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This sort of debate develops into an inconclusive " I like Jonjo, so he’s good" versus " I hate Jonjo, so he’s no good" squabble all too easily.
I think the woolly concept of "stable form" is part of the problem; whatever it may be, " stable form" is far from being stable; it is a variable factor, imo, and may not govern the performance of each and every horse in a yard.
It is likely that I have not understood all the points made, but as a punter I have to make decisions. These are:
I shall never be backing BJK, unless his price is in double figures.
I shall be backing ED at Cheltenham, providing he runs, and I can get a double figure price.
The supposed form of Jonjo doesn’t affect my views or actions, so I’ll say no more on this thread.
Sean Rua.
A friend of mine, who has racing contacts in the North of England, often sings the praises of this trainer, and I would agree that he has a decent strike rate.
When I checked FOF’s list of names on another thread, I was disappointed not to find a mention of AS.
Sean Rua.
I am confident that the Jonjo runners will do much better at the Cheltenham Festival.
Exotic Dancer is my bet.
BJK is on my list of " hyped, but hopeless", I’m afraid. Very poor today, imo.
Sean Rua.
Thanks, Charley and TDK.
I found the blog very interesting.
Speed and time figures in horseracing seem a problematic area to me, so I’m unable to make any comment, other than that I have slowly accepted the view that horses actually slow down towards the end of a race; the one that slows the least is the winner in most cases.
A bit rough and ready, and it played hell with my methods based on "turn of foot" and " showed good acceleration" etc.
At present, all I can offer is that it is a long time till the Cheltenham Festival, and that is one unique course, imo.
The leading contenders look very good at this stage.Btw, I was a bit surprised by the tongue tie.
Sean Rua.
Thanks, Charley D.
I was tempted to find the blog, till i read TDK’s post. Now totally confused.
Personally, I think the Kempton time was slow, but conditions may have been the cause.
I note also that a tongue tie was worn. Is this the norm for KS?Sean Rua.
Interesting opinions.
Does any of the time and speed experts have anything "factual" regarding the times of both KS and Denman?
I fear I’m getting jaded and I admit my peepers are past their best, but, frankly, the victories of both Denman and Kauto Star – though very impressive – looked a bit "slow" to me.
Yes, a terrible thing to say, but both races seemed to have a " dreamy, slo-mo" quality.
No doubt the figures will prove that I must have been the one who was dreaming, and I’m sure the ground didn’t help.Sean Rua.
One stat that is often quoted on racing messageboards is that
" 80% of winners are to be found in the RP Selection Box tips".
I believe this could be roughly correct, but I’m not sure whether it will help.
Perhaps, you should study split-staking or dutching as well?As Artemis says, it is unlikely that the obvious ones will prove profitable in the long run.
On an exchange forum, a guy was laying the selection of the tipster with the most winners. This was using the RP nap challenge table and was based on several years results.
It seems that laying the selections of this "successful" tipster proved more profitable than backing them!Sean Rua.
Carvershill,
I think FOF is on about the SL website, which does price up the cards. Their prices can be considerably different from the RP betting forecast or, for those who prefer the long-winded way of saying it, from the betting forecast given in the RP.
Again, The RP online betting forecast can change overnight on occasion.
I have no data, but I would not be surprised to find that RP betting forecast favs do every bit as well as actual RSP favs.
Just my impression.
Sean Rua.
No, Artemis, it doesn’t use the ED proviso.
I think the theory goes something along the lines of
"when the first horse has lost, then the only part of the EW double bet that can give a return is the Place Double bit."
Apparently, in mathematical terms, the fact that, ALL the return goes on the place part only, is what gives the punter his edge here.
I asked in three different shops and after testing the figures, all three managers agreed that it paid more than doing two independent EW singles.
Still doesn’t make sense to me, but never mind!Sean Rua.
Perhaps, when I said that the fact, that I found some people in the racing game unpleasant, is maybe my fault, because, nowadays, I’m unsociable, and just a one-track-minded punter, I should have mentioned that I, too, was young once, many decades ago.
In fact, when I lived in Australia, I went to Bangkok ( Pat Pong, of all places) at least ten times. This was when it was a R&R destination for Vietnam G.I.s.
I thought it was good at the time.Though now frail and feeble with age, I can still just about remember what it was like to be bursting with testosterone, "coltish", contrary, and confrontational.
Now I’m just a crabbit ould bggr, but good luck to those who haven’t seen what I’ve seen. It’ll be there waiting for them, if they live long enough.I would never have thought of a thread like this that names names; too negative for my limited grey matter, which struggles over such things as what will win the last at Wolver etc.
I guess I’ve led a very sheltered life.
As for the persons in the "bad egg " list, I expect nothing from them, and I ask nothing of them, so, as they used to say down Newmarket way, "I ain’t too fussed", really. They don’t have much impact on me, so I’m a lucky boy, am I not?
Sean Rua.
Fair point, Mike.
People are people, whatever.
Time to get ready for Ludlow tomorrow. I think it will freeze tonight.
Sean Rua.
Yes, Artemis, I was always taught what you have said, then,
some math expert pointed out that more money could be made from two losing, but placed horses, by playing them in an EW double.Although I argued and argued against this idea, I finally had to admit grudgingly that because
ALL the return ( inc the stake) from the first placed leg of the bet goes onto the PLACE ONLY part of the second leg of the double.
This seems to boost overall returns when the second runner places too.
Sean Rua.
Paul,
Perhaps it’s because the only time I go out is when I go racing, so I can only speak as I find.
Like I said earlier, I only go for the racing and the punting, so my views on anything else may not be worth worrying about.
Sean Rua.
" Now, if I were to set out to find a pleasant, sociable, morally sound, well-rounded, stable group of people, I’m afraid the racing industry is the last place I’d look!
I love racing, but I have to admit that it has some of the most horrible, boastful, aggressive, drunken, boring, untrustworthy folk I’ve ever met in the world. "—-
That’s what I said, and it’s a true reflection of MY own experience.
It’s good that we don’t all like the same thing, imo. Perhaps, I’m just unsociable. If so, the flaw is on me.
I’m glad if other people have better experiences. Good luck to them. I’m only in it for the punting and the racing so my view is probably blinkered.
If any really want an example of bad behaviour – and I can’t think why they would – I’d say there was SOME at Longchamp on both the Saturday and the Sunday of the Arc weekend.
MOST people were fine, and I find that the norm.I’ve only ever met five persons, who are posters on this board, and I thought they were all very nice company. That’s the way I like it.
Sean rua.
Heard about three hours ago, that Mr Lynch will be getting back his license to ride, if he hasn’t done so already.
Do any here think that he would be classed as "lowlife" too? If so, would the moral 60 million refuse to back any of his mounts?
If they really do feel strongly about this – enough to put their money where their mouth is – I would expect prices about his rides to be very good.
Sean Rua.
