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Yesterday’s lay of the day Ghost Dancer duly won but after going to school on that losing lay I have decided I didn’t really do anything wrong. Horses that were tailed off last time can rebound markedly.
It’ll happen again in the future but I still feel I’m on the right track.
You probably think I’m out to get you Spitfire, but I’m not; however, feeling you’re on the right track by fielding against a 31/1 winner simply beggars belief. I do genuinely admire your honesty in putting this up, and I’d agree with you if the horse in question was an odds on shot for a place. The problem is that you can really only make money laying horses if they are overbet, to use an Americanism and that takes balls. Laying horses only when they are outsiders is leaving yourself open to poor value, and betting at poor value odds will only end in big losses. You cannot hide behind strike rate.
At 31/1 a horse is a good bet (to win) if you believe it has a better than 3.125% chance of winning. As you need a 3.125% strike rate on your bets at 31/1 to break even.
A 31/1 shot is only a good lay if you believe it has a worse than 3.125% chance of winning.
However, that is if you do not take commision in to account. So it should in fact be even lower than 3.125%.
Every horse has a price to back and a price to lay.
Sorry Flash, could not resist.
Mark
Value Is EverythingA 31/1 shot is only a good lay if you believe it has a worse than 3.125% chance of winning.
Not true. It’s only a good lay if it’s ‘true’ chance is less than 3.125%, it matters little what you ‘believe’ it should be.
I actually enjoyed reading that latest from Rory, more constructive this time. Always open to advice me always open that’s why I loved that Q and A with Alan Potts.
Approaching 50 trades on Betfair I’m still in profit and that Ghost Dancer lopped only about 15% off those profits. I was using the place market anyway and would never have layed Ghost in the win.
10% of Betfair customers win money off the other 90% and I am certain I will always belong in the 10% category, absolutely certain of that.
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