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2 pts win Bob Hall 14/1 Coral Paddy Power Chase Cheltenham 17 November
First investment in this, the first feature race in the jumps season. Previous course form is vital in this race and Bob Hall has run two great races here- second in the Jewson at the last Festival when the outsider of JPs two and third at the last meeting when possibly just needing the run. 14/1 is too big for a horse described as a certain starter by Jonjo.
The favourite Granit Jack has never run over British fences and is plenty short enough. I fancy Bob Hall to turn the tables on Knowhere whose stable was on fire when he won last month. Don’t Push It is short for a horse who is inclined to make a mistake.
6th 11/1 -2pts.1 pt win Crozan 14/1 generally, Paddy Power Chase 17/11.
Tipped up by Pricewise this morning, I must admit I’d missed Crozan’s record fresh on first examination of this race. He’s a must for our portfolio even at the 14s now left. I make no apologies for borrowing, stealing or theiving from any source in the hunt for profit- I only steal the winners!
Unpl 12/1 -1pt.1 pt win Executive Paddy 2.10 Fontwell best morning price, 4/1 or better.
Don’t often bet in selling hurdles but the favourite Ndola will take out a decent percentage and in my book can’t win- he’s best fresh and this is his third quick run. Executive Paddy has won 3 out of four selling hurdles he’s contested and is below his last winning mark of 93. Track, trip and ground are perfect and he’s bound to settle better on his second run back from a break. The rest look poor including the Pipe horse- looks like an act of desperation dropping him into a seller.
Fell 6/1 -1pt.1 pt win 1/2 pt place Vodka Bleu 12/1 Paddy Power, in the Paddy Power Chase Sat.
Looks like at least two of the market leaders won’t get in, this fella is probably only 50:50 to make the cut but will be shorter if he does, with money back if he doesn’t. Make a great effort to win this last year when beaten only by the well handicapped Exotic Dancer, goes well fresh, Pipe family record speaks for itself.
Unpl 8/1 -1.5 pts.2 pts win 1 pt place Mountain 12/1 Victor /Bet 365, Greatwood Hurdle Sunday Cheltenham.
This classy ex-flat horse is unexposed over hurdles and is just the type who wins this race. Jonjo O’Neill confirmed him a runner this morning in the Post. I’ve had all the 14/1 but 12/1 is still too big.
Unpl 7/1 -3pts1.5 pts win .5 pt place Offshore Account Hennnessy Gold Cup 1st Dec Newbury 16/1 generally.
I love and hate Pricewise- you look like a muppet for following him, but he has vital information that we don’t have- that the horse is likely to run. He has 9 stone 10 in the long handicap but the weights will rise, with Denman a likely top weight, leaving him with a nice weight of 11st.
His second tip of Tony Martin’s horse is too brave for me- TM is just as likely to decide not to run because he’s tipped it!
2 pts win Top the Charts 12.45 Cheltenham tomorrow, best morning price if 7/2 or better.
No bet, never better than 5/2.
Second in the Ascot Stakes last year the step up in trip over hurdles looks sure to suit- trainer loves having winners at this meeting. Though rated higher in the UK he still looks well enough treated on his Flat form.
1.5 pts each-way Freney’s Well 7/1 Paddy Power X-Country Chase 2.30 Chelt.
Given a "sympathetic" ride by Miss Carberry last Spring in the La Touche at Punchestown when connections were no doubt delighted to see old "Spot" win at the age of 14. Father Time must catch up with him eventually though, and the young pretender is great value getting 12lbs. His jockey hasn’t ridden a winner but looks capable enough. Expect money for this in the morning.
N.R.1.5 pts each-way Alamiyan 12.55 Cheltenham 10/1 available
1 pt each-way Warsaw Pact same race 12/1 generally.
I think the fav is too short here- this is a very open race and I may well back a couple more, possibly Look Who’s Back, Holiday Cocktail.
Both unplaced -5 pts.
1 pt win Itsmyboy 1.25 Chelt
Market is overreacting to his well-publicised quirks, trades at 5/1 now which is too big. Might be worth saving your stake in-running at a short price in case he does shirk the issue.
3rd -1pt.
1 pt each-way both Falcon’s Fire and Lemon Silk 2.0 Chelt.
Another fav who’s too short.
unpl, 3rd level
.5 pts each-way Idole First Paddy Power Chase 16/1
Goes well fresh, loves the track- slight doubt that he may be better later in the season.
unpl 16/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Cornish Sett 3.40 Chelt 8/1 available
One of the few with conditions to suit, bit tricky but Ruby on board.
2nd 10/1 -1 pt.2pts win Sizing Europe 5/1 Coral/Ladbrokes Greatwood Hurdle.
Lay 1 pt win, 1 pt place Mountain 12/1 same race.
I’ve changed my mind about Mountain, deciding that he’s no more than fairly priced for a horse with problems and advise getting out of most of the bet.
Unpl 7/1 +2 pts.
Sizing Europe is chucked in on his form when he fell at Punchestown, he could have a stone in hand- the current 5/1 won’t last. A bit of rain is no problem.
Won 5/1 +10 pts1 pt win Keenan’s Future 2.10 Hexham 8/1 available
Looks like a thorough stayer and loves soft ground, less exposed than many in this field.
Unpl 8/1 -1 pt1 pt each-way My Way De Solzen Betfair Chase Sat Haydock 3/1 Paddy Power
I want to be against Kuato Star after his lacklustre display at Aintree and this horse looks the only danger. 3 miles looks certain to suit at a flat track like Haydock, even if the Gold Cup trip may be a doubt. He should be fit enough for this big prize and the first leg of the bonus. Bar a fall he must be in the first 3, which would mean a slight loss.
Unpl 3/1 -2 pts1 pt each-way Halcon Genelardais 1.35 Haydock best morning price
10/1 on Betfair tonight, that would do nicely.
Favourite Taranis is short based on being well handicapped over hurdles but prefers a break between his races and can be taken on. Halcon loves give in the ground, stays very well and can win fresh.
3rd 10/1 +1.5 pts2 pts win Royal County Star 2.30 Navan best morning price
(13/2 best tonight)
I backed this Tony Martin improver in the Kerry National where he would have been in the mix but for unseating 2 out. He must be followed with conditions suitable tomorrow- he could be this year’s Dun Doire.
Won 10/3 +13.3 pts (7/1 generally,R4 5p).1 pt each-way Exotic Dancer King George 6/1 Paddy Power.
After seeing the Betfair Chase I’m a convert- how there can be that much difference in price between him and Kuato I and other forumites don’t know.
3rd 9/2 +.2 pt.1 pt win Bewley’s Berry Becher Chase 7/1 Hills
Crumpled after Becher’s second time in the National after jumping really well, goes well fresh.
2nd 11/2 -1pt.
1.5 pts win Mighty Moose Sefton H Chase 15/2 Hills
Bold jumper, bang in form, love this trainer’s chasers.
6th 8/1 -1.5 pts1 pt win Gan Eagla 2.20 Ludlow 4/1 Betfair
Should get an easy lead and be hard to pass over perfect C+D. Money for Rajam has made his price too big.Thanks DB- I’m writing this from Straffan, down the road from you!
4th 4/1 -1pt.1 pt win Four County Lad 3.20 Sedgefield 3/1 available.
Gordon Elliott’s UK raiders show a level stake profit (OK that includes 33/1 Silver Birch) but for me he’s emulating the Tony Martin technique of getting his horses well handicapped, then going to war. This is a bad race and with luck in running he must go close.
unpl 11/4 -1 pt.1 pt win Snowy Morning Hennessy Gold Cup 13/2 Coral.
Galls a bit to be tipping this at 13/2 having fancied it for ages but his participation was in doubt until a few days ago and the stable exploded into form today at Thurles with a treble. The fact that AP rides is an added bonus. Handicapped to reverse form with Denman from the Sun Alliance, he is the sort of handily weighted second-season chaser that wins this.
Fell 9/2 fav -1 pt.
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