December 13, 2007 at 12:50 #5958
No one should expect these type of bets to win every day but I can assure you if one keeps to the same betting shop and does these all the time it will only end in tears as you will end up getting banned.
It is nothing to do with form or what jockey is in the saddle or who trains it.
It works equally as well on the South African or French racing.
It is nothing new but something bookies never promote.
THE RULES ARE SIMPLE.
(1) LOOK FOR 8 RUNNER RACES ONLY.
YOU NEED TWO RACES THE SAME DAY OF JUST 8 RUNNERS.
(2) THE BET IS TO SELECT THE SECOND CLEAR FAVOURITE AND TO BACK IT EACH WAY WITH THE SECOND CLEAR FAVOURITE EACH WAY IN THE OTHER 8 RUNNER RACE.
SO YOU WRITE FOR EXAMPLE TODAY
1-20 TAUNTON OPERA DU COER
AND 9-20 WOLV THE CARPET MAN
Â£WHATEVER EACH WAY DOUBLE.
Those are the only qualifiers today as far as I can see.
It is based on the fact that on course and where the market is formed no one could bet ew in 8 runner races anyway so in theory the races with this few runners on course are win only.
This works really well when the favourite is odds on as the price of our one is better.
Now here is the rub!
I cannot post them up every day but if someone wants to do that and to also calculate where the bets stand on a +/- situation please feel free to carry on!
So lets do them for just Â£1.00 ew?December 13, 2007 at 13:37 #130340
Let’s keep this going – I will post if I can remember or Seagull is busy!!
So, anybody please feel free to join in if one of us doesn’t post.
Regards – Matron
December 14, 2007 at 09:11 #130466
Yes, not a bet that bookmakers like, especially for decent stakes.
A twist on the bet is to see if you can get it ED or ‘Equally Divided’ instead of win to win/place to place. For those who don’t know, this means a an each way single on the first selection with any returns divided equally and invested win and place(each-way) on the next selection.
This method of each way betting ensures that your winners are not counted as place horses, but has the disadvantage that if all your selections win, your returns are substantially reduced.
ED betting is not available online as far as I know.December 14, 2007 at 17:25 #130534
On the first day 13 Dec
there were 2 selections
Opera De Coeur
The Carpet Man
Yes I have heard of doing this type of bet E.D. but no one in Sussex takes them.
3 horses Friday were
Blue Hedges Lost
Rich James 2nd 7/2
Twelve Steps won 3/1
today -6.00 stake
days loss -3.28
loss b/f -4.00
loss c/f -7.28
think thats correctDecember 14, 2007 at 18:57 #130545
I was working from my daily paper and took the first two races.
I will delete my post.
Regards – Matron
December 17, 2007 at 08:16 #130880
So Sat -10 points
Sunday There were no bets.
so at present -17.28December 17, 2007 at 19:34 #130951
When I used to be keen on this bet, I found myself almost hoping that the first leg was placed rather than a winner!
A bit silly, but it meant that, in effect, my bet going onto the second was a "place double". Sometimes paid disproportionately well when odds were low.
If I fancied the second selection to win, I would sometimes have another small bet, win only, if the first selection had not won.
The ED option seemed to be six of one and half a dozen of the other. I never did decide whether it helped in the long run.
Now you’ve rekindled my interest, I may give this EW Double idea a spin once again. Thanks for the thread!
Sean Rua.December 18, 2007 at 08:09 #130993
If you are able to bet race by race by any means, you can control your bet and your stakes by betting two singles rather than a double. You can also have your choice of SP, taking a price, Tote or Exchange. No reason why you need to have a double unless you are taking early prices.
You might have Â£20 ew on your first at 8/1, which if placed(1/5) returns Â£52.
You might then have Â£32 to win on the second with Betfair at 10.0(9/1) and Â£20 for a Tote Place or a whole myriad of possibilities.
Sometimes we forget that all multiple bets are simply a series of single bets. If you are able to, you can reduce them to singles and control your stakes and broaden your options, even deciding to halt when you feel like it.December 19, 2007 at 08:31 #131158
monday 17 dec
Valhilen won 3/1
Blast The Past won 3/1
no other qualifiers
-19.28December 19, 2007 at 09:44 #131175
Won at 4/1 Seagull.
December 19, 2007 at 22:51 #131269
Yes, Artemis, I was always taught what you have said, then,
some math expert pointed out that more money could be made from two losing, but placed horses, by playing them in an EW double.
Although I argued and argued against this idea, I finally had to admit grudgingly that because
ALL the return ( inc the stake) from the first placed leg of the bet goes onto the PLACE ONLY part of the second leg of the double.
This seems to boost overall returns when the second runner places too.
Sean Rua.December 20, 2007 at 08:43 #131291
If you are talking about Equally Divided(E/D) each way bets compared to win to win/place to place, I think it’s just a question of preference.
The gains you describe from two places in a double have to be compared to the losses from a winner that counts only as a place. In probability and pay off terms, I don’t believe there is much in it. As in all forms of betting, you get what you pay for in terms of risk and reward.December 21, 2007 at 09:10 #131424
Its not doing well at the moment though
19 aug 5 selections only 1 placed
so 5 sel is 10 doubles
l b/f -19.28
1 double unplaced
-41.28December 21, 2007 at 13:14 #131439
No, Artemis, it doesn’t use the ED proviso.
I think the theory goes something along the lines of
"when the first horse has lost, then the only part of the EW double bet that can give a return is the Place Double bit."
Apparently, in mathematical terms, the fact that, ALL the return goes on the place part only, is what gives the punter his edge here.
I asked in three different shops and after testing the figures, all three managers agreed that it paid more than doing two independent EW singles.
Still doesn’t make sense to me, but never mind!
Sean Rua.December 21, 2007 at 18:40 #131456
The simplest example I could think of:
A Â£1.00 EW double(win to win, place to place, both horses 5/1(1/5 odds), both placed.
Two singles return Â£4.00
The double returns Â£4.00
However, if you take the price of both horses up to 10/1, things look different
Two singles return Â£6.00
The double returns Â£9.00
This seems to back up the maths and the three managers, but it only appears that way. If you do a full analysis of risk and reward, it should show both sets of bets to be the same.
To do this you have to view the bets in two stages and most importantly start with only Â£2.00 for each contingency so that you are comparing like with like. Without going into the maths, the key is that with an ew double, once the first horse only places, there is no prospect of benefitting from the second horse winning. Dividing the bet into singles at each stage allows for either horse to win or both place to achieve a return.
It’s tricky and I could be proved wrong, but probabilities always work in such a way that your reward is commensurate with your risk
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