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-1.0 (£10) for Combative on Wednesday so now +£38 for the thread
3.45 Doncaster – Hornsby 1.5 pts (Betfair 4.8)
This horse has been off the track a year but we know that Godolphin can get one ready after a break.. his third place at Haydock last year behind Gallileo Gold looks very interesting in the context of this race.
Thanks for the wishes Nathan and Joni!
One I like for today is –
3.45 Combative 1pt (7.0) – Finished 5th behind Royal Ascot winner Primitivo last time out, this horse is totally unexposed and looks like it should improve for the step up to 1m6f – it’s quite possible that the 10f last time was an inadequate distance.
Thanks Venture!
Well it could have been a better day but Twilight son did me a favour.. I don’t even think he was at his best today he should go on to win more Group 1’s this year if well placed by his trainer.
I think threads are easier to follow when using actual currency instead of a units based system so I will convert 1pt to £10 from here on in.
Cunco LOST -2.0 pts (-£20)
Frankuus LOST -0.5 pts (-£5)
Best of Times LOST -1.0 pts (-£10)
Exosphere LOST -1.5 pts (-£15)
Twilight Son WON +9.6 pts (+£96)Day 1 Total +£46
Hi Guys,
I was just looking at the form for this race and I am leaning towards Twilight Son – the ground has come right for him and Henry Candy did say before his reappearance that he would need the run, whereas today he seems more bullish. If the horse is back to his best form of last year then he will surely be hard to beat?
@ Steve / Darren – would the fact that the stable is not firing really put you off that much? I haven’t made a bet on the race yet down to this fact – I think you are both superb judges on the flat and although I don’t post on here often I do browse a lot so I am slightly uneasy going against your selections.
Thanks.
ConorI went into Betfred this morning and saw they were going 3/1 Global Applause (max. bet £100) if anyone is interested in doing him – although this may well have expired now
I really like the Godolphin horse here Silver Line – he currently trades around 5.0 on Betfair (4/1). I backed this horse at Nottingham when it won it’s maiden a couple of weeks ago and although I don’t know how strong the form was it was a seriously impressive performance, despite meeting trouble in running he showed a killer turn of foot to put the race to bed in a matter of strides. I thought that performance was visually very impressive and I take him to continue a pretty good week for Godolphin.
Silver Line 4/1
WOW!! That was impressive! What does Wesley Ward do to his fillies? Did she she look a lot bigger than the other horses or was that just me?
The American horse Lady Aurelia is by Scat Daddy the same Sire of Caravaggio who didn’t seem to be inconvenienced by the ground yesterday…
I think it is guesswork how most, if not all of these are going to handle conditions.
I have taken the 9/4 about the favourite. Would rather not back Dettori but a point and fire ride shouldn’t stretch him too much.
At the current prices of the others I think Camargue is the most appealing. Decent pedigree, progressive and some course form.
I really love this Camargue of Johnsons, I’ve backed it on it’s last two runs – 2nd on the AW when it should have won and then won cosily as Ascot on good ground. I am slightly worried about him staying on soft ground however.. on his AW run he was caught on the line, he hung all over the track in the last furlong – now I don’t know whether that was greenness when he hit the front or whether he doesn’t stay beyond 5f as that was 6f and he was fine over 5f last time at Ascot.
I was suprised to see him priced up at 20/1 considering the strength of Johnsons 2yo team – does this signify a lack of confidence in the horse do you think? Is the price down to the soft ground? He really looks like a pure 5f horse to me (at least at this stage in his career) so maybe he might be vulnerable to something with a bit more stamina.
I haven’t seen the American horse.. is there any way we can guess which of these 2yos will go on the ground? Can their breeding help us?
Limato easily best horse in the race, just didnt stay, but one thing is for sure…that is no group 1 race!! Maximum group 3 level
Group 3?.. I don’t know how you could say that, if that’s the case have all the Group 1s that Euro Charlene has been placed in over the last few years all been Groups 3’s as well? It might have lacked a superstar but it was a high level race.
In saying that I wasn’t overly confident as I said before the race I only had a small bet.. I did think he would beat Toormore but I thought there were about 5 or 6 that could win. Also Euro Charline ran a great race, she is a very good filly and the form should be solid.
The whole Toormore/Dutch Connection/Belardo scenario was turned on it’s head and it is hardly as if we can seriously base that on the bad ride theory from last time. Belardo was far enough back again today to negate that theory.
I don’t think it was just down to the ride at Sandown I think the fact that they were so strung out didn’t help.. Today you could see that the leaders were coming back to the hold up horses and they bunched up about 2f out before Belardo made his move through the field. Today he didn’t have to make up too much ground – when he made his move at Sandown he was much further behind and just had too much to make up. I think Atzeni is a really good jockey.
Conor
That was absolutely awesome like I said on here after Sandown Doyle gave it an atrocious ride last time
I don’t know how much stock you guys put into clock times and sectional timing, I don’t know much about it myself but it’s definitely interesting – Simon Rowlands piece for Timeform suggests that the Dante may not have been as poor a race as people think.
Regards,
ConorBelardo looks a classic honey trap today after a deemed terrible ride last time. He’s just a quirky type for me who doesn’t win often enough and I think he is bad value today in a better race and with the ground dried out to good now, I can’t have him. I have laid him to a place at 7/4. No doubt one of these he’ll pop up and everyone will say, “I knew he had it in him” but they may well be making the statement from a cardboard box on skid row by then
I think your right Steve 7/1 might not be great value but should he be twice the price of Toormore? I just think that Belardo has a big run in him and I’m hoping it’s today.. However the race is really really competitive I could have backed 5 or 6 which shows it’s a race for very small stakes.
Good luck all,
Conor
