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I would like to nominate, Archangel by Robert Harris…. An excellent historical thriller. :cool:
Firstly I should say I only bet in flat sprint handicaps.<br>I tend to gather horses to follow throughout a season –  due to them running good races in difficult circumstances. This could be because of draw, going, how the race was run etc… etc…
I then study these horses likes/dislikes, and with sprinters these are plentiful ;) I know of one horse who runs pounds better when it’s raining during the race itself!!
I then wait for a suitable betting opportunity. It could be a back or lay depending on the conditions.
Handicap sprinters run regularly, win a couple of races a year more or less, and most importantly they can pop up at big prices.
Robnorth,
I take your point. I’m just answering the individual question. A losing bet is never a good bet. I concede over a period of time, as a result of a series of similar selections, I don’t worry too much about the losers as long as my overall result is profit.
I still would rather not have backed any of the losers individually.
Ian,
I don’t disagree that 5/4 about what in effect is an even money shot is a value bet. But as ‘Jim’ says he fancies his chances of being able to predit the outcome, and in these circumstances your talking about value. If he can see something by the way the coin is tossed etc… He may by on a value 4/5 shot.
People get to hung up on value, before thinking about value, people should start picking winners and then consider the value of the bet. I simply will not have this idea that a losing bet can be a good bet – you failed to pick the winner, therefore you would have been better leaving your hard-earned bread in your bread bin. :cool:
ACR1,
Does that mean putting my ‘tag’ back on will no longer offend you? :)
I agree, but it’s those losing punters who make the market for the small few who are winning punters. The only moral standpoint I take is, I was a losing punter who now wins, so its possible for anyone to make the transition.
Grimes,
I do make money from the game.
Aston,
I watch the races i’m interested many times over (when ATTHERACES was on) and take each horses run into consideration. So to say that you would pick up on something significant just because you’ve backed a certain horse is way off the mark.
CPGagie,
Agree with you, the question nearly answered itself.
ACR1,
I shall change my tag, just for you. ;)
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 10:21 am on May 20, 2004)<br>
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 10:24 am on May 20, 2004)
The simple answer is no.
You can place a bet and learn something from placing that bet, but equally you could have learned the same thing from not placing the bet and simply watching the race/event in question.
So, no a losing bet can NEVER be a good bet. :cool:
Have just read the whole of this thread, and the tears are rolling down my cheeks as I type. He was the bravest racehorse I’ve ever witnessed, to still be matching the best at his age, just proves his obvious courage.
R.I.P.
JAR,<br>I`m not sure I agree with statements such as "Good form write up in a newspaper" but each to there own.
Bin57again,
I`m no expert on doggie form, If I had any pointers it would be to try and work out how the race is likely to be run, whats likely to lead, if there are a few (say 3 or 4) front runners in a race, it’s likely they may get in each others way, leaving the race open for a closer. Vice Versa, it’s possilbe there is only 1 front runner and this could lead to bunching in behind leaving the front runner clear. After you have worked out the likely patern/pace and seen it in action it should aid future punting.
I only specialise in sprint handicaps (horses) on the turf flat. If you have any questions on that then I`m your man. Otherwise I can only give ideas/suggestions.
Well, I can only go from my experience, and if you were doubling up on that bet at Belle Vue you should have been having £16 on, e.g. 2 – 4 – 8- 16 (race 4) that would have cost you £30 had T6 not won. 3 more races without a T6 win, you would have put on £432, a couple more races, and you’d need to remortgage your house. I can only say stop, one day you’ll get hit, and you’ll never recover. Study form and statistics and you’ll not only win, you’ll enjoy winning.
Bin57,
Hmmm….. I’m pleased that you won, does’nt make any sense to me though.
I’d be interested if you could get today’s results from Millersfield posted, see if T2 came out good.
Not mad, just silly, if you were to back T2 at Millersfield. I`m not going to explain why, I`m sure you already know.
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 12:38 pm on Feb. 25, 2004)
Smiley’s don’t seem to be working. :(
I wasn’t picking faults with your roulette ideas at all. Just making the point if you know the horses, have a system, prepared to be flexable, you can "eliminate" the bookmakers mark up.
If your making money at roulette I`m more than happy for you ;) :biggrin:
I do by the way only back horses at big prices, if I can rule out a 6/4 shot (and I mean really rule out), then I’ve take a big slice of the bookmakers make up.
As with all things in life, if you put in the hard work, you will reap the rewards.
I`m not sure who’s signiture it is, but it’s very apt.
"You can only be unlucky if you have left something to chance."
Very good thread guys, some interesting points made. I just want to take up what you were saying MrE about backing short priced horses etc… and the only way to go is back bigger prices (which I fully agree with). Your Roulette posts were interesting as you said "nullifying" the tables edge, but you admit you can never rule it out. And you suggested bookmaker overounds are about 112% (agree there too), but you can "eliminate" the bookmakers cut, by ruling out horses that are a shorter price than they should be. It takes a huge amount of effort & time, but it can be done. There is no easy way of making money gambling, no system will continually win, but be prepared to use your instincts as well as a sound system and then your talking. No system should be ridged.
Cheers MrE,
Really I`m just looking for a pretty simple timed based speed figure for the first few horses home, the further down the field you go the less valuable/accurate the figure becomes. I would just like to supplement my current system for flat sprint handicaps with a bit of time based anaylsis too.
