Fast ground, fast pace, suits closers?

[Sailing Shoes]

Some courses which are perhaps tricky configuations, suit front runners because they can occasionally slip the field (Sandown used to have a lot of this) but otherwise the nature of the ground must play a part

Ripon has a config which suits front runners off a relatively slow pace on the round course due to the straight being quite undulating making it very difficult for horses in behind to find a decent stride (horse can be seen changing legs every other stride on occassions).

[Sailing Shoes]

Thanks for some interesting and thought provoking responses.

It really is a complex equation which can be partly explained by several theories, many of which are complementary.

I agree with those who begin their analysis of a race with a consideration of the track, how it is likely to ride on the day and what shape the race is likely to take given the running styles of the runners. In this context, abilities(ratings) in isolation do not seem so important as I thought they were. I should be looking at track, going, shape of race, and pace, that apertained when those ratings were achieved. In other words all ratings are relative whereas I have treated them on many occasions as being absolute.

it makes the job much harder, but the analysis should be much more sound.

Fully agree. The analysis will be on the whole much more satisfying if you have attempted to "visualise" the possible race outcomes, i.e. where certain horses are likely to be at key times in the race (most importantly who gets to the lollipop first at the end )

When trainers say things like (in reference to their horse) "He’s a 10lb better horse round this track", they aren’t joking! Which is why most handicaps can seem like lotteries to the punter who only bets in pattern races. The horses who regularly compete against each other in several sprint handicaps each year are roughly all about the same ability – it is the race conditions on the day which determines the result.

There was one sprint handicapper I used to have the occasional flutter on who if it was raining during the race itself seemed to run far and away above his ability – it was probably more likely though that the opposition hated the prevailing conditions and he relished it – either way, he nearly popped up at 50/1 in a claimer for me – just getting pipped near the line a few years back into 2nd.

This is just one case of many where a horse preference can reap rewards. Handicappers can run several races facing conditions which don’t suit, coming down the handicap as a result – they then pop up under their ideal conditions. It is our job as punters to find these gems and not berate the trainer when his horse is gambled on and romps home.

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