Norfolk Stakes Ascot Early Contender

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  • #1243487
    stevecautionstevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8280

    Royal Ascot is a fair way off but I like Caravaggio as a type for The Norfolk Stakes.

    Sent off 1/3 at Dundalk it was an open secret that the horse was well thought of but I felt he put in quite a taking performance. He fairly picked up in the closing stages and looked set to win by a fair way but the second made some headway to reduce the margin.

    Caravaggio still looked a bit green and he changed his legs late on in the race. Most of Aidan’s tend to need their first race and he seems sure to improve.

    Joseph O’Brien made reference to him being a Royal Ascot possible whom his father had said is very fast. He’s USA bred being by Scat Daddy and although bookmakers priced him up for the Coventry and, somewhat ambitiously, next year’s 2000 Guineas, it was the Norfolk I imagined he would be suited to.

    Caravaggio looks a nice colt and I would anticipate another run in Ireland before heading to Royal Ascot. Obviously other horses will be appearing but this one might have the advantage of being forward and ready to tackle 5f at the Royal meeting. Stable companion Waterloo Bridge won the race last year and I think 10/1 for The Norfolk is worth a couple of quid.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1245093
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Richard Hannon’s Legendary Lunch is narrow favourite for the Norfolk at 8/1 for the time being. He won his only start thus far, beating Copper Knight, who won well next time at Chester.

    Legendary Lunch will surely improve from his debut but it should be borne in mind that Copper Knight threw the race away behind the Hannon horse when hanging right across the track. Copper Knight did the same at Chester but because he was never far from the rail to begin with, the effect on his run was minimal on the day.

    Carravagio had a nice boost to his form today at Leopardstown when the Dundalk runner up Lundy scooted home easily in the 6f maiden that might turn out to be a nice race.

    This is Carravagio’s race video:-

    http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/930971

    I like the way he travels well in behind and settles the race quickly. Today’s winner stays on well for second but I expect Carravagio to make big improvement and I think he’ll go well on turf. This video also goes into the file marked “What the hell was the cameraman thinking” as he seems to completely misjudge where the winning line was.

    I was happy to see Lundy do the business easily today and he may well be useful himself:-

    http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/934232

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1248005
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Caravaggio is 4/1 for The Norfolk after readily winning the Marble Hill at the Curragh, on ground the trainer felt didn’t suit his horse at all.

    I would reckon Caravaggio might line up at 2/1 or less if he is pointed at The Norfolk. He is also in the Coventry and Aidan feels he will get the 6f.

    Caravaggio earned a rating of 92 from the Racing Post for his first win, while Timeform kept raising his rating as the form was subsequently franked. He was 98P I believe, going into yesterday’s race according to Twitter.

    I would reckon he’s probably up with Mehmas as the highest rated 2yo’s thus far.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1248249
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20978

    10/1 is a great price Steve,
    I suppose it depends on what else O’Brien has for which race Caravaggio turns up in but I’d stick him in this one if he were mine. He would get 6 furlongs no problem but his time at the Curragh in those conditions and running slightly green would suggest he has plenty of speed to be winning this.
    I notice Mehmas is down to run at Sandown on Thursday back down in distance from last time out at Newbury which is a bit of a surprise considering he was pulling away from the others, I know the Hannon yard has a very good record in the race winning ten of the last twenty two. It’s a funny 5 furlongs at Sandown which can favour the low drawn runners and Mehmas is high enough and short enough in the market with a fair few lively contenders for me just to watch and see how he gets on.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1248279
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I think Mehmas will win at Sandown Nathan.

    The main danger will be the Johnston filly but I just have a feeling the Hannon horse will prove a bit better class than her.

    The Racing Post raised Caravaggio from 92 to 105 after his latest win and considering the trainer feels that the ground didn’t suit, then that sets a good standard at this stage of the season.

    My biggest concern is that they might send him to the Coventry but they said early doors that they thought speed was what he was about, so I’m hopeful.

    I see unraced Taj Mahal entered up at the weekend but I am not sure he’s a definite starter.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1248285
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20978

    If they were offering odds which race Caravaggio will run in I’d take odds on it will be in this.
    O’Brien tends to send horses to the Coventry who he has aspirations of getting further than the 6f, especially at this stage of a two year olds season. Off the top of my head I can think of in recent years running Henrythenavigator, Power, War Command, War Envoy, Air Force Blue and Sir John Hawkins all of which with intentions of getting further. I’m not sure what the long term plans are for Caravaggio but he looks a ball of speed to me.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1250702
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Silver line was devastatingly fast at Nottingham and I reckon he’s a strong contender in this.

    #1251721
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20978

    Global Applause is a worthy fav but I think it might be worth taking him on. I think he’s a 5f specialist but in this going the race will feel further.
    Legendary Lunch won over 6f at Epsom and the going had a fair bit of cut in it. He had the advantage of the inside but showed a good burst of speed to open up a healthy lead before fading near the line. He was still green as a granny smith at Windsor when he lost the time before and has plenty of scope for improvement.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1251766
    Chivers1987Chivers1987
    Participant
    • Total Posts 888

    Global Applause’s sire is Mayson who won a group 1 on heavy ground not that long ago. I’m not a great judge on what ground I think a horse would prefer based on how they run, but I thought the fast ground at Sandown hindered him somewhat and he still won cosily enough, even if racing against the favourable inside rail.

    I might be totally wrong though.

    #1251787
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    I really like the Godolphin horse here Silver Line – he currently trades around 5.0 on Betfair (4/1). I backed this horse at Nottingham when it won it’s maiden a couple of weeks ago and although I don’t know how strong the form was it was a seriously impressive performance, despite meeting trouble in running he showed a killer turn of foot to put the race to bed in a matter of strides. I thought that performance was visually very impressive and I take him to continue a pretty good week for Godolphin.

    Silver Line 4/1

    #1251792
    PuttingTheWorkInPuttingTheWorkIn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 119

    Afternoon guys

    Hope your all having a profitable week so far, been some impressive displays so far, Lady Aurelia a serious filly for Wesley Ward, also great to see Adam Kirby get recognition as not just an all weather jockey this week, great to hear his wife had a baby and all well. Persuasive impressed me as did Profitable who has got better and better with every run.

    The Norfolk Stakes i tend to not get too involved, despite my interest being around juveniles. Global Applause has the pedigree being sired by mud lark Mayson, the dam Crown won both of her runs on good to firm on turf and the dam-sire Royal Applause won the Haydock Sprint Cup on good to soft. it was the right analyses that someone said the ground will be too soft for him this afternoon, but if he emulates his sires ability on the surface he should be on the premises.

    Again i have to agree with the above poster on Silver Line, this horse set a quick time of sub sixty second on debut and even though this ground very soft it is still going to take a 60-61 second standard to land the race. Over the past three renewals all have run sub minute, on soft ground 60-61 average. So if we can find something in the field that has run up to that 60+ standard on this ground then we have the winner, oh if only that easy. I do feel it is going to benefit middle to high in this, so from stall 6 to 10 looks reasonable to look, Global has bagged stall 4 and my worry is he might not get the pace he wants, but someone mentioned Legendary Lunch who has grabbed barrier 10, and being a winner over 6f on ground that was similar to today, he grounded out the win that day and dropping back to 5f and if he scoots for home early he just might catch these out.

    Peace Envoy was beaten on his sole run on soft ground behind King Electric who franked that form again at Navan, King Electric performed better on the quicker ground, so we could see Peace Envoy run a solid race, but both of the sires wins have come on good – good to firm ground so this ground has to be a concern. Red Lodge has been drifting all morning and will tackle this ground for the first time, but with Lady Aurelia already showing blistering pace and Red Lodge smashing a sub 56 second 5f but on good to firm, you would like to think she could scare the life’s out of these if she gets on the front end, with this ground she still has a few seconds in hand over her rivals which the end result could reflect in 2-3 lengths.

    I will be with Global Applause with the inform Frankie on board, the pace will be quick with the likes of Silver Line and Red Lodge in the race, but i am hoping Frankie uses his loaf and waits on Global, pick them up late on.

    GLOBAL APPLAUSE :2pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)

    Good Luck

    Darren P Goodbody

    #1251793
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    I went into Betfred this morning and saw they were going 3/1 Global Applause (max. bet £100) if anyone is interested in doing him – although this may well have expired now

    #1251802
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6044

    On form the one that catches my eye is SILVERLINE, but it’s so hard to know
    what to make of RED LODGE. She won as she liked at Belmont Park but it was
    over 4 1/2f and on firm. I seem to remember having the same dilemma with
    Lady Aurelia yesterday, and we know how that went. She may not be another
    Lady Aurelia, and the market seems against her, she’s drifted out to 8/1,
    but even if she wants it firmer, how far ahead has Wesley Ward got his 2
    year olds compared to ours. She may crash and burn, but I can’t let 8/1
    go by on a horse that could be anything.

    #1251806
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Red Lodge looks incredibly muscular for a filly.

    It’s like Serena williams lining up against some scrawny male tennis players :yahoo:

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