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I know that the betting forecasts printed by the Racing Post are merely a prediction of the likely market, but it would be nice to think that they would bare some resemblance to the view bookmakers will take when pricing up the same race.
So who actually compiles the odds for the Racing Post – is it down to the person previewing the contest, or do they employ someone to form markets in the same way Ladbrokes or Hills do?
It’s not something I’ve ever really thought about, as I don’t form my own markets (or assign a desired price to a potential bet – I’m not a believer in the ‘value’ approach), but after looking at their forecast for the opener at Exeter tomorrow I thought it worth asking about.
Last time out, Shanxi Girl was 9/4F for a handicap at Wincanton, following a pleasing victory at Exeter. She unseated her rider in that race, which was won by Festival Flyer (at 14/1) who reopposes today. In the aforementioned race they carried 11-11 and 10-2 respectively, and are due to carry 11-5 and 11-4 today, yet are forecast to both go off at 10/1. Now with such a massive turnaround in the weights, in the favour of Shanxi Girl, how can their prices be so different from when they met previously?
As it happens I quite like the look of a different a horse, at a bigger price, but any ‘value’ seekers would surely be steeming into the Hobbs horse with ‘RPBET.COM’…?
Personally, I would never take any notice of the RP Betting Forecast.
Here are just a few of their forecasts for today.
Bernard. RP say 20/1. Actual price is 8/1 generally
Go Johnny. RP say 12/1. Actual price is at best 7/2
In Accord. RP say 4/1. Actual price is 10/1The above are just a few examples from Exeter. I know horses drift and get backed but these prices are generally how they opened up and haven’t drifted or been backed, showing that the RP was way off with thier forecast.
I’m not criticising the RP as it must be a tough job, I’m just highlighting what you are saying LGR. They do get it wrong, and therefore it’s best to ignore them.
As for the example you gave, I see Shanxi Gril is about 6 points lower than the other horse, supporting your claim that the RP were wrong.
Mike
As far as I know, the RP forecasts are compiled by the Spotlight writer for the meeting. I can’t help thinking that there’s a clash of interest between the two tasks.
Rob
So who actually compiles the odds for the Racing Post – is it down to the person previewing the contest, or do they employ someone to form markets in the same way Ladbrokes or Hills do?
It is down to the person previewing the contest.
All successful long-term betting strategies involve getting better odds for an event than the likelihood of that event happening, even if assigning probabilities – "value betting" – is not done explicitly.
I’d say that using past information about the market perception of a horse’s chance is important in determining the likely market perception of the same horse’s chance in future contests, which is what you are referring to with Shanxi Girl above and which got an airing in this:
These are the strike rates for all the RP forecasts at the sharp end of the market since 2000.
<1/2 78.57
1/2 – 4/6 60.07
8/11 – 20/21 53.69
evens – 6/5 47.92
5/4 – 11/8 41.72
6/4 – 13/8 38.75
7/4 – 15/8 33.72
2/1 – 95/40 29.93
5/2 – 11/4 25.63
3/1 – 7/2 21.01
I’d have said that on the whole their a very good general indication of a horses chance in the race itself. They’ve certainly been remarkably consistant given the difficulty of the task itself.
Personally, I would never take any notice of the RP Betting Forecast.
Here are just a few of their forecasts for today.
Bernard. RP say 20/1. Actual price is 8/1 generally
Go Johnny. RP say 12/1. Actual price is at best 7/2
In Accord. RP say 4/1. Actual price is 10/1The above are just a few examples from Exeter. I know horses drift and get backed but these prices are generally how they opened up and haven’t drifted or been backed, showing that the RP was way off with thier forecast.
I’m not criticising the RP as it must be a tough job, I’m just highlighting what you are saying LGR. They do get it wrong, and therefore it’s best to ignore them.
As for the example you gave, I see Shanxi Gril is about 6 points lower than the other horse, supporting your claim that the RP were wrong.
Mike
Mikky,
When you say they haven’t been backed, that is the price they are on Betfair. Anyone can price a race up when they have a Betfair market to look at.
How many runners today? How many examples are they wrong with?
Rather unfair to put all ‘Spotlight writers’ in the same basket. Some are clearly much better than others, however I don’t think it would be fair to either (AWJ) or (BDO) to point out which.
I’d have said that on the whole their a very good general indication of a horses chance in the race itself. They’ve certainly been remarkably consistant given the difficulty of the task itself.
Agreed. In my opinion the task of trying to forecast SP (the remit of the RP forecast) is significantly more tricky than ‘simply’ compiling a personal betting tissue. One has only to witness the volatility in the last few minutes of the live market, in response to weight-of-money, to realise that the early markets, be they ‘RP forecast’, exchange or bookmakers ‘early birds’, are no more than educated shots-in-the-dark; admittedly they become less dark and more educated as the morning hours tick by.
As such RP forecast ‘ricks’ are only to be expected and personally I regard it as churlish to criticise the compiler when they occur.
Smithy,
I take your point, but my main point was that the RP get it wrong sometimes and therefore it’s best to take no notice of their forecasts – that’s just my own personal view.
Didn’t Go Johnny start at around 5/2 or something, challenging for favouritism – whereas the RP Forecast had him as the 12/1 outsider. It wasn’t put in at 13.0 on Betfair and then backed down to 4.5, it was put in at around 5.0 I believe, and like you hinted at, was the reason the bookies only had him at 7/2.
Like I’ve said, I’m not criticisng the RP, whoever does the forecasts has a hell of a job to do an does it well generally.
Mike
Sadly I’ve just read that Go Johnny had to be put down. Thanks for the memories and RIP.
Mike
You might not take any notice of the forecasts, MikkyMo, but plenty do judging by the early markets on Betfair.
About 20 quid has been matched on the Southwell market for tomorrow despite the fact that they have been available all day. Where are all these odds-compiling genii out there – shouldnt they be getting involved – or are they waiting until the RP betting forecasts come out to give them a clue?
It’s a thankless task to be honest – get it right and no-one says anything. Get one wrong, and the aftertiming brigade come to the oche. That said, it is one thing being criticised on a public forum by people who usually have some idea what they are talking about – it is another entirely when the likes of Matt Chapman and Steve Beal want to get involved!
No Rory – it isnt a game of bluff, more double bluff.
The really shrewd RP tissue makers put in their fancies way too short.
They then get the guffawing chimps to mock their “ridiculous” tissue price when they have seen the bigger price on Betfair and the price then snowballs out to a decent value price.
If it hadn’t been for your use of the ‘guffawing chimps’ line, I could have taken umbrage at that!
I do wish people would stop referring to these forecasts as ‘Racing Post prices’ – they are not the opinion of the paper, they are the opinion of the Spotlight writer.
As pointed out, some writers are better at this aspect of the job than others, but Smithy is right, you want to have a look at the markets on the nights when the RP website hasn’t been updated and compare them to the usual nights when they have been updated. Liquidity drops by a lot and the prices are usually all over the shop.About 6 or 7 years ago a guy I knew told me he could get on at Racing Post prices for UK racing. It was wintertime and I spent every evening looking for ricks at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Lingfield. Betfair was in its infancy at the time. I copped a right few quid before his bookie called a halt, the only downside being that it took me two years to get paid!
This thread also brings me way back to when my Dad’s bookie used to lay us the prices in the Mirror for Irish racing- they were compiled by Tony Sweeney, and were’nt too far out. Sadly again, inevitably, it didn’t last….
I also remember times when pre Betfair there was only one daily and you’d get some major ricks- you’d be praying the course bookies followed the paper, sometimes they did. The whole early price thing nowadays is totally Betfair driven: the art of the early-price tissue is just about dead.
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