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1 pt win Bring Me Sunshine 4.10 Taunton 12/1 Ladbrokes
Needs a small field, gets it today for the first time in a while.
4th 7/1 -1 pt.Some nice tiping there carvillshill. If you get a chance would you drop me a mail as have one or two questions on a few Irish horses for Cheltenham. Thanks. celtdublin@yahoo.co.uk
2 pts win, 1 pt place Neptune Collonges Irish Hennessy Gold Cup 14/1 Ladbrokes, NRNB if in cash in a shop in Ireland.
Non-Runner, money back.Probably unlikely to make the journey so soon after his Cheltenham run, but I don’t mind lending Laddies a few quid for a week just in case- if he turns up he’s no more than a 3/1 shot.
January staked 28 pts.
P/L +28.75
Profit on turnover 103%2.35 Sandown
1 pt win Tighten Your Belt 20/1 Betfair
Lay 1 pt Vodka Bleu 9/2 Betfair.
unpl 10/1, unpl 9/2 level.Tighten Your Belt may be 11 but he’s been given a real chance by the handicapper here in conditions he loves- 20/1 is too big.
Vodka Bleu has been making hay over fences but may not be as good over hurdles and won’t like the ground.1.25 Doncaster
1 pt win Leslingtaylor if 3/1 or better.(3.2/1 on Betfair tonight)
won 5/1+5 pts.This will be a speed test and Tidal Bay’s jumping faces its stiffest examination- I think there’s more than a one in four chance this ex-flat horse can expose him at the trip.
3.05 Punchestown
1 pt win Oscar India 11/2 Betfred, Sportingodds
1/2 pt win Sea Diva 6/1 generally
4th 9/2, 5th 6/1 -1.5 pts.Willie Mullins horse is a silly price for a horse beaten in a beginners chase last time (thanks Tom!) and stepping up massively in trip. These two have the form in the book and will stay
3.45 Punchestown
1 pt each-way Never Compromise if 11/4 or bigger (3/1 Betfair now)
Nailed on to be in the 3, and to me has the same chance as Heads OTG and wins more often
3rd 11/4 – .5 pt.Thanks Rocktony- take him on again at the Festival.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
1 pt each-way Knowhere 66/1 generally.Realistically has it on to beat the big 2 but overpriced at 16/1 for a place and they both have to get there in one piece. He’s confirmed a definite runner today.
Grand National
1 pt each-way Bewley’s Berry 16/1 generally.Was tanking along when crumpling at Becher’s last year and ran a cracker in the Becher Chase in November when jumping well and just losing out to Mr Pointment. Has more experience than the latter and must have a big chance. For Irish punters he’s 20/1 with Hacketts (well he was before I backed him just now anyway….)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup
1 pt win Snowy Morning 8/1 Bet Direct, Stan James, Coral.
This looks like cutting up to a moderate enough renewal and the 2 favs are opposable- Nickname on stamina grounds and The Listener after a tame enough effort last time. Mossbank must be doubtful on soft ground and Turko may also struggle on soft after having a breathing op. We’re not left with much else bar the veteran Beef or Salmon so Snowy Morning must have a big chance. The only reason he’s not a bigger bet is that I don’t know if he runs, but his Betfair price is encouraging. Well worth chancing before tomorrow’s declaration stage as he’s almost sure to shorten.
3rd 11/4 -1 pt.1 pt win The Listener Irish Hennessy GC Sunday 3/1 Ladbrokes, Betfred.
Looking at the race again today I think he’s overpriced on what is likely to be his favoured soft ground. I want him on my side as well as Snowy, who will hopefully run…
Won 2/1 +3 pts.Tote Gold Trophy, Newbury Sat.
1 pt win, 1/2 pt. place Roman Villa 14/1 Totesport.Ran a cracker in the Pierse on ground he didn’t like- Saturday’s sounder surface will suit this strong-travelling type, you know I love his trainer’s UK raiders.
P 10/1 -1.5 pts.1 pt win Mister Quasimodo 3.10 Kempton 9/1 guaranteed available.
Seems a bit of an overreaction to his stinker the last day after he made an early mistake. Has his perfect conditions here (2 1/2m , bit of cut) and is no 9/1 shot in my book.
won 8/1 +9 pts.3.20 Naas
1 pt each-way Pom Flyer if all 8 run, no bet otherwise.They say that every dog has its day, this may be Pom Flyer’s.
He’d lap this lot over hurdles and might be able to win without coming under the cosh. I can’t see him out of the 3 anyway.
3rd 4/1 -.2 pt.Sun Alliance Chase Ante Post
1 pt win Ornais 25/1 Paddy Power, Boyles.Won well today, thorough stayer, overpriced.
Grand National Ante Post
1 pt win Cloudy Lane 16/1 Betfred.I’ve expressed doubts about his stamina elsewhere but this is a good bet for trading purposes- he’ll shorten a lot after today.
2 pts win Psycho 3.15 Leopardstown 9/2 Hills
Anyone who saw his win over C and D last day won’t be worried by a 16lbs rise. Once Tony M lets them off the lead they usually keep winning.
Fell 9/2 -2 pts. (clear at the last, 50s on- Arrghhh!)
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