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1.5 pts win .5 pt place Miko de Beauchene 2.05 Newbury 10/1 Hills.
Has a great record fresh.
2nd 7/1 -.25 pt.
1.5 pts win Lord Brock 3.10 Newbury 9/2 guaranteed available.
Again has a great record after a break. Elvis Returns tends to peak in the Spring.
Unpl 4/1 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win Prince Balthasar 1.20 Musselburgh 12/1 available.
A bit more speculative, but this horse won a point by 5 lengths which at least means he can jump and has some ability, which off this mark could be enough. His trainer’s UK visitors are always worth considering- his Roman Villa must go close in the 2.25 and is worth backing if he touches 3/1.
Won 10/1 +12 pts (Roman Villa won 2/1 too!)November 2007
Staked 33.5 pts
Profit + 12.55 pts
Profit on turnover 37%July-November
Staked 140.2
Profit 83.75
Profit on turnover 59.7%2 pts win 1 pt place Drunken Disorderly, Drinmore Nov Ch 8/1 P Power.
Liked his attitude at Galway, extra distance sure to suit as is softening ground. Same can’t be said for French Accordion, who I’m guessing won’t even run. Kazal is looking to buck a serious trend in that all of the last 10 Drinmore winners had run and won over fences. Line Ball’s form is moderate, though he has the potential to improve. The main stumbling block is Sky’s the Limit but he went missing last year and is a bit of an enigma, after looking like a machine when he won the Coral Hurdle 2 years ago- at the price I want to see him prove he wants a battle in soft ground nowadays.
Fell 8/1 -3 pts
2 pts win Aitmatov Hatton’s Grace H 3/1 P Power.
When he met Sizing Europe at Punchestown it was hard to say who’d have won if the latter stood up. Put Sizing Europe in here and he’d be much shorter. Sweet Kiln is beginning to look a bit exposed as below top class, there must be a big doubt about Mac’s Joy at the trip, Rosaker is a dog, Ebazian was disappointing the last day and Newmill is a solid yardstick but vulnerable to an improver.
Won 2/1 +5.25 pts (15% R4)
Saturday 1 Dec Newcastle
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Silver Sedge 3.0 Newc 33/1 available.
Loves the track, price looks an overreaction to his poor run over hurdles, which he usually needs.
Unpl 28/1 -1.5 pts1 pt win Maljimar 3.15 Newbury 11/4 available
Has ideal conditions, ran well in an arguably better race at Cheltenham latest.
Fell 6/4 -1pt.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Dom D’Orgeval Hennessy 20/1 Tote
The 22/1 with Skybet was available to a fiver (I kid you not) until 9 am, when they cut it to 18/1.
This horse was decent over hurdles, will love the softening ground and could be well handicapped as he didn’t fire on quickish ground at the Festivals last season. He holds a verdict over L’Antartique over fences and that one is now in the mid 150s so in theory he’s off a decent mark.
Unpl 16/1 -1.5 pts
1 pt win Newbay Prop 2.35 Fairyhouse 4/1 available
needs a trip in the mud, has those conditions for the first time since the Midland’s National where he ran well- this is a poorer race and he won it last year. Love the trainer, especially his staying chasers.
P.U. 3/1 -1pt.1/2 pt each-way Lyceum and Narquois Royal Bond NH
This race looks ripe for a shock in the prevailing ground- at 40/1 and 25/1 these two are overpriced.
Unpl 20/1, 12/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win Wanango 12.35 Fairy
Goes well fresh.
2nd 9/1 -1 pt.Coral Wesh National- Ante Post.
1 pt win Geeveem 25/1 generally available.This lightly-raced Paul Nicholls novice needs a trip and heavy ground to show his best- exactly the conditions which normally prevail at Chepstow after Christmas. He’s not the world’s best jumper but will have more time to organise himself in this marathon. He’d be a 2 point bet if I knew he was a definite runner, so watch the Post for news. Miko de Beauchene needs time between his races, this may come a bit too soon. Last year’s winner Halcon Genelardais has too much weight, Gungadu is a stamina doubt. dangers include Dream Alliance, Mattock Ranger and Character Building- who may be a doubtful runner looking at Betfair.
5th 12/1 -1 pt.Have another 1 pt win Geeveem Welsh National 25/1 Paddy Power.
Reported a probable runner in the Post yesterday, Paul Nicholls gave him a "good each-way chance". Looking at his last win again on tape (on Racingpost.co.uk) all he does is gallop and stay- he is sure to have had extensive schooling since his last run which may help him avoid the occasional blunder he’s made up to now. Chepstow’s fences are on the easy side in any case.
5th 12/1 -1pt.Me and my huge band of followers DB……..
3.25 Wetherby
1 pt win Silver Knight 5/1 or bigger.
Attempts to win this race for the third year in a row off a 6lbs higher mark than last year. At first glance his last-time P may put off some, and it is a concern, but if one were cynical it could be seen as a perfect ploy to get his mark down before another assault on "his" race…..
His trainer has had plenty of time to get him right since then.
Anyway, it will help the price and at 5/1 which should be available, I’ll be backing him.
3rd 5/1 -1 pt.
2.35 Sandown
1 pt each way Monet’s Garden 3/1 guaranteed available.
Looks nailed-on to make the frame as he stays 2 1/2m and doesn’t mind the ground. the worry was that he hasn’t been the best traveller in the past but they’ve changed tactics bringing him down on the day so he doesn’t fret so much. Just a suspicion that Voy Por is better going left-handed.
3rd 7/2 -.3 pt.Musselburgh 12.50
2 pts win Four County Lad 5/2 Paddy Power
I don’t often give second chances to horses but this fella was too keen last time over 3m3f and failed to get home. The RPs 4/1 had me salivating last night but I was prepared to bet him at 2/1 Love Mr Elliott’s UK raids.
2nd 13/8 -2 pts.
Muss 2.20
1 pt win He’s a Hotshot 8/1 guaranteed available
another G Elliott raider, this one has won 2 points since his last rules start and looked like winning the third before running out at the last. he’s a bit quirky but is overpriced in this company.
unpl 6/1 -1 pt.Paddy Power Chase Leopardstown 27th Dec Ante Post
1 pt win No Full 40/1 Ladbrokes.
This horse ran a cracker in a novice hurdle at Navan on Saturday, finishing a close fourth behind dead-heaters Woodbine Willie and Aranleigh.
His chase form on flat tracks is not bad, in the context of this race. He looked to struggle to stay 3 miles last year which is a worry but he was only 5, and could get the trip better now. On the evidence of that hurdle run he may even have improved and 40/1 is too big. Of course he may not run, but I’ve been watching his price for the past week and someone has been nibbling- Paddy Power were 50 and now go 25/1.
3rd 16/1 -1pt.
Boylesports GC Cheltenham Sat
1.5 pts win .5 pt. place Faasel 18/1 Paddy Power.
This classy hurdler (btn a short head in the Triumph) was 4th in the Arkle last season and may have been unlucky not to finish closer after the melee at the start.
He bustled up Black Jack Ketchum over hurdles at Wetherby on his reappearance and I can’t see why he’s a double-figure price in what looks a poor race.
His temperament has been under suspicion but longer trips might suit well as he’ll be on the bridle against these, none of which would have his hurdles pace. There’s a doubt about him knuckling down up the hill, but at the price I’m willing to chance him.
4th 11/1 +.75 pt.2.10 Leicester
1 pt win Surfboard 4/1 William Hill
More a bet about not fancying the others in the race than massive confidence in the horse himself. Favourite Potts of Magic didn’t look like a chaser in his 2 attempts so far. Roznic won’t get this trip in a horsebox and Mokum ran terribly last time. Surfboard is young and progressive. The doubt is the trip, but at the price it’s a risk worth taking that he stays ok.
won 11/4 +4pts.2 pts win Jack the Giant 2.30 Chelt 3/1 Paddy Power
The favourite Ring the Boss can be taken on on very different ground and track than he’s been winning on.
Jack the Giant is well handicapped on his chase form, which includes an excellent run in the Arkle last season. He goes well fresh.
Won 10/3 +6 pts.
1 pt win Freney’s Well 5/1 Hills X Country Chase 1.55 Chelt.
I formed the opinion that this fella could have beaten Spot in the La Touche last Spring at Punchestown. If I’m anywhere near right he must go close here. I think Tony Martin’s horse is the danger and I may well have a saver on it.
Unpl 6/1 -1 pt. (Tony Martin’s Wonderkid won 5/1)
1 pt each-way Leading Contender 3.05 Chelt 4/1 guaranteed Betfred
Has good course form, unlike the topweight favourite and I’ll be surprised if he’s not placed over a trip that looks sure to suit.
Won 11/4 +5 pts.2 pts win Sublimity Boylesports Hurdle Chelt
I think he’ll win tomorrow despite his trainer’s public pronouncements.
The only question is when to back him- I’ve had a bit at Fred’s guaranteed 5/2 and will top up if anything better appears tomorrow.
If 3/1 becomes available this will be a 3 pt. bet.
4th 7/2 -3pts.12.55 Chelt 1 pt win Tramantano
I don’t fancy those at the head of the market for various reasons- I like his course form and make O’Toole the danger stepping up in class. Trades at 9/1 on Betfair at the moment.
Took 10/1 with Boylesports.
P 8/1 -1pt.1.30 Chelt 1 pt win My Turn Now
1 quote of 6/1, may get better. I think Gwanako’s handicap run is overrated and Good Bye Simon may prefer softer ground.
Unpl 4/1 -1pt.2 pts win Osana Champion Hurdle ante post, 10/1 Bluesquare.
Won easily today and must come right into the Champion picture. 10/1 is too big.1 pt win Foreman 1.40 Cork 7/2 (guaranteed) Betfred.
Classy last year with two great runs at Cheltenham and Aintree against Voy Por Ustedes, he has obviously had problems, but if he reproduces any of his last 3 chase runs he has the winning of this. He is better left-handed but may have enough in hand to overcome that here.
Gemini Lucy may struggle on the soft ground and will provide competition for the lead with Central House, Our Ben surely needs further and the rest don’t look good enough. Despite the ground I make Lucy the danger, especially if she’s left alone in front.
3rd 5/1 -1 pt.1 pt win Rose of York 2.00 Folkestone 13/2 guaranteed Bet 365
Betting purely on Jim Best’s record with other people’s horses first time out for the stable. In a bad race if he can coax any improvement from her she’ll win.
Race abandoned, frost.
lay 1 pt Osana 7.8/1 Betfair Champion Hudle
Leaves us with 12 pts-1 pt and less ante-post exposure, top darts!
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