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You’d worry if it was another yard however no doubt he’s just about to catch fire ..
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
He could, although he’s about to send out some very short priced maidens having their first run of the season and Patrick has admitted the struggled with them in November due to the weather, so a few might be behind schedule.
Jango Baie – how many KG winners were tackling the trip for the first time ?
Banbridge was tackling it for first time over fences, 1 not very good hurdle run over it previously.
I’m excited for the race, should be a cracker hopefully. Hoping whatever happens a few of them go for Gold in March not the Ryanair. This should be a Gold Cup trial after all. If F2F wins it, sure the owner has the reigning champ in the division but it would be Willie’s best dart so maybe it happens still.
Have been changing my mind each day seeking ‘value’, but in the final analysis, I accept the inevitable:
…………………….Might Bite in 2017 was the last favourite to win this. It’s thrown up surprises and we’ve grown used to that, hence the varied opinions on the Irish not having it all their own way here. That’s an opinion I was hoping to come up with here, but I can’t. If Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File are over their exertions in the John Durkan, they should fight this out, clear of the others.
Jangoe Baie, 3rd fav, has had comparatively little racing. He produced a remarkable run from the last to win The Arkle quite comfortably, and raced with zest last time for an easy victory at Ascot. He’s been backed for this in recent days and there is always a chance with improving horses that they will find a lump more in training, which can be measured only when they next race. Jangoe Baie will need to have found about 10lbs to win this, I reckon and taking 10/3 about that is a huge leap of faith. There’s much better value in backing him at 16/1 for the Gold Cup.
The Jukebox Man is the ‘apple of Ben Pauling’s eye’. Everything he trains is the apple of Ben’s eye; he’s a frontline optimist. I liked the horse as a novice, but he went wrong and the ground is drying out at Kempton. The Jukebox Man has never run on good, and if it ends up that dry, I wonder if Ben will run him. I suspect his run style and jumping make him look better than he is, but wish him luck.
Djelo is another I like and, at one point believed he could go right to the top. But the fact he lost his form suddenly and badly last spring irks me. He’s looked very impressive in his two wins this season. A feature of his last one was his pinpoint jumping. Photographers at a Djelo fence will find no light between his body and the birch, and such jumping accuracy is an asset so long as you can travel at a pace to hold your rhythm. If you hit one low when out of rhythm, it can end your chances. Still, of the outsiders, he’d be my EW choice.
Last year’s winner Banbridge is the old man of the group at 9. Usually consistent, his form was in and out last season and the Kempton win was his sole victory. Still, he needed the race last time out, should improve for it and if he also improves for the first time visor he could be running on once again in the straight.
Il Est Francais, chased down late by Banbridge, is on one of his up and down phases. His sole outing on good was in the Kauto Star Novices Chase in 2023, where he blitzed the field. To be fair it took little blitzing; a squeeze of Fairy Liquid would have seen them off.
Il Est Francais tried the same tactics in last year’s King George, but for all he can be spectacular jumping, he’s a bit stiff backed and needs more effort at every fence than the athletic types. That energy drain caught up with him in the final straight as he dropped his back legs in each of three fences there. He had zero left when Banbridge got to his girths. That jumping style will cost him again in this edition, where his plate of challenges is already piled high before you even consider the fences.
And, barring serious mishaps, Master Chewy has no chance and will surely be hunted quietly round in the hoping of picking off the clobbered.
Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior have been running in the highest class for a while now and, at 7, and 8, respectively, are entitled to have more to come. They met in last month’s John Durkan Chase over 20f in Ireland, and it was as hard a race as you’d not want to see any top notcher having at that point of the season.
Fact To File got the more conventional ride of the two, jockey Walsh choosing to stay well off the pace set by Gaelic Warrior who seemed to be enjoying himself immensely. Fact To File picked him up gradually after the turn in, and caught him at the last to lead, but not for long. Gaelic Warrior put his head down and came back for more under the Townend drive, and what an odd feeling it must have been for the jockey. He senses that if he obeys his every instinct and the cries from the devil on his shoulder, he can probably get the horse back up. Yet the angel on his other shoulder is warning him with every kick that he could be leaving the first half of the season at Punchestown’s winning post.
You never know the depth of a horse’s constitution until it is reached, and you never know if it’s been reached until it’s back in a hot race. Trainer Mullins believes both horses are fine, and ready to run, but has acknowledged that the race will be the only judge of that.
Fact To File does not lower his head and stretch his neck in a finish. Gaelic Warrior does. While it doesn’t make Fact To File less of a battler, it offers the suspicion that he might be. Time will tell. As I cannot separate them, I’ll have a reverse forecast.
Good luck.
I’ll be very surprised if the Henderson horse doesn’t rattle a fence or 3
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Gaelic Warrior the one for money now, in to a general 9-4 clear fav.
Jango and Fact To File out to 7-2 in places.Would it be fair to say its quite a unique test for aa Grade 1 be that because of the course configuration or the going which does tend to be on the quicker side for the time of year?
Whatever it is you see horses time after time run repeated good races here and I’m not just talking about the winners, I recall a year Thistlecrack seemed to be ‘finished’ and he came here and ran a great race to finish 2nd. I think he lost to Clan Des Obeaux that year and he seemed to grow wings whenever he came here despite not always showimg his form elsewhere.
That could be against the market principles if nothing else.
Fabulous lineup that could have been even better if the likes of Grey Dawning, Handstands and Haiti Couleurs were taking their chances too. Seems a shame that none of the Betfair Chase lot are here, but tis the modern way.
I will have a couple darts in Djelo and The Jukebox Man. Djelo has done everything right this season and deserves his place in the lineup and The Jukebox Man could be anything.
I won’t be backing him, but I love seeing horses like Master Chewy line up in these races. He’s genuine, consistent, and adds a level of intrigue that some grade 1’s lack I find. That and I love seeing horses step up in trip. Fair play to connections for giving it a go… maybe I will have a go
I’m with Djelo e.w. at 14/1. Cracking price for a horse going the right way.
Really looking forward to what should be a superb race.The front runners (TJM & IEF) could end up taking each other on early doors unless one of them decides to opt out and take a lead – if one doesn’t, they will set it up for a closer and that is why I really hope they will drop GW in today (like they did at both Aintree and Sandown last season) as the tactics in the John Durkan I think was purely as a result of him being really fresh 1st time out and him taking the tactics out of Townend’s hands.
The Kempton stands look proper packed on that ITV camera shot and it shows that if you put the proper races on the crowd will come…..are you watching Jockey Club.
I am not convinced that Djelo is a G1 chaser and his low brush through the top of fences style of jumping could be an issue as he has very little margin for error at the top level.
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