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I may have gone over the top with my comments judging by the reactions and perhaps I was reading the original post wrong. There have been several threads on the BF forum based on laying horses at upwards of 33/1 which turn into Paeans of praise for the originator which really get on my wick and I’ve responded as if Spitfire is in the same mould, when I don’t know that and apologise if I’ve rushed to judgement.
The point I wanted to make is that you can’t possibly know if you’re getting value laying big outsiders just because you’re on a big winning run. If the market price is 50/1 then racking up a record of 25 consecutive losers would still not tell you if you had a successful angle (it’s been a long time since I studied statistical significance at school but you would need a sample of thousands to be really confident I reckon). As I suggested, laying a solitary 10/11 shot which lost is statisticlly more significant. It may not have gone unnoticed that I believe the general tone on the forum is in decline and I’m perhaps dealing with my perception of that rather negatively. It’s only because I care, honest.
No mention of Monaazalah’s superb display yesterday, Spitfire? With hindsight (that wonderful thing) I don’t think laying that 65 a place the other day was all that clever, was it?
Well picked up TDK ~ although Monaazalah could only finish 4th in the end, she traded very close to Evens in running and looks a filly who is up to getting black type at some stage. It may have seemed value taking her on when she appeared overfaced at HQ, but if you must lay horses at huge prices, you need to be virtually certain that they will run poorly, and the unpredictable nature of the sport makes that virtually impossible.
The logic for laying Rio De Janeiro is sound enough, as long as the price is as short as it might be (he was 20/1 in the end which looked fairly skinny) but it’s a logic that makes more sense with more fancied runners. For example, Confront was off the course for a long time (almost certainly with physical problems) before running at Great Leighs today but was still sent off at 15/8 in a reasonably competitive race. That is much more my idea of a laying opportunity (I’m not too proud to lay three losers and for the fourth to win by half the track) ~ I believe you need to be going against the crowd in some way to get value. Laying horses which nobody fancies must by its nature be difficult to do without a danger of laying over the odds.
Your citing the right horse Monaazalah but in the wrong race. Monaazalah was a non runner in my race.
I layed Rio in the place market I reckon that’s where I should look first, the place market.
I know it was a different race, but 65 was almost certainly massive value for a place in that race!
That post must be worth some sort of prize, firefox!
A prize for the best suggestion for what prize Firefox’s magnificently patronising post should win.
Colin
A tankard with Moron inscribed upon it
I agree with a fair bit of what he says, but oh the tone of it…..
Can’t see the problem with Firefox’s post. A vaguely patronising manner is hardly going to frighten the TRF horses.
And whilst I sometimes enjoy Clivex’s ‘robust’ literary style, I did chuckle at his new-found concern for ‘tone’. I think of him as a kind of literate Rottweiler guarding a plush home somewhere in West London and this reincarnation as a man of manners is a little disconcerting.
@ Andrew HughesWhilst not aligning myself with firefox, nor for that matter even agreeing with much of his posts, I think he (& others – Neil for example) should be able to post without abuse from senior forumites.
Not much of an insult as far as insults go .. he just seems to be merely pointing out the need for statistical evidence which the more informed punter seems to go for these days, rather than lucky pens, rabbit’s feet and what have you.
Not even a yellow card in my book.
‘Total Moron’ – that’s not much of an insult?
I beg to differ.
lol@Andrew Hughes Part II
I don’t know about clive, but the occasionally irascible carvillshill is going to go f***ing loop the loop when he sees the concluding paragraph. I do hope he’s not been bitten by a sick pooch this afternoon.
Hello,
A MORON:
A stupid person; a dolt.
Psychology A person of mild mental retardation having a mental age of from 7 to 12 years and generally having communication and social skills enabling some degree of academic or vocational education. The term belongs to a classification system no longer in use and is now considered offensive.That covers my behaviour after significant amounts of alchol, or having just done £500 on a 1/2 shot…
Unfortunately I must be something worse than a moron as my wife insists I have the mind of a two year old, and that does not fit in the 7 to 12 parameter…
Take it from me, a Pre-Moron, people have been called a lot worse, so I shouldn’t worry about it…
Now wear is my Postman Pat blanket..
regards,
doyley
Getting back to the form book looking through some old ones from the 80’s and early nineties it’s shocking to see some of the overrounds back then except the 1991 Generous Derby as that was underround. (not as bad as Irish overrounds of that period at least) what with that and off -course betting tax and no Betfair it was hard to come out on top back then. Schooling in public was mostly tolerated as well.
Oh come on, firefox, I wasn’t intending to stir Ithings up. Your superb post did that all on it’s own. You relish a good ding-dong – I have a feeling you could start a punch up in an empty room.
I’m sure carvillshill (who, to avoid accusation and confusion is someone I read, but don’t really know), will be responding.
I still stand by the point that it is one thing tipping and another thing following through with hard cash.
Agree entirely.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I would like to lay Writ shortly at Musselburgh but the place market won’t download for me and I’m not playing at 34 in the win even though I strongly suspect it will be out the back.
I can assure you Firefox that every horse mentioned on my thread was backed by me with hard cash- I’m far from being a theoretical punter!
You are right that the thread was not the sum total of my betting activity for the year, far from it, but merely the selections that were practical to post in good time before their various races- as I said in the very last post I backed plenty of horses last minute who didn’t make the thread.
I don’t know another way to demonstrate publicly that one is profitable, which was the intention, other than letting you sit beside me all day. You are right that the thread doesn’t prove long-term profitability as you cannot know what other bets I’ve had, nor what my results in previous or succeeding years are, but it surely increases the odds that someone makes a profit if they can set out to demonstrate this over a reasonable time period and succeed. I didn’t do it to wave my dick but rather to have something to show when looking for a little Press work- the Weekender slot came directly from sending the thread to the Editor.
@ Andrew Hughes
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