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Ian, I completely agree with your last post.
I think every race is different, and you can’t only look at the time they make, unless it’s a very, very fast one, or a snails pace, but HOW does a horse win.
Zarkava yesterday was awesome. It was a super performance, with Soumillon just helping her to put an acceleration that was, yes, just enough to win. I think that she could have won more easily should the Belgian had wanted.
And another point I’d like to mention. Having said, and everyone on this forum agrees, that Zarkava is brilliant, I don’t think that she’s as good as Dancing Brave. I saw his defeat in the Derby against Shahrastani (the biggest unjustice I’ve seen in horse racing in my life; sorry, I wasn’t present at Nijinsky’s Arc), and his victory in the 1986 Arc, and I can assure you that his turn of foot was more than electrifying. IMO, better than Zarkava’s. I think he would have caught her even with yesterday’s ground.
That said, I’ll repeat myself: Zarkava is a very, very high class individual. And I don’t agree with her rating, it’s too low. IMO, it has to be close to the mid-130’s.Peruvian, IMO Zarkava’s rating is as good as Sakhee’s, if not better, and this Arc was a very strong field, as was the 2001 edition.
Now, this said, I think Hurricane Run defeated a very, very classy field in 2005, probably the best since Dancing Brave’s 1986 one, and he put in a scintillating performance under very difficult conditions, it was pelting in Longchamp, with a nerve wrecking ride by Kieren Fallon.
All these, of course, in my opinion.We’ve all been extremely privileged to watch Zarkava in our lifes.
A filly, or horse by that matter, like her comes out once every…
What an AWESOME performance against the very best, except New Approach, but I don’t think that Bolger’s colt would have defeated her.
Today she battled like a giant, which is exactly what she is. Not from a physical point of view, but what a phenomenal, extraordinary, brilliant animal. Hail Zarkava!
Youmzain second again, flying in the final furlong, but today was beaten by a super star, a top, top class thoroughbred.
Finally, just a small comment on Soldier of Fortune. IMO, with a prep race, and someone more experienced on the saddle, he would have fought for victory. It seems to me that the final 100/150 metres turned out to be a bit hard on him, and I think he accused the four months being off the competition. I’ll definitely back him to win next time out.Zarkava and SOF for me.
Even though I must acknowledge that I’m trembling with the filly starting from stall 1, and the ground being soft…Best of lucks to everyone.
Just read on the RP that AO’B has stated that Duke of Marmalade and Soldier of Fortune are both on course for the Arc… and that Ralph Beckett is considering supplementing Look Here for that same race.
Ground on Sunday is expected G to S.
If all of them show up, we have a crackin’ showpiece ahead!I completely agree, reet hard, on both of your last two posts, re form and HTN/RP.
Onthesteal pointed out correctly that there was a bit of contradiction in my previous message, and what I was trying to say is exactly that, that RP has progressed each time out, while Henry WAS in peak form back in summer, and he’s lost a bit of that now.
For the last possible race in which they can compete against each other, I think that RP will run away with it again… should it be 1m and in turf. My feeling is that Henry, though being a high class individual, will not get back to the Ascot/Goodwood form, while I think RP has got a little bit extra in the tank still. So, Fist of Fury 2k8, I think you’ll see "your" horse giving you some more happy times.I agree with Aragorn.
For me, the most important aspect of a horse is his performance, and I just had to review the results of the three of them.
Comparing HW to both the Rock and HC is a joke, IMHO.I’m not saying that HW is a bad horse, simply that he was overrated. And honestly, I think that in a 1m race he would have suffered seriously to defeat Raven’s Pass if the latter showed a performance like last Saturday’s.
Tourbillon, by Wednesday the field should be pretty much definite.
I think that Zarkava is the one to beat. She’s absolutely outstanding.
Now that New Approach is definitely not running, my money is going to go for the exacta Zarkava-Getaway.
Good luck for Europe’s Premier race for everyone!
Some important aspects, IMO, after this race.
Tamayuz is better than shown last Saturday. I don’t think he ran in his real value, and yes, he look very sweaty before the race. I wouldn’t bury him prematurely, though his value is, clearly, below the first two.
RP and HTN seem to have opposite trayectories this year. The first one is running better and better every time out, while the second one is a little bit away from his peak form from summer.
AO’B stated afetr the St. James’s that HTN is the best miler he ever trained, and everyone was already thinking about the son of Kingmambo, with good reason probably, tackling Rock of Gibraltar’s record of Group 1 races. Obviously, he won’t make it, and I don’t think that Henry is the best miler trained by Aiden… at all. He’s a brilliant horse, don’t take me wrong, but quite far from what his trainer was meaning to say three months ago. Might be a strategy for his retirement to Coolmore at the end of this season, or might be another big mistake, like when back in 2002 the ballydoyle team (EVERYONE there) was saying that Hawk Wing was the better horse in that super powerful thoroughbrec empire. We all know he wasn’t. The Rock was a much better miler, and High Chaparral a much better 12f competitor.
So, he either is very good at marketing Coolmore (at the end of the day he gets paid by the Coolmore supremos), or sometimes he misjudges some of his better horses badly, badly.
Henry’s defeat on Saturday comes without excuse, even the ground was a bit firmer, I think he wouldn’t have come out first, Raven’s run a crackin’ race, and, IMO, what would have hapened is that HTN could have come a bit closer… but that’s all. Murtagh, I think, should have try to put Gosden’s colt under pressure a bit earlier if he wanted to have a better chance at all.
I don’t know if they’ll clash again in the BC at Santa Anita, but should they do, there’ll be two options.
In the Classic, or in the Mile.
In the first one, I don’t see them beating either Curlin or Big Brown.
In the second one, my money would go to RP.
I think he still has improvement in him, while Henry might have lost a bit of his top form.The day has come!
With Good ground, as it looks it’s going to be, I think Henry will win it.
Tamayuz second and Raven’s third.
Best of lucks to everyone, and enjoy a crackin’ day at Ascot.Looks as if "The Duke" will show up at Longchamp for the Arc.
I really hope he will, what a duel against the Aga’s filly…I disagree with andyod.
IMHO, Zarkava has the heart to catch Septimus. She is a super high class individual.
And I’ll go a bit further if allowed, and say that she can even catch DOM should the Coolmore representative hit the front a couple of furlongs from home. That turn of foot that she has is very special. And with the weight that both of O’Brien horses will have to conceed her… I see a female, fifteen years after Urban Sea, winning the Arc. And I’ll be a very happy man…
I know that the Duke has proven in his last five races that he is in top form, and a very serious contender that battles all the way to the line, but Zarkava, IMO, has that extra gear in her that can make the difference.It’s of course going to be a mouthwatering duel… if the Duke shows up.
carvillshill, I completely agree.
Yesterday he showed that he’s a very gutsy runner, in a ground that’s not his favourite, and against two very good colts, Shaweel and Arazan. (I wouldn’t dismiss this last one at all, I think he might be a very interesting project for next year even though yesterday he failed to quicken up two out when MK urged him to do so).
If he did what he did on heavy ground, winning his second 7f race in a row, I don’t see a problem with him handling 1m at Newmarket in the spring.
Of course it’s still very early, and Ballydoyle has another two that I suspect are going to shine their own merits out: Rip Van Winkle and Hail Caesar.
But for now, and until the contrary is proven, he’s the best two year old colt around IMO.I think if the ground is good, HTN will win again.
If it’s Soft, my feeling is that Tamayuz will get away with the race.
Raven’s? I consider him a little bit inferior to those two, he’s always very close but fails to find the final sparking gear against them.IMHO, Zarkava was EXTRAORDINARY yesterday. She put up an astonishing performance in a very fast run race, after being out of the competition for a little bit more than three months.
She deserves all the credit to be well supported in the Arc, but 6-4 might be too low.
I’ll stick to my guns, and put even a little bit more money into the exactas NA-Zarkava, NA-VDE, and Zarkava-VDE.Amazing performance by the daughter of Dynaformer and No Matter What.
If I was Mr. Gosden, I’ll keep her for a prep next year, and then tackle the 1,000.She has all the credentials to become a Classic winner (1,000 G.) in 2009.
And, for once and all, defeat the AOB representatives…
for a change!No, and actually I thought he would run, that’s why in my previous message I considered him as a serious candidate.
But I went onto
http://www2.france-galop.com/FGWeb/doma … .aspx?L=enand clicked on Longchamp for 14th of September, checked the runners for Sunday’s card, and… the three of them out!!! Until Monday afternoon, they were all possibles.
Fortunately, Zarkava is still in for the Vermeille (after a scintillating last morning gallop by the way), and both Vision D’Etat and PW in the Niel.
