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Nothing wrong with this whatsover, nice to see the bookies get a little thumping.
Anyone who bets in Bumper races takes the big chance that there will be a real live one who only needs to turn up to win against usually modest opposition or horses who are just out for the experience and little else.
Joined – I am the one with the scary beard at the moment – in some kind of facial hair growing contest! – of course there is money riding on it!
If I ever join a private service hang me, more so if I join one about a coded one that no one understands!
Samson,
Then why do people debate selections? When it appears now to be an interpretation of the original (even if it appears to be written in code to me) methods?
Also, if VDW was still writing coded messages furiously do you not think his methods would have changed dramatically?
Sorry if this seems like a poke in the fire.
I’m not sure there is secrecy as such – just nobody seems to know the rules to the system and people seem to come up with varying selections.
This really is like the secret of secret clubs – I’m sure I haven’t gestured the correct hand shake or head nod yet
Socialism – great in theory. Absolute sh*te in practice.
As a matter of interest, how successful do you feel capitalism has been "in practice"?
Hensman,
I’ve posted my quick idea of analysis over in the lays and plays section.
Hensman,
As I solely bet in sprint handicaps I believe the question of ability has already been defined by the official handicapper and as all horses are handicapped on this rating I see them all as equals.
Unlucky Chip,
Horse ran a decent enough race, and shame he couldn’t make the frame for you.
I also specialise in sprints – maybe thats where it stems from then?
Class – isn’t something that I would figure into my calculations when assessing a horses chance in a handicap race. The horses at the top of the handicap are, according to the handicapper of highly ability than those towards the bottom – I wouldn’t consider them classier, just of higher ability.
I suppose you could determine Class as the overall strengths of a horse – intelligence etc… and this can sometimes have an effect on a result.
It is all about interpretations…… but trying to give a value for class would seem extremely difficult and the weight i’d attach to compared to others would be very very small.
Hensman,
From the post above, I hope I made clear that I don’t really try to evaluate what I would determine as class.
I’ve had more of think about this – and I suppose to try and make clear some of my thoughts regarding selection I should go into detail about individual horses and if you wish we can determine that as "Class" but I prefer to give it heading of "Personality"
This would include – my thoughts on an individual horse i.e. How genuine is the horse? (something akin to the Timeform Squiggle).
Jockeys and Trainers know their horses as well as anyone and some of their post race comments can be useful. Pre-Race comments don’t tend to give away a lot and sometimes can even misguide – so although I’ll read them – I can easily ignore if my evaluation clashes.
Aside from class/ability issue I feel it important to stress that although I do not use filters, I have strong opinions about certain factors and If a horse has extremely strong claims but as Pru says is drawn out in the river Dee at Chester I can easily discount it.
It is about the weight of factors and this can vary from race to race. To go into any race analysis with defined filters is a big mistake IMO. Every horse in a race should be evaluated for probability of winning. Some horses take very little time, some could take upto an hour depending how many previous races I have to view or notes read.
