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Pierce Hurdle
1 pt win , 1/2 pt place Shazand 14/1 guaranteed Bet365
unpl 10/1 -1.5 pts.
1/2 pt each-way Silver Jaro 20/1 Victor Chandler.
3rd 14/1 + 2 pts.
Trends can narrow the field down here sucessfully and these are lightly weighted unexposed types who do well in this race.
Leopardstown Chase
1 pt win Sea Diva best morning price (13/2 tonight)
stays all day, ran a cracker in the Paddy Power on ground that would have been too quick, will love this test off a light weight.
unpl 13/2 -1 pt.Hi carvills,
What do you reckon to Moskova, right down at the bottom? This looks a nice sort off no weight at all. Her close jumps bred relative loved soft ground – won 50k on bottomless – and she looks like following suit. Lots in favour and I do enjoy being with a mare when they are in a good mood.
Do mares win this race? Is this a bit too unexposed?
Best of luck. Max
Sorry Max, only saw your message now through a haze of champagne- I’ve had a serious touch on Barker- You could have backed Muskova on trends, I just didn’t fancy her.
…and well done with that – and Silver Jaro.
Excellent tipping. Have a glass or two for me.Well done carvillshill, an impressive and sustained level of excellence in 2007.
Best of luck with fatherhood and tipping in 2008.Thanks for the kind sentiments gentlemen!
1 pt win Knight Legend 2.45 Thurles
This seems a match to me between the selection and One Cool Cookie with Hi Cloy difficult to win with lately. If you watch the video of the Down Royal race in November Knight Legend is cantering behind OCC who is coming under the cosh when KL is brought down on the bend. They meet on the same terms and I was impressed by KLs run against Our Ben at Tramore when he looked to have Our Ben cooked when that one sadly fell fatally. That looks better form to me than anything OCC has acheived and if he can be backed at the current Betfair 5/2 or bigger, he’s a good bet. Heavy ground holds no fears for him.
3rd 7/4 -1 pt.1 pt win Oscar India 20/1 Ladbrokes, in cash, in a shop in Ireland (Non-runner no bet) Thyestes Chase 24th Jan.
Non-Runner, no bet.I can’t see this ex-hunter chaser starting at these odds on the day off bottom weight after a good run at Fairyhouse.
1 pt win Simon Peter Marsh Chase Haydock, best morning price (10/3 tonight)
Opera Mundi is only a six year old and had a hard race last time. Though he’s had time to recover, that may still have left a mark. Simon loves the mud and runs better on flat tracks, which makes his last run at Cheltenham all the more meritorious. Our Vic is confidently opposed as he’s best fresh and the biggest danger may be Madison de Berlais.
Race Abandoned1 pt win Material World 2.55 Ascot
Currently 7/2 on Betfair which is a fair price. Has arguably the best form in the race with her second in the Pertemps final at the Festival last year and being fresh is a plus. Much is being made of her failure in heavy ground at Haydock , but Haydock heavy is different to anywhere else and that can be excused. Refinement won’t like this ground.
4th 5/2 -1 pt.1 pt win Regal Heights 3.30 Ascot
Regular readers will know of our near miss with this one at Haydock over hurdles. He’s equally at home over fences and current offers of 7/1 are fair in this company- he drifted last time so it might be worth waiting until near the off, especially on Betfair
Won 5/1 +6 pts (putting it down at 6/1, I managed 7s but I did say to wait)1 pt win Mahogany Blaze 2.20 Ascot
There may be less between him and Marodima than the betting suggests. Wee Robbie isn’t completely out of it either, but surely needs a bit further than this now. Currently trades at about 9/4 which would be OK.
2nd 2/1 – 1pt.2 pt win 1 pt place Aitmatov AIG Champion Hurdle 10/1 Ladbrokes with a run (If in cash in an Irish shop)
The heavy ground likely next weekend must be putting the participation of a lot of the market leaders in doubt. This horse may not like it, but at least he copes with it as he showed at Fairyhouse. It looks a bit like Jazz Messenger won’t run (out to 18/1 on Betfair) and I doubt that Harchi will be risked on bad ground so this one may end up as Meade’s representative. Cane Ladbrokes for their generosity!
P 5/1 -3pts.1 pt win Bagan Skybet Chase Doncaster Sat 12/1 generally.
Ante post, so a bit risky but this looks a natural target and he’s jocked up at the entry stage so it looks like the intention is to run. I cobbled together some trends here and you need a strong young (7-10 y-o) stayer who is relatively unexposed ( max 10 chases) preferably with 11-2 or less.
The obvious one is Opera Mundi but he is yet to be confirmed a runner and is no bargain at 6/1. This horse won well at Newbury and the only doubt is his lack of soft ground form but at the price it’s worth the risk.
unp 7/1 -1pt.According to Charlie Mann, Bagan is on the back burner at the moment, waiting for better ground, Carvills, so it looks like it’s time to get out the prayer-mat.
1 pt win Farmer Grant 3.55 Gowran Park 9/2 Lads, Hills
2nd 5/1 -1 pt.Tony M doesn’t keep horses that can’t win a 0-109… last day was unfortunate, no mistake today.
1 pt win, 1/2 pt. place Juveigneur 3.00 Doncaster 22/1 Hills
Hasn’t impressed on unsuitably soft ground this season, but has been given a real chance by the handicapper as a result, as now competes off 2lbs lower than when second in the William Hill at the Festival in March. Won’t have the attention of the sexy unexposed types but will make them go all the same.
4th 14/1 +1.25 pts.2 pts win Sizing Europe Champion Hurdle 7/2 Boyles, or 10/3 elsewhere.
If you can beat 3/1 about him for March get on, the ratings boys will be drooling about him tomorrow in the papers and he’s already proven on the track.
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