February 18, 2004 at 09:16 #1399Sailing ShoesMember
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Does anyone using the Forum produce Speed ratings for horses? Or even know of any books or like, that could help me produce my own. I know from some distant memory it’s to do with working out the official going (Due to the time of the races on the course that day) and then using the time of each race to produce a speed figure for each horse. But how?
Anyone’s help would be greatly appreciated.February 18, 2004 at 10:48 #52163MrEParticipant
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Hi Shoes, I don’t do speed figures myself but I know of a few guys that do, or at least did….. the concensus of opinion amongst these guys is that it has become nearly impossible to formulate a safe method of analysis. The powers that be are moving stalls from one side of the course to the other, the running rails are being moved, the harrowing on the sand is often not uniform and even if the official going is classed as "slow", we still don’t know to what depth they’ve harrowed. All these things seem to be against the "clocker" but there are still people profiting from it so it must work, but for the life of me, I can’t see any way through all these variables. I am not a "clocker" myself so I can offer no help but I am told that its gonna get harder until they bring in the "sectional timing", then that’ll make things easier, but once that happens, every man and his dog will be at it……. now there was a long answer to a simple question, I shoulda just said NO, it woulda saved time…….<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
MrEFebruary 18, 2004 at 10:53 #52164Sailing ShoesMember
- Total Posts 368
Really I`m just looking for a pretty simple timed based speed figure for the first few horses home, the further down the field you go the less valuable/accurate the figure becomes. I would just like to supplement my current system for flat sprint handicaps with a bit of time based anaylsis too.February 18, 2004 at 15:25 #52165rudeboyMember
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I actually do calculate and use speed ratings in my selections. :o
My method uses my own data (obtained from the net and stored in a database) to determine the finishing time of all runners.. Using this data I determine the relative merit of one horse vs. another at various distances going etc based in time. As I said this is a raw rating as it makes no allowance for going conditions. For accurate speed ratings I supplement my data with those of a speed rating service and TOPSPEED in the racing post.
One word of advice ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦ my limited experience has taught me that horse racing is an art and not a science. Use speed ratings blindly and you will line the pockets of bookies/punters..:angry:
You do need to use speed ratings along with other factors such as draw and preference for ground conditions etc and advice from MR E .. IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve found his insights to be invaluable. :cool:
If you wish to understand the science of speed ratings I suggest you read ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œMordin on TimeÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚ÂMarch 5, 2004 at 19:16 #52166ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
I use speed ratings quite extensively for both flat and jumps and agree with rudeboy that they are only one factor amongst many that need to be considered.
I personally use Topspeed, but can also recommend the ratings on the ATR website produced by Lawrence Taylor. I did my own for a while but it is VERY time- consuming, although quite satisfying.
A good way to start your own ratings is to give each race a ‘form’ value depending on the official ratings ( or suitable alternative such as RPR – Racing Post Ratings) and from that work out what time you would expect a race to take to run. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The RP standard time relates to an official rating of 100 – the RPR equivalent is 110 – the Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â standard time is achievable by a mature horse carrying 9st on good ground and assuming the race is run at a decent pace. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â All you have to do is make the adjustments for class, weight and distance to see how much faster/slower than standard horses have run. You then need to make an adjustment to allow for the effect of the going before calculating the final ratings.
If you want to give it a try, email me and I’ll give you more detailed instructions.
(Edited by Artemis at 8:23 am on May 14, 2007)
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