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Overall it must be a thankless task pricing up every horse race every day as basically it’s all just a guessing game.
However the odds compilers at Cantor Sport and Sporting Index seem to be spot on when they make a market.
I know that they have more time to concentrate as they have far fewer markets to price up and they use the stats firms a lot but the knowledge they have can be used to your advantage.
I know sods law will determine they get this one wrong but in the upoming football match between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur S.Index. go 10.75-11.25 on the corner market whilst Cantor go 10.8 -11.
So they both think there will be around 11 corners in that match.However on betfair at present 9 or less corners is the market favourite at 2.4.
13 or more corners are currently 2.5 whilst 10-12 corners are 2.7 (a 17/10 poke before commission) the outsider of the 3 markets.So two of the biggest spread firms have the betfair outsider as the favourite and I know what one I would back.
In last nights Everton Game they both had had the corner market spot on.
This time yesterday it was the second fav on betfair.I know sods law will determine they get this one wrong but in the upoming football match between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur S.Index. go 10.75-11.25 on the corner market whilst Cantor go 10.8 -11.
So they both think there will be around 11 corners in that match.However on betfair at present 9 or less corners is the market favourite at 2.4.
13 or more corners are currently 2.5 whilst 10-12 corners are 2.7 (a 17/10 poke before commission) the outsider of the 3 markets.So two of the biggest spread firms have the betfair outsider as the favourite and I know what one I would back.
Sorry, Seagull but that’s simply an incorrect reading of the market by you. The Betfair market also favours the mid point of the corners line to be around 11, but they make it a bigger price because all the "rags" are lumped in with the overs and unders. Nine or less has nine possible outs while the "middle" only has three ~ hence the slightly bigger price. If you break the % probability for each aspect and then reframe the individual markets then you will see that they are in agreement.
Speaking of pre-betfair days, does anyone recall the wonderful days of luvbet?
Yes, I think that they were quite courageous (or foolhardy) to price up every race the night before.
When they began it was often possible to get on for reasonable amounts at silly prices in maiden races, the same maiden subsequently returning an SP in low single figures. Towards the end they were forced to put in place a risk management system that seemed to half the price of most of the field! The payment cheques (almost) always arrived on the Tuesday, having been dated the previous Sunday. The cheques were drawn on a different bookmaker (no mention of Luvbet) and signed by a woman, as I recall.
They were Irish, from Cork I think.Their site was a lurid pink but great for a while. What I remember is my maximum bet being progressively reduced to about 2.50- true trendsetters, blazing the trail where mighty firms like Boyles and Sporting Odds dared to follow.
About 6 or 7 years ago a guy I knew told me he could get on at Racing Post prices for UK racing. It was wintertime and I spent every evening looking for ricks at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Lingfield. Betfair was in its infancy at the time. I copped a right few quid before his bookie called a halt, the only downside being that it took me two years to get paid!
This thread also brings me way back to when my Dad’s bookie used to lay us the prices in the Mirror for Irish racing- they were compiled by Tony Sweeney, and were’nt too far out. Sadly again, inevitably, it didn’t last….
I also remember times when pre Betfair there was only one daily and you’d get some major ricks- you’d be praying the course bookies followed the paper, sometimes they did. The whole early price thing nowadays is totally Betfair driven: the art of the early-price tissue is just about dead.I think it’s a bit of swings and roundabouts and have won and lost out. I can get on at RP or SL prices because of where I live……..I got a real weird one with Nevertika who was waiting for……..keen as mustard I looked at the race cards on either the SL or the RP and it was quoted at 11/4 so called in my bet in straight away and took the price… I thought was a 2/1 shot at best……..I went back for a look a few hours later and the other papers had it at 11/10…….bookie paid me ok and wasn’t moaning about it, but he reckons it might have been a error. I reckon it was a case of bad judgment, but then I would
I find those sort of differences are far and few between nowadays……seems like the betting world is getting smaller and smaller and the chances of someone messing up are very remote..unfotunately!!!Rory
I do understand how the betfair market works. I know that for instance that on the unders market for example that there are 9 possible outcomes.However I feel it is safe to assume that at least 6 of these possible outcomes are never likely to happen. So far this season the lowest total of corners has been 8.
Again on buying the corners anything over 15 is unlikely to happen.
So if we concentrate on 10-12 corners this is likely to be the outcome.
The average number of corner per match in the premiership so far this season is 9.5 but Tottenham and Arsenal have an average of 11.025 between them.So the 10-12 market on betfair at 3.05 could be the one.
( To have a bit of interest I have backed that one)Ladrokes go 7/4 on 11-13.
Basically the point I was making that these spread firms are normally spot on when they price something up whereas the ’tissue’ market for horse racing is a very much hit or miss affair.
You must be in a time warp FOF……..hope you’re sitting down…..the Sporting Life is gone- yes gone!……..can you get me 5000-1000 Cloudy Lane today please……..will wire the cheque immediately to your Oriental hideaway…..have another Mai-Tai on me………………
Fixed-odds markets are essentially concerned with identifying the median point of a range of outcomes – you are either right or wrong, and that is it – spread markets with the mean point of a range of outcomes – it matters how right or wrong you are – and the two can be very different.
Carvershill,
I think FOF is on about the SL website, which does price up the cards. Their prices can be considerably different from the RP betting forecast or, for those who prefer the long-winded way of saying it, from the betting forecast given in the RP.
Again, The RP online betting forecast can change overnight on occasion.
I have no data, but I would not be surprised to find that RP betting forecast favs do every bit as well as actual RSP favs.
Just my impression.
Sean Rua.
No Rory – it isnt a game of bluff, more double bluff.
The really shrewd RP tissue makers put in their fancies way too short.
They then get the guffawing chimps to mock their “ridiculous” tissue price when they have seen the bigger price on Betfair and the price then snowballs out to a decent value price.
So that’s where I’ve been going wrong!
I know that the betting forecasts printed by the Racing Post are merely a prediction of the likely market, but it would be nice to think that they would bare some resemblance to the view bookmakers will take when pricing up the same race.
So who actually compiles the odds for the Racing Post – is it down to the person previewing the contest, or do they employ someone to form markets in the same way Ladbrokes or Hills do?
It’s not something I’ve ever really thought about, as I don’t form my own markets (or assign a desired price to a potential bet – I’m not a believer in the ‘value’ approach), but after looking at their forecast for the opener at Exeter tomorrow I thought it worth asking about.
Last time out, Shanxi Girl was 9/4F for a handicap at Wincanton, following a pleasing victory at Exeter. She unseated her rider in that race, which was won by Festival Flyer (at 14/1) who reopposes today. In the aforementioned race they carried 11-11 and 10-2 respectively, and are due to carry 11-5 and 11-4 today, yet are forecast to both go off at 10/1. Now with such a massive turnaround in the weights, in the favour of Shanxi Girl, how can their prices be so different from when they met previously?
As it happens I quite like the look of a different a horse, at a bigger price, but any ‘value’ seekers would surely be steeming into the Hobbs horse with ‘RPBET.COM’…?
I learned to do my own forecast for the horses I wanna play, it’s not so difficult.
Thanks Sean for putting CH right but I have a confession to make……..I had no idea the newspaper had gone
How can you guys survive without the SL?
So what racing papers do you have now?
Racing Post I presume……..any others?
The best decision you can go by is your own Letsgetracing and its all the more thrilling knowing you picked that winner of your own knowledge and study rather then another persons .
You must be in a time warp FOF……..hope you’re sitting down…..the Sporting Life is gone- yes gone!……..can you get me 5000-1000 Cloudy Lane today please……..will wire the cheque immediately to your Oriental hideaway…..have another Mai-Tai on me………………
Definitely is a bit of a time warp but living in the past ain’t so bad.
I just had 2 single and another double at SL prices.
Harchibald 4/5 Kauto Star 4/5
I reckon they will start 4/7 and 4/6 so long may it continue.
Incidentally if Kauto gets beat at Kempton that will be bad……..If he then loses at Cheltenham I may need you to send me 1000 sheckles
Cheque??? do you bank with the Royal Bank of Laughter?.
I find those sort of differences are far and few between nowadays……seems like the betting world is getting smaller and smaller and the chances of someone messing up are very remote..unfotunately!!!
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