when out of rhythm, it can end your chances. Still, of the outsiders, he’d be my EW choice.
Last year’s winner Banbridge is the old man of the group at 9. Usually consistent, his form was in and out last season and the Kempton win was his sole victory. Still, he needed the race last time out, should improve for it and if he also improves for the first time visor he could be running on once again in the straight.
Il Est Francais, chased down late by Banbridge, is on one of his up and down phases. His sole outing on good was in the Kauto Star Novices Chase in 2023, where he blitzed the field. To be fair it took little blitzing; a squeeze of Fairy Liquid would have seen them off.
Il Est Francais tried the same tactics in last year’s King George, but for all he can be spectacular jumping, he’s a bit stiff backed and needs more effort at every fence than the athletic types. That energy drain caught up with him in the final straight as he dropped his back legs in each of three fences there. He had zero left when Banbridge got to his girths. That jumping style will cost him again in this edition, where his plate of challenges is already piled high before you even consider the fences.
And, barring serious mishaps, Master Chewy has no chance and will surely be hunted quietly round in the hoping of picking off the clobbered.
Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior have been running in the highest class for a while now and, at 7, and 8, respectively, are entitled to have more to come. They met in last month’s John Durkan Chase over 20f in Ireland, and it was as hard a race as you’d not want to see any top notcher having at that point of the season.
Fact To File got the more conventional ride of the two, jockey Walsh choosing to stay well off the pace set by Gaelic Warrior who seemed to be enjoying himself immensely. Fact To File picked him up gradually after the turn in, and caught him at the last to lead, but not for long. Gaelic Warrior put his head down and came back for more under the Townend drive, and what an odd feeling it must have been for the jockey. He senses that if he obeys his every instinct and the cries from the devil on his shoulder, he can probably get the horse back up. Yet the angel on his other shoulder is warning him with every kick that he could be leaving the first half of the season at Punchestown’s winning post.
You never know the depth of a horse’s constitution until it is reached, and you never know if it’s been reached until it’s back in a hot race. Trainer Mullins believes both horses are fine, and ready to run, but has acknowledged that the race will be the only judge of that.
Fact To File does not lower his head and stretch his neck in a finish. Gaelic Warrior does. While it doesn’t make Fact To File less of a battler, it offers the suspicion that he might be. Time will tell. As I cannot separate them, I’ll have a reverse forecast.
Good luck.
