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Yesterday’s lay of the day Ghost Dancer duly won but after going to school on that losing lay I have decided I didn’t really do anything wrong. Horses that were tailed off last time can rebound markedly.
It’ll happen again in the future but I still feel I’m on the right track.
After my smooth transition from laying out and out no hopers to what I call mid-priced doubt fillers I have arrived at Ghost Dancer as todays place market lay in the 4.50 at Leicester.
At 7’s in the place market I reckon that is a good bet win, lose or draw even if it’s trained by a top classer.
My cautious, look before I leap betting mindset suits laying rather than backing though I know there is better value doing the other.
Geoff Persian Heights Huffer packed in training to try tipping, any news on how it’s going for Geoff.
Great initiative this for those of us who are pro all-weather. Hat’s off
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What has John Dunlop got against all-weather by the way. He hardly has a runner on the surface let alone a winner.
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Kentucky placed Bold Arrangement would not have made the top twenty of middle distance european nags in 1986.I ignored the Racing Post Spotlight that Henry Candy was top notch at bringing back a nag after a very long lay off and layed Wiggy Smith in the place market thinking 4’s was a great lay.
Actually it was a great lay just didn’t come off for me. With a smoother passage and a better ride the nag could have even won that decent race. Great training performance but if the bounce theory holds Wiggy will run a stinker next time out.
Henry Rix, Alan Potts and Melvyn Collier if I was to follow telephone or Email tipping services I would be looking at one of these but I have no interest in following anyone.
For me that would be even duller than my current practise of laying no hopers which in any case is about to change as I wanna start laying false favourites and I’m doing a lot of research on how to go about this.
PS That was a fantastic Q & A with Pottsy a bit back, lots of useful tips which went straight into my memory bank.
About a decade ago one of the Sunday broadsheets ran a series of investigations of Tommo’s tipping line. I can’t believe it’s still going.
McCririck once prized out of Tommo that his maximum bet was £10.00. Nothing wrong with that except I have heard Tommo use the phrase Lump On, Lump On[/color:3vus4era] probably a thousand times. Not as bad as Ally Down though
Didn’t Ally Down once say on-air that he didn’t have any of the Racing Channels due to his reluctance to put a shilling in Murdoch’s pocket. Ally Down now writes for the News Of The World. Ally Down is a great wordsmith with turn of phrase up there with Zafonic’s turn of foot but his hypocrisy stinks to high heaven.
I would like to lay Writ shortly at Musselburgh but the place market won’t download for me and I’m not playing at 34 in the win even though I strongly suspect it will be out the back.
Getting back to the form book looking through some old ones from the 80’s and early nineties it’s shocking to see some of the overrounds back then except the 1991 Generous Derby as that was underround. (not as bad as Irish overrounds of that period at least) what with that and off -course betting tax and no Betfair it was hard to come out on top back then. Schooling in public was mostly tolerated as well.
Your citing the right horse Monaazalah but in the wrong race. Monaazalah was a non runner in my race.
I layed Rio in the place market I reckon that’s where I should look first, the place market.
Rio de Janeiro in the 4.50 at Goodwood might be my lay of the day, Best seen over hurdles recently, carrying top on soft ground after an absence of 4 months. (a year on flat)
Win or place market, not sure yet.
Clive also I believe trained racing genius Phil Bull’s last winner Ho Chi Minh or Ho Minh Cho in 1986. Marvellous tribute to his talents that is a horse from Phil.
Very suprised Phil Bull doesn’t have a Wikipedia entry since every other Tom, Dick and Harriet seems to.
I could send Rory’s insult back to him with knobs on but I won’t bother, I just won’t bother. After all cyber abuse is the same shade as the silks of Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum.
Most of my lays are in the 8-20 range that 65 was an extreme case and I wouldn’t go beyond that. Between 1993 and 2007 I made less than 10 bets so I’m just feeling my way back into it and seeing what works for me. OK !!!
The only way I can turn a profit is to be A Scaredy Cat Type Punter, laying horses on Betfair that are hopelessly outclassed, such as Monaazalah in the listed contest at Sandown this afternoon. I laid it at 65 in the place market which to me is a value bet. I’m putting a lot at risk to win very little but this way has got me to 21 trades with an unblemished record. I will carry on this way until I get it wrong and then I will find an alternative strategy.
Terimon is only down for one domestic group 1 but I have seem to remember him winning another as well, was it not the Eclipse? That should be always brought up when people crab Nashwan’s Derby.
Handicaps are not Clive’s speciality of course as his horses are often very badly handicapped due to them running in better races than perhaps other trainers would run them in but I reckon he is a great.
In the last year or two Clive seems to have lost his other big patron Marwan (Crimplene) Al Maktoum. Michael Bell trains for a person of that name now but they are different racing colours so maybe the original passed on.
I always liked the partnership with Mouse Roberts combination myself a perfect fit those two, a perfect fit.
PS I’m not a fan of Michale Caine Bosranic but his title isn’t hereditary Mark Prescott got his becuse his uncle passed on and didn’t have an heir. That info came from George Duffields bio published a couple of years ago which by the way I would recommend to anyone.
Since joining Betfair a few weeks ago I have traded 13 times and been succesful with all 13 and 12 of those were lays. My policy is to identify no hopers that cannot win or be placed (if I’m using the place market) and if they are less than 100/1 I will lay them. Most of those I have layed have ran atrociously but two of them ran much better than I thought and could have cleaned me out completely.
That is the problem if I get it wrong even once my bank will be wiped out completely. Also you usually cannot get more than a fiver on and sometimes the minimum 2.00.
As I grow more confident in interpreting form I will definitely change policy and try laying false favourites, there are usually 2 or 3 every single racing day.
Of all the Dante’s I have seen in the last 20odd years only Erhaab and Reference Point was as impressive. Red Glow ended up being beaten in Aussie sellers did he, this is a major shock and disappointment.
I also remember a nice 2 year old filly Ela Romara who won the lowther. If The Whistling Teal rates a mention so does she.
