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It’s a bit early to be talking about the Champion Hurdle but looking at the leading horses in the betting at the moment Blythe Knight has to be the value for me @ 20/1.
Sublimity 4/1 – fragile horse not certain to line up.<br>Katchit 7/1 – Too young<br>Black Jack 12/1 – uncertain to line up is he good enough?<br>Detroit City 16/1 – probably wont line up.<br>Blythe Knight 20/1 – Winner?<br>Brave Inca 20/1 – Too old<br>Gaspara 20/1 – Too young, gender may count against.<br>Clopf 25/1 – May possibly go close.<br>Wichita 25/1 – Cant be certain to line up <br>Ikitiaf 25/1 – has a chance<br>Macs Joy 25/1 – Had better chance in previous years to old now?<br>Afsoun 25/1 – likely to go chasing<br>Straw Bear 25/1 – not good enough<br>Ebayzian 25/1 – Won a poor renewal of the Supreme imo not good enough.<br>Massinis 25/1 – If he runs he has a chance<br>Punjabi 25/1 – Too young<br>Aran Concerto 33/1 – not good enough<br>Hardy Eustace 33/1 – too old
There’s already a 100% book just on that lot. None jump out, and most would need to be double the price to get any interest from me (Sublimity at 4s being the biggest joke – 4s to have more than 2 races in him next season more like).
Blythe Knight and Ikitiaf look best value to me though
Yeh a bit early to be talking about the sideshow, when we have another 5 months of real racing.<br>FWIW, Sublimity is a shoe in.
For me, Blythe Knight isn’t good enough to win a CH on the evidence so far. But then again neither was Sublimity really coming into this year’s renewal.
I don’t know if I’ll be doing any AP betting on the CH for next year, as for me it depends on the ground. If the ground suits Sublimity, say goodnight, if not then it’s wide open.
Bloody ell, is Clopf 25/1!!! I like this horse a lot.. Right age to progress, stays, battles and his trainer and jockey think the world of him.
I think Blythe Knight is better suited by a flatter jumps track hence why he went to Aintree instead of Cheltenham. He cudnt be in better form on the flat but i still think he needs to find at least 20lb to be competitive and think Detroit City looks a bit of value and 2 bad runs doesnt make him a bad horse just a tired 1 imo.
Quote: from Aragorn on 12:37 am on June 7, 2007[br]Bloody ell, is Clopf 25/1!!! I like this horse a lot.. Right age to progress, stays, battles and his trainer and jockey think the world of him.<br>
Do people think Sublimity is a fluke ?
Let your eyes do the talking !
Clopf has never run against Sublimity so you don’t know.. It was the softest Cheltenham in a few years which helped sublimity as well.. He’s a worthy favourite but Clopf is definitely a tradeable price and I would expect him to shorten a lot through the season.
What were the worse 4/1 shots than Sublimity? Last year’s champion was a weak race in which he caught the old guard on the way down. Punchestown to a degree backed up that.
Like I said above, I think Sublimity is more than 4/1 to get more than two races in next season, and I’d also say it’s more than 4/1 that he’ll get his ground. Worst ante post bet I’ve seen in a while (6.6 is available on Betfair for folk who think 4/1 is a good price)
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Can’t really have it that last season’s was a weak Champion  Hurdle, unless one assumes the next 4 home all ran some way below their recent bests, and for no apparent reason.<br>Even the well beaten 6th, Kawanigo, repeated his rating at Aintree.<br>If it was so weak, where were the better horses?
Certainly looks like there will be a chnging of the guard in the hurdle ranks in 2007/08. Another one to consider is Dermot Weld’s Bobs Pride. Looked rejuvenated this spring. Came home (virtually) on the bridle in a decent handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival against strong age and racing weight stats. Given his flat class doesnt take a great leap of imagination to see him as a contender.
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