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Aaaaaaaaaaargh,
Soldier of Fortune, Papal Bull and Youmzain, all out of the Foy!!!
Zambezi Sun looks the most serious contender for that prep now.I’ll be "romantic" for this years Leger.
Conduit and the two fillies, Look Here and Unsung Heroine.
Not sure if FF will stand the trip…IMHO the "class" of the race is between RVW and Zacinto. Impressive both of them in their last outings, Zacinto’s only one for now.
That would be my exacta.
Though for nice money, War Native at 7/1 is a cool call.Sorry, my first part of the previous message is a quote from Fist of Fury 2k8.
Not sure what I did wrong.
Apologies to all of you.Funny thing about racing Colin is that if she wins you will kick yourself and your head will then tell you "I knew she would"
I’m not SOF fan by any stretch of the imagination. He won his position in the market after defeting Getaway who simply had a bad day.
I can’t understand anyone seriously fancying him to win but it would not shock me if he got a place with luck in running.
New Approach will probably do everything in his power to beat himself whichb is such a pity as he is a very very good horse.
I already backed him as a saver when I first backed Zarkava but he wouldn’t save me now if the filly got beat.
Perhaps Getaway never beat that much last time but if he goes to the Arc in top form he would be my selection to cause a minor upset.
However bith my heart and my head tell me this filly is extra special. With that in mind and the fact that the only other horse who has caught the imagination this season (DOM) won’t be around it is not agreat Arc.
So inclusion I think she only needs to be half as good as I think she is to have a very good chance of winning and if she is as good as I think the rest would beas well staying at home.
GL with whatever you end up doing though.
I think SOF is a better horse than Getaway any day given.
And I think that O’Brien has been preparing the Soldier for the October showpiece since June. If he wins the Foy on Sunday, I don’t think that he’ll be out of the three… unless he gets injured or very severely hampered in the final straight.I totally agree with your points on both NA and Zarkava.
I think what happened with her gallop yesterday was that she’s been out of competition for a very long time, and just needs the action again. I wouldn’t be concerned at all, it’s completely normal that it takes a couple of gallops to go back to impressing form after such a long period. It happened the same with Curlin before his victory in the Woodward after his defeat in turf, to mention just one recent example.Clivex, the reason why I don’t see Youmzain (of course I might be wrong, this is just my personal opinion) as a great danger to the four I mentioned in my original post is that I consider him a "mystery horse". He runs well, then terribly, then well, then bad again. I mean, he’s not consistent at all.
His victory in the GP de Saint-Cloud was great, defeating SOF after this one run away with the Coronation, but his KG was dreadful. True that he was a bit hampered turning for home, but he came nine lengths behind DOM and PB. Too bad, even his jockey admited it after the race. He’ll run this Sunday in the Foy, and there he’ll probably have a nice chance of getting close to SOF and PB, but the Arc will probably be a different story. I honestly don’t see him as such a great danger, though if you decide to back him in the end… you’ll cash some pretty nice money. Best of lucks.Reet hard, Zarkava will be retired to stud after the Arc, that’s for sure. It’s the Aga’s policy to retire his fillies, normally, at the end of their three year old season. His broodmares have a very high weight in his breeding operations, and if the daughter of Zamindar wins both the Vermeille and the Arc (not impossible at all), imagine…
Carvillshill, PW is still in for the Niel. My best would be for him to finish second behind Vision D’Etat, who I still consider the "hidden horse" for the Arc. But whoever of the two wins, will be the best three year old colt attending the race together with NA.
Best to all.
I personally think the Arc is a four horse race.
In strict alphabetical order:New Approach: I think he has already proven he’s a fantastic horse. I wouldn’t say a crack, but definitely a hell of a good galloper. He stands the trip (Epsom proves it), and though yesterday without the Duke he didn’t beat a great deal, he won with more ease than the distances at the finishing line suggests IMHO. And I’m also convinced that he had more gas i the tank in case needed. He’s a very serious contender for the great Longchamp masterpiece.
Soldier of Fortune: AOB has kept him for the Arc since June. It’s very clear to me. With Duke of Marmalade in stratospheric form, he can have the luxury of playing with one during the summer, and save the other for the autumn campaign. Even though he suggests today in the Racing Post that the Arc could be an "option" for Duke, I think that in that distance SOF is better. He’ll probably run this Sunday on the Prix Foy, and IMO he’s gonna be very difficult to beat, as he always run greatly in Longchamp, as already stated in a previous post.
Vision D’Etat: Best French 3-y-o, unbeaten, and will stand the trip. I think he’ll go to the Niel, and I can’t see anyone beating him there. If he wons in six days time, he’ll go to the Arc in peak form.
Zarkava: Week after week we get confirmation that her races are rock-solid form. I think the Vermeille will confirm this, and yes, she has to race against the colts yet, but if she has a clear run, that turn of foot, oh man, that turn of foot can bring the first filly winning the Arc in fifteen years. My heart will be with her, but my head says that both New Approach and Soldier of Fortune will be terrific opponents on the day.
Others with some possibility of running away with the 2,3 million Euros?
Getaway (Frankie can help here) and Papal Bull (if he confirms form of KG).
The rest have a much lower ratings IMO.
I would go for any EW involving NA, SOF and Zarkava.
Where was Honoured Guest? He should have been Henry’s pacemaker…
Anyway, ground too soft for the son of Kingmambo, who was never travelling well. He only changed gear in the final furlong.
I think QEII should be next, and with good ground, I’m sure we’ll see him back to his best. But, better tactics (Tamayuz and Raven’s are no weak rivals), and not giving a 12 lengths advantage. Otherwise, he’ll have a world to make up.
If conditions run normally, I think he’ll be back in the winner’s enclosure.
