Forum Replies Created
On the basis that winning the Triple Crown is something that I’d be going for, you’d have to go with the last two horses to do it – Oh So Sharp and Nijinsky, which would also be feasible given relative ages of the horses.
From a geek’s point of view (i.e. what would improve my experience)
1. Proper distances reported
2. Proper, scientific reports of going leading up to, and on the day of, the fixture
3. Horse weights being published before and after races
4. Requiring trainers to account for runs "below par"
5. Stewards acting more like French stewards with regard to decisions of interference
6. A regime to stop trainers and owners taking the piss out of the handicap system
7. A new system for vet certificates when a horse is withdrawn to stop 8 runner races suddenly becoming 7 runner. Perhaps stopping horses withdrawn running within the next 7 days?
The majority of what’s been said above may be valid, but seems to be designed to improve interest amongst existing race goers, in particular the real enthusiasts. The only way British racing’s going to improve is by appealing to non race goers. To do this they need to look at the overall product and their competitors for leisure time, particularly in the sports field. IMO, to do this they need to:
1. Radically improve racing’s image. Get rid of the perception of the sport being bent. I think they’re doing a decent job of this to an extent, but they really need to stamp on this one further.
2. Improve facilities and value for money – the majority of tracks have rotten facilities and offer shocking value for money – this needs to be reversed by some major investment.
3. Really market the sport – promote the big name, charismatic jockeys and trainers (yes, more Frankie unfortunately). Pick a target audience (families being the obvious one, although the stag weekend/large groups of lads market is, sadly, another) and play to them.
4. Promote championship type competitions – the stayers one mentioned above sounded a good idea, whilst the Shergar Cup thing at Ascot is still a missed opportunity IMO. Regional competitions, or tournament style events (qualifiers run at regional courses leading to a final at a major track) have potential as well
5. Get rid of the clowns presenting on Channel 4.
6. Reduce the number of fixtures and tracks to make racing a bit more scarce
7. Offer more incentives for foreign horses to run in Britain.
8. Target big events on weekends where they don’t clash with other sporting fixtures.
Much of the above will probably annoy a lot of the enthusiasts of course…
2:30 Henrythenavigator is way too short given form, pedigree and dropping back in trip. LAID 3 pts at 3.6
3:05 Sprints aren’t really my thing, and there hasn’t been an outstanding sprinter for a number of years, so this would normally be a stick a pin race. However, I was enormously impressed by Enticing last time out, and the price looks tasty, so I took some ante post BACK 2pts at 20.0
3:45 Cockney Rebel is clearly the form pick, but Dutch Art’s price is way too high – I don’t think any of the rest are a threat, so you’re taking 4.2 or so that Dutch Art lost the Guineas due to the draw. No brainer for me BACK 3pts at 4.2
4.20 Weak renewal for me – it all hinges on George Washington, with the rest of the field (possibly Red Evie excepted) not being Group 1 standard. On the basis he could come back not on his game, I’m going to lay George Washington for a place (LAY 5pts at 1.5) and have a nibble of Red Evie (BACK 1pt at 7.6)
Look – the only way you’ll make money on a 6/4 shot is if it wins more than 40% of the time. The only way you’ll make money on an 8/1 shot is if it wins more than 11.11% of the time. What you should be using is the Kelly criterion, considering each of the bets as individual bets.
And davidbrady is right above too – the only way level stakes will give you a better return than dutching is if the longer priced horse wins more often than the shorter priced one.
I think at the current odds, Dutch Art is a much better value bet than Cockney Rebel. I seem to be alone in this view, mind…
This’ll be the Aidan O’Brien who admitted that Oratorio had a setback in his prep for the Champion Stakes then?
Enticing each way for the King’s Stand
Also wondering if Kayf Tara should be on the list
Flash – the question isn’t which was Godolphin’s best turf horse – therefore DM’s World Cup win, where he broke the world record for the distance, has to be a major factor.
Dubai Millenium – most impressive horse I’ve ever seen in live. Honourable mentions to Sakhee and Lammtarra
Given the crabbing the 2006 Derby form, and Sir Percy in particular, has been given, I’m surprised no one has put forward Alexandrova as a filly that could have won the Derby
I think that’s a very long winded way of getting there, but yes, you’ve proven the probability of A finishing second is 0.2. YOu could do similar, much more involved calculations to show the probability of A finishing 3rd is also 0.2, which would involve listing all the combinations of the first two…
I’m itching for the debate to get into Bayesian probability and normal functions…
Well there’s two different situations. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â One simple, one slightly more complex.
Simple one is the simple probability of A finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th, without prior knowledge of where other horses have finished. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â This is 1/5, or 0.2, for each (analagous to the probability of a red ball being drawn on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th draw, if you replace the ball following each draw)
Slightly more complex one is the probability of A finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th, given prior knowledge (e.g. the probability it finishes second, given we know it doesn’t finish first, the probability it finishes third, given we know it doesn’t finish in the first two, etc…)
The respective probabilities of this are 1/4, 1/3, 1/2 and 1. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â This is analagous to not replacing balls – i.e. the probability of the second ball drawn being red, if we know the first one wasn’t, and the first one wasn’t put pack in the bag is 1/4. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â And obviously, if we’ve drawn 4 balls out, none of which are red, and we haven’t put any balls back in, then the last ball must be red.
The probability of A being first or second is simply 1/5 + 1/5.
A further, similar, exercise to this is how to price up "without favourite" races. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â e.g what would the win odds be if you took one of the 5 co-favourites out of the race? Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â What about if the favourite was 2/1 and one of the other four was 14/1 to maintain the 100% book?
(Edited by psychosis at 2:27 pm on June 8, 2007)
The second example is the same as the first, as in the second example, you’re making the (unstated) assumption that you’re not replacing the first ball drawn out.
(Edited by psychosis at 1:04 pm on June 8, 2007)