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1 pt win Roman Villa Ladbroke Hurdle Sat 12/1 Paddy Power and others.
May be a bit unlikely to get in but is an intended declaration, so it’s money back if he doesn’t get in. If he does he’ll look very sexy off a low weight- met a good one in Jack the Giant the last day and gave him a race.
Void (Balloted out)
1 pt win Mith Hill 2.25 Bangor 10/1 Hills
Goes well after a recent run (thanks Mounty)
3rd 7/1 -1pt.
1 pt win Mr Fluffy 3.10 Newbury 10/1 Hills
Goes well in small fields where he can organise himself at his fences.
3rd 11/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Benefit Night Paddy Power Chase 27th Dec Leopardstown
10/1 generally.
Another to have on our side in this race, it looks like the intention is to run judging by Betfair. Ran a good third to God’s horse and Gazza’a Girl in the Troytown at Navan first time out- may reverse placings with the mare on better terms and stripping fitter here.
Unpl 8/1 -1pt.1/2 pt each-way No Full 40/1 Ladbrokes Paddy Power Chase Leopardstown 27th Dec
He is an intended runner, so I can’t imagine him being this price on the day which will put us in a good trading position.
3rd 16/1 +4.5 pts.1 pt win Cloudy Lane 2.35 Haydock
Take the best early price about him in the morning- he’s 9/2 with Paddy P tonight- that or better will do.
Conditions are perfect for him here at a track he loves.
Won 10/3 +4.2 pts.(5%R4)
1 pt win Black Jack Ketchum 1.40 Ascot
Total opposite here- I expect this horse to drift tomorrow morning. He’s 4/1 on Betfair now, he could touch 5/1 tomorrow, so take a guaranteed price or back him on Betfair. That’s simply too big on the balance of his form despite concerns about the form of his stable. I’m keen to be against Hardy stepping up in trip and Kasbah Bliss doesn’t convince me he stays either.
Likely no bet, typing this 20mins before- too short for me unless 7/2+
NO BET.(5/2)
1 pt win Regal Heights 12.20 Haydock
Ideally would like softer ground but has a lot going for him, incuding a hurdles mark lower than his chase one. Should be at least 8/1.
2nd 14/1 (traded at 1/5 in-running and no, I didn’t) -1pt.
1 pt each-way Countess Trifaldi 2.05 Haydock 9/1 guaranteed Betfred.
3rd in the 4 mile chase at the Festival in March, was second in October over an inadequate trip at Thurles. All she does is stay, doesn’t look badly in on the Cheltenham run.
3rd 7/1 +.8 pt.3 pts win November Papa Golf 1.50 Leopardstown 6/1 generally
If this isn’t a God plot I didn’t overeat yesterday. The usual 3 runs on unsuitable ground for a handicap mark, today will be the day.
Unpl 5/1 -3pts.
1 pt win Maca Rince 1.20 Leop 10/1 with Coral but may even get bigger.
Fillies have won the last 2 runnings- always like proven form over hurdles against the supposed Flat good things until the latter prove they like the winter game.
unpl 8/1 -1pt.
1 pt win Kranji 3.00 Leop
Can’t see much pace in this race so he could get his own way in front which is the key to him- a bit disappointed with the best-price 4/1, if he gets bigger will be having more on.
Won 4/1 +4 pts.Lay 1 pt Geeveem Welsh National
We have 50 pts-2 pts total, so it would be rude not to hedge- advise wait until the morning as I think he’ll be popular tomorrow- go up to 12/1 if necessary.
5th 12/1 +1 pt.
Lay 1 pt win .5 pt place No Full Paddy Power Chase
We have 60 pts- 1.5 pts win, and 5 pts-.5 pt place, so hedge at around 22/1 and 5/1 the place and you’re left with a lovely bet.
3rd 16/1 +1.5 pts.1.30 Leopardstown
1 pt each-way Sizing Australia 25/1 Paddy Power
P 16/1 -2pts
1 pt win Santa’s Son 5/1 or better.
Unpl 6/1 -1 pt.
I want to take on Drunken Disorderly and think Callherwhatulike may be overrated. Really like Santa’s Son, may have more on if 6/1 or better. Sizing will run much better this way around.
2.00 Leopardstown
2 pts win Sonnyandjoe 6/1 guaranteed Stan James
Want to take on Sweet Kiln, who will cost me money if she ever wins her first grade one. I also think she’s better at 2 1/2m.
2nd 7/1 -2 pts.1 pt win Jazz Messenger 1.55 Leopardstown 9/4 Tote, Hills.
ground should be soft enough for him to confirm form with Farmer Brown
3rd 15/8 -1 pt.
1 pt win Oscar Dan Dan 3.25 Leop if 3/1 or better.
Ran an amazing race to win at Thurles on Sunday after being left at least 15l- if that race hasn’t left a mark he must be hard to beat here.
writing this 10 mins before, will be no bet (2/1)December 2007
Staked 55.5 pts
Loss 2.3 pts
Slightly disappointing to register the first losing month but near-misses at 40/1 and 14/1 meant I was happy with the selections.2007
Staked 195.7 pts.
Profit 81.45 pts.
42% profit on turnover.1 pt win Officier de Reserve 2.10 Chelt best morning price (4/1 generally tonight)
Looked an improving sort at Newbury, can defy a rise here.
Unpl 4/1 -1 pt.2007
Staked 195.7 pts.
Profit 81.45 pts.
42% profit on turnover.Well done mate
You’ll need more figures like this when your kid comes along!
When is the wife/gf due anyway?
1 pt win Wild Cane Ridge 3.15 Ayr 10/3 guaranteed Betfred.
His record at Ayr is 3/3 and he loves heavy ground- I think he can outclass this field and was prepared to back him at 3/1, so current offers of 10/3 are fine.
Won 4/1 +4 pts.2 weeks and counting DB for the mad dash to the Coombe! Happy New Year!
Pierse Hurdle Ante Post
2 pts win, 1 pt place Barker 16/1 generally.The first big ante post race of the year in Ireland, it is one of my favourites as there are a number of strong trends relating to age, weight and experience. This horse fits them all to a t and comes here on the back of a highly impressive win at Fairyhouse- have a look on ATR, you’ll never see an easier winner. Of course he’s taken a hike for that but it may not be enough to stop him. His trainer landed two nice touches within days before Christmas with him and Taradoun and clearly knows the time of day.
Won 10/1 + 36 pts.Sun Alliance Chase ante post
1 pt win Notre Pere 33/1 Blue SquareI was impressed by his attritional victory at Leopardstown over Christmas where the further he went the better he looked. He’s just the type of strong stayer you need for the Sun Alliance where toughness usually succeeds over style and even though he’s a doubtful runner on fast ground, his trainer who had Harcon pipped in this in the same colours some years ago was making encouraging noises today about his likely participation.
1 pt each-way double Countess Trifaldi 2.30 Chepstow, Push the Port 3.35 Chepstow.
Countess Trifaldi ran well at Haydock on her first start for the Scus and the visor might be a help to keep her straighter. She jumps well and stays longer than the mother-in-law at Christmas and 3 miles in the muck here should be a sufficient test. It’s hard to see her not being involved in the finish.
Push the Port has been crying out for a trip and looks solid each-way against the Nicholls hotpot.
2nd 3/1, unpl 4/1 -2pts.
1 pt win Limited Edition 3.45 Sandown.
Put in short last night, he’s drifting nicely. Has won after a break before and has a race in him off this mark as he showed at Cheltenham.
Unpl 8/1 -1 pt.2.55 Plumpton
1 pt win Dances with Wolves 6/1 Betfair.
Big price for this course specialist.
unpl 7/1 -1 pt.Triumph Hurdle Ante Post
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Temlett 25/1 Hills, Bet 365.
Will be one of the classiest Flat horses in the Triumph field and his trainer has a good record in the race. Has been a slow learner over hurdles but was impressive at Naas on Sunday jumping well. The 25/1 won’t last too long for a race that is much less of a lottery than before the advent of the 4yo handicap at the Festival.1 pt win Coach Lane 2.00 Warwick best morning price.
Loves heavy ground, unlike some of the opposition here.
4th 5/2 fav -1 pt.
1 pt win High Chimes 2.30 Warwick 11/2 guaranteed bet 365
Looked a natural for longer trips staying on behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock.
P 5/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Mister Quasimodo 3.45 Kempton 2/1 or better
Loves a true test at this trip- doubts about the main rivals in the soft ground.
P 6/4 -1 pt.
1 pt win Regal Heights 2.10 Wetherby
Nearly got us the sweep at 14/1 last time, can outclass these in a weaker race. May well drift tomorrow, back him late.
Abandoned.Only for Irish-based punters-
2 pts win Newbay Prop Thyestes Chase 7/1 Ladbrokes, Non-Runner money back if bet in cash in any Irish shop.
3rd 5/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win Jazz Messenger AIG Champion Hurdle 12/1 NRNB Ladbrokes.
Non- runner, no bet.
Ladbrokes new ante-post concession is an absolute gift, one they’ll come to regret if I have anything to do with it! I’d like evens it doesn’t last the year but as long as it does we’d best take full advantage. If either of the above turn up on the day they’ll be half the price. Jazz Messenger will surely only run if it’s soft, which would rule out a lot of the fancied ones like Harchibald and Al Eile. In a soft ground race 12/1 would be a gift. If bookies offer 7/1 on the day of the Thyestes about a Tony Martin bottom weight I’ll streak naked through Kilkenny City.
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