Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I’ve had a quick scan over the race and I like the chances of Waterline Twenty. His previous run at Sandown at a course I didn’t think he’d like would give him a good chance here. The handicapper hasn’t been too kind raising him 4lb for finishing 3rd. This would be much more his track – his winning form has come left-handed and he is finally back in form and in the correct grade. If there was any money for him I’d be seriously interested.
Gordon Brown is a bullsh*tter, not a conviction politician. He’s just saying what he thinks people want to hear, to get votes. Then he comes out with this "big tent" rubbish so he can take one step closer to his One Party State of Brownism.
Brown a Thatcherite?
He’s a thieving beaurocratic socialist who stands against freedom, enterprise and social mobility. The sooner he’s gone the better.If only all Tories were this honest about their beliefs.
I believe Mr Potts has hit the nail regarding why systems or methods or whatever you want to call them will ultimately fail. The key to race selection is not back fitting results i.e. RSB or similar, it is a simple task of watching as much racing as possible, form conclusions from that about the race or individual horses and take those forward into future assessments.
By searching for methods/systems IMO you are missing the most important part – the horses themselves.
I do hope this thread can be kept going for a week or two yet. It’s very entertaining.
AP
I don’t think there is any doubt this thread will continue for at least another week, there seems to be a lot of new blood willing to discuss something called VDW. I’m not sure if it’s new or not.
Artemis,
I hope we have got past the stage that weight doesn’t matter
I wouldn’t determine class as the horses handicap rating – that is reflection on the horses current level of ability.
I also specialise in sprints – maybe thats where it stems from then?
Class – isn’t something that I would figure into my calculations when assessing a horses chance in a handicap race. The horses at the top of the handicap are, according to the handicapper of highly ability than those towards the bottom – I wouldn’t consider them classier, just of higher ability.
I suppose you could determine Class as the overall strengths of a horse – intelligence etc… and this can sometimes have an effect on a result.
It is all about interpretations…… but trying to give a value for class would seem extremely difficult and the weight i’d attach to compared to others would be very very small.
Pru is quite correct, Class has little or no part to play in the results of handicap races, however this could depend on your interpretation of ‘Class’.
I’m quite surprised Pru has even bothered to post in this thread, given the obvious lack of logic that came up with Canditato Roy. It didn’t really matter what handicap race Canditato Roy appeared in in this country he would always come out as the horse with the most prize money vs starts or whatever irrevelant figure it was.
To play devils advocate somewhat I’d ask Pru what his starting point is when viewing a race. I would wager that it doesn’t involve any divisions of prize money vs starts
Please explain, else my next internet purchase might as well be something by Mystic Meg.
I’ve got to agree Pru,
You do appear to have done your dough on something sadly lacking in depth. I seriously doubt you’re going to find anything of use in the material.
The above post lacks any logic (not yours Samson!) and as such I fail to see how anyone can feel confident betting the selections.
The fact that the replies to this thread have been numerous, but another thread which contained some very decent discussion on selection process is left trailing in it’s wake is sad IMO
All four of my nippers (ages 19 – 4) have been complaining that TRF has become a "zone for c*cksuckers, kn*bends, and p**fs".
And we can’t ******* have that, can we??
It does appear that the filter has caused many users to make up new cuss words, such as bumprodder, pipelicker, starfish hunter etc….
I much prefer Grass – with his c*cksuckers, kn*bends, and p**fs!
I would have serious concerns over his present form Chipmonk, He has looked very badly out of form in his most recent starts and I would have reservations about supporting him until he showed some enthusiasm!!!
Rainbow,
If your fear of Spiders is attached to a child-hood memory, it may be possible to placate the irrational fear you have – I suggest you buy Derren Brown’s book Trick of the Mind, this has a great way of changing the connection with fear that is locked in your head with a much different view of spiders or your fear.
Either way the book is must.
Thanks for some interesting and thought provoking responses.
It really is a complex equation which can be partly explained by several theories, many of which are complementary.
I agree with those who begin their analysis of a race with a consideration of the track, how it is likely to ride on the day and what shape the race is likely to take given the running styles of the runners. In this context, abilities(ratings) in isolation do not seem so important as I thought they were. I should be looking at track, going, shape of race, and pace, that apertained when those ratings were achieved. In other words all ratings are relative whereas I have treated them on many occasions as being absolute.
it makes the job much harder, but the analysis should be much more sound.
Fully agree. The analysis will be on the whole much more satisfying if you have attempted to "visualise" the possible race outcomes, i.e. where certain horses are likely to be at key times in the race (most importantly who gets to the lollipop first at the end
)When trainers say things like (in reference to their horse) "He’s a 10lb better horse round this track", they aren’t joking! Which is why most handicaps can seem like lotteries to the punter who only bets in pattern races. The horses who regularly compete against each other in several sprint handicaps each year are roughly all about the same ability – it is the race conditions on the day which determines the result.
There was one sprint handicapper I used to have the occasional flutter on who if it was raining during the race itself seemed to run far and away above his ability – it was probably more likely though that the opposition hated the prevailing conditions and he relished it – either way, he nearly popped up at 50/1 in a claimer for me – just getting pipped near the line a few years back into 2nd.
This is just one case of many where a horse preference can reap rewards. Handicappers can run several races facing conditions which don’t suit, coming down the handicap as a result – they then pop up under their ideal conditions. It is our job as punters to find these gems and not berate the trainer when his horse is gambled on and romps home.
Some courses which are perhaps tricky configuations, suit front runners because they can occasionally slip the field (Sandown used to have a lot of this) but otherwise the nature of the ground must play a part
Ripon has a config which suits front runners off a relatively slow pace on the round course due to the straight being quite undulating making it very difficult for horses in behind to find a decent stride (horse can be seen changing legs every other stride on occassions).
I think you might be on the right track carvillshill.
Horses have an optimum everything – the obvious being distance and going, but their are several more subtle factors which can also have a huge effect on performance.
The pace angle is an interesting one, whether it has more effect than going depends entirely on the individual horse concerned or the extreme of going encountered on the day.
As Drone points out in his post – unravelling the likely pace shape of a race is one the key elements to horse selection and as Robert99 describes in his post – Course confirmation has an effect on either run style and/or pace.
It is essential IMO to have a solid grasp of each courses unique configs and how they can lend themsleves to a certain type of pace / horse running style. It is important to note these can sometimes change due to ground conditions.
On the subject of wind conditions – I’m not convinced by the tailwind theory of suiting front runners too much, IMO it would have to be quite a significant tailwind to have an impact of the run style. The headwind can appear to suit closers, but this may have as much to do with front-runners in general being short-runners and their stamina wilting in the face of the wind. The cross-wind is something which seems from the eye to have an effect on results and anyone being at Newmarket on a gusty day can testify. Stocky/well built horses that are running over a trip slightly short of the best – say a 7 furlong performer running over 6 furlongs chances can be improved IMO by the cross-wind.
Something a little extra i’ll throw into the mix would something I’ve noticed at Lingfield. Horses with proven form on turf over a furlong longer than the race they are in at Lingfield seem to do well. Could this be the fact that the course is tiring but essentially downhill early forcing horses to go quicker than they would usually and tiring in the straight, therefore suiting those closers and/or horses with proven form over slightly longer?
He’s a thieving beaurocratic socialist who stands against freedom, enterprise and social mobility. The sooner he’s gone the better.
)