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Almost half the fences missed out and J’Etoile, who has made mistakes/not fluent in 3 of his last 4 races passes mine (who is a consistently good jumper these days) on the run in. A frustrating business!
Looks like the rain is gonna knock out an excellent value bet here in Hang In There. But MInella Drama is way too big.
Old Roan Chase Aintree 2.00 Good to Soft 20f
The most open Old Roan I can remember and one with its fair share of what-ifs. Hitman is consistent but doesn’t win often (4 from 18). After 687 days off, will My Drogo be at his best? Might his old injury flare again? Even at his best, will that be good enough? Looking back, he hasn’t achieved that much.
Will Tommy’s Oscar stay the trip? His best RPR is 162 at 2 miles on GS. No reason on breeding to doubt his stamina. And he won a Grade 2 in January. He ought to run well, and would be the most reliable bet among those at the front of the market, but I see no value in the 9/2 on offer.
Will Do Your Job’s jumping hold up? J Snowden, trainer of Datsalrighgino said last season that the horse wants 3 miles. If he is okay at this trip, will the ground suit? It’s currently good to soft with 6mm due to fall betwenn now and racing. Snowden’s horse is best on good (153 RPR) though he has run to 149 on soft.
Can Al Dancer maintain his recent consistency – relatively – having won 2 of his last 3 races? Sam Thomas looks to have revived the 10-y-old, and he’s back in the region of his best RPRs. He could go well, but looks about the right price.
How will Jetoile do away from Chepstow (3 from 3 there)? Will Courtland need farther? His top RPR of 150 was over 23f and on good ground. Courtland could outrun his odds back at this trip, but is probably the right price.
I think the only solid value here is with Minella Drama and potentially (ground dependant) Hang In There.
Minella Drama has won 7 from 17, and 4 from 11 over fences. His best RPR (161) was here at Aintree over this trip in April when 3rd in the Grade 1 Melling Chase to Pic D’Orhy. That was on soft. He’s run a 159 on good so he’s not reliant on the rain. He’s improving too;his last three ratings: 156 159 161. He’s been well placed by McCain, showing strong consistency – 22/211212/125142/43113 – an important factor as the value lies in EW. 365 Extra Each Way tab opens opportunities to bet to 6 places for which Minella Drama is 17/2. With the target of simply making a profit, that is the best bet. If you feel braver, you can have 16/1 to 3 places. McCain is in fair form place-wise, though it’s a week since he had a winner.Hang In There at 13/1 to 6 places (30/1 to 3 places) also looks value, but only if the ground dries up and that seems unlikley. He has run to 155 on good, but only 146 on soft. He’s 9 from 20 on good, 1 from 6 on soft and 0 from 3 on GS. In all he is 11 from 32 and 7 from 16 over fences. He looks to have a good rapport with his young 5lb claimer Joe Anderson who is 3 from 8 on him (three 2nds too). He’s another improver: 146 147 155 his last three runs. And trainer Lavelle has had 5 winners in the past 14 days. If the ground is reported more good than good to soft, I’d defiitely back him. If it turns soft I would not.
Good luck
JoeWell done Bobby. I like Elvis Mail a lot. He’s one that could go well in a Grand National. As for Corach Rambler, I wonder if he’s becoming a bit of a ‘character’? He has that unusual head carriage – sometime high, sometimes normal, going high in a finish when hitting the front … and maybe he spat the dummy a wee bit today. He seems to thoroughly enjoy himself in big fields. Whether that has anything to do with it I don’t know. When asked for an effort four out he found zero – didn’t even make up a length. And he hit the last 3, with a notable error two out.
The Ultima and The National are made for him, and I think he’d go superbly well in a soft ground Hennessy if proper fit (4th last year on good after a poor debut at Carlisle). I just hope she drops her G1 plans for him.
My first analysis of the season and I’m with you Bobby. Good luck.
2.25 Cheltenham 3m1f handicap Good
Potentially some fine value at the fat end of the market, the best of it via Whacker Clan and Swapped.
Whacker Clan is De Bromhead’s second string here. Darragh O’Keefe rides. It’s interesting when a trainer has a fancied horse (Amirite) but runs another one too. Whacker Clan won gamely last time (Tramore, August, soft) He’s won on good ground though his ratings are 5 or 6lbs below that soft ground win. Still, he is young and unexposed and his trainer is in good form. My worry with him is getting caught up in a pace battle – this applies to a few here and there’ll be a busy battle for the lead. You’ll want a stayer, unless some jock takes a big gamble and switches off at the back in the hope they’re crawling up the hill.
I’ll back Whacker Clan EW with Bet365 at 14/1 to 6 places. He is 20/1 to 4 places, 18/1 to 5.Swapped looks way too big at 33s to 4 places and is the best value in the race. 1112 his most recent form figures, two runs ago, his first run for the Pogsons, he won over 3m2f at Southwell by 31 lengths. He went up 11lbs and still ran a fine race to be second over a shorter trip (GS). His best ratings are on good.
Adam Pogson bought him from Nicky Henderson after watching the horse for a long time, believing he’d benefit from a step up in trip. Pogson was spot on and looks to have a bargain at £18,000.
Swapped is another who likes to be prominent. I hope his 3lb claimer Armson keeps his wits about him. I’ll back Swapped to 6 places with Bet365 at 21/1.Hidden Heroics looks too big as well. He’s been supported from 25s to as low as 10s, though Bet365 have him at 16/1 to 4 places. All his best figures are on good (though he has run just twice on other – both GS). He runs well fresh and likes Cheltenham (best rating is here). My one doubt is whether he will last home. He too is usually prominent, but, as I know to my cost, Harry Skelton does not mind dawdling around at the back for most of a race. This time it might just pay off.
Hidden Heroics is 16/1, 14/1 12/1 respectively with Bet365 for 4, 5, and 6 places.Mister Fogpatches ran in a Grade 2 last time (tailed off). He likes Cheltenham – 2nd best rating achieved here – and the ground is fine. He was 6th of 20 in the Kim Muir in March. He caught my eye here mainly because he is the sole runner at the two-day meeting for P Fahy (don’t mistake him for Fahey), and the sole ride for Danny Mullins. He’s hard to win with but could well give you a profit EW at 33/1 to 4 places, 29/1 for 5 or 21/1 for 6: all Bet365.
And finally here is a single-figure one for the faint hearted. Twig has been out of the first 2 just once in his last 15 races (4th). Best form on good (though he too has run on little else). He won last time out – Uttoxeter in July – hanging on despite suffering from heat stress (he was treated after the race). Trainer Pauling hit form today (Friday) at Cheltenham with a winner and a 3rd. Beau Morgan (claims 5) always rides this horse. Morgan’s strike rate over fences is 36%.
Twig looks two or three points too big at 15/2, again with Bet365 to 4 places.Good luck
JoeGiovinco will make up for today. Exceptionally clever at the 5th and saved himself in that unseat where his head was on the turf; the rest of him should really have followed and I hope he has done no damage in twisting his way out of it. Winner was impressive though, and it seemed very much his trip whereas Giovinco wants farther, something you can see from his galloping style alone.
Lucinda on Giovinco the other day: ‘The Brown Advisory looks the logical long-term aim. He’s certainly got the profile for it and ability-wise it looks well within his parameters.’
Well within … that’s a very bold shout and I’ve had a tenner at 20s.
Nemean Lion was impressive last time and looked to me like he’d go better on good ground, though connections always seem to seek easy going, which they will almost certainly get here.
As for Benson, wouldn’t he be better over Hedges?
🗣️ Willie Mullins on SIR GERHARD, per
@SportingLife
:“I’m going to start him off chasing again this season but he’s a horse that’s hard to keep right. I have a feeling we might be changing tack during the season and if his jumping doesn’t hold up he’s one I have earmarked as a Stayers’ Hurdle horse.
“He has the ability and the stamina and is just hard to keep right over fences. If he stays right over fences he’s a Ryanair or Gold Cup horse, but I’ve a funny feeling he might end up back over hurdles.
“He has an official rating of 155 over fences and if his jumping holds up he’s probably well handicapped so a big handicap mid-season might seem the plan – he could be a Thyestes horse and if that doesn’t work out, the Stayers’ Hurdle.”
King Of Steel is better than I thought he was. His mass would have taken some power to haul through that ground. I wonder if they will keep him too easy ground though given how prone big horses can be to injury
On a side note, yesterday offered a fine preview of how a premierisation Saturday would look. Like it?
Mostadahf will surely run given he has won both his races on soft ground, albeit two years ago. It’s hardly a top running of this race.
With GAG here: Point Lonsdale looks much too big at 66/1. O’Brien and Moore, 1 from 1 on heavy, 3 from 3 on soft. Beaten under 4 lengths last time on unfavorable ground (Irish Champion Stakes).
FWIW (probably not much to you) I’ve seen every one of Aidan’s 2-y-olds and none of them moved my needle 1 degree. This fella is completely different.
Nonsense from Brough, in its basic term: non sense. He decries anthropomorphism then says ‘The Grand National is equine fulfilment, not animal abuse.’
Good question, Miss Woodward: I cannot quantify the ethical approach, and I don’t think it is honestly quantifiable. If you accept one unnecessary death, you’re in the game already and committed. Having said, that, if the situation you posit becomes real, I’d. walk away, but more through shame than anything else.
