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Here’s my theory on this. It might sound like complete rubbish but it’s how I read tomorrow for HTN.
On soft ground tomorrow you will ideally need a horse who is not limited to a mile but one that can run further. A horse than has shown or is believed to be able to run a 1m2f race would have a much better chance here. It’s a similar situation to what MDeering was stating about US Ranger being favoured in heavy conditions at Haydock if it was run due to his previous runs on 7f and entries in mile competitions.
AOB, I think, has left HTN in here as this has changed from a normal mile race to a ‘wannabee’ 1m2f race. Not only is it another chance for HTN to prove himself over a mile but it is also a Breeders Cup trial now. AOB has said for a while now that the Breeders Cup Classic will be HTN’s next race. The Moulin is an inbetween.
In my opinion, to AOB it now looks like the best of both worlds and I think Henry can win tomorrow. AOB was considering the Irish Champion Stakes for HTN even when it was said to be Good (good to soft in places) at Leopardstown so why would he be worried about a stiff mile here?
HTN is now 11/8 on Paddy Power and I’m seriously considering taking a gamble and putting some more on.
Natagora also has a great chance having run at Longchamp over the French Derby distance. I think she’ll end up 2nd here but may push HTN. 11/1 on Betfair is a ridiculously good price.
Darjina hates this weather and was taken out at Newmarket because of soft ground. I doubt she’ll be up there in the final furlong or so.
HTN for me. I’m sure you’re all thinking ‘what is he on?!!’ but I honestly believe HTN will win tomorrow.
Dan
Dan,
A couple of APB’s quotes….
our colt was always struggling and was clearly hating the ground. He was in trouble well before he got to the front.
our fellow just doesn’t like that sort of going. Hopefully, he will get better ground next time.
He is a real fast ground horse, a real miler with loads of sprinting speed.
Not sure I would want to go in @ 11/8 until I saw what the weather/going was tomorrow?
By no means an easy race for HTN on Good to Soft, so any softer than that and he will surely drift further?
Thats not to say he won’t win though.
I’ve taken a small nibble on Natagora at 10/1 too just to cover myself incase the ground gets too soft or HTN is pulled out but I’m still sticking to my guns over HTN.
I think if it’ll be a case of if it gets too bad for HTN to win then AOB will take him out anyway.
If he runs I honestly think he will win.
I’ve taken a small nibble on Natagora at 10/1 too just to cover myself incase the ground gets too soft or HTN is pulled out but I’m still sticking to my guns over HTN.
I think if it’ll be a case of if it gets too bad for HTN to win then AOB will take him out anyway.
If he runs I honestly think he will win.
Very wise. If Henry does get taken out she’s sure to shorten. If Henry doesn’t run then the probability is that Honoured Guest won’t, either.
Should this happen, Natagora could well steal the race from the front.
Can’t see her finishing outside the first three, so 10/1 is a great price. Even better if she wins.
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It should be said though that Tamayuz was well beaten in the French Guineas (Like Paco Boy) and has since proven that form all wrong. As has Paco Boy.
Tamayuz was beaten by the draw in that race and had to come from an impossible position in the straight. Paco Boy was also in the same positiion and got murdered trying to run through the field. Having said that, everything points to PB being a better horse at 7f.
I’m sure I read somewhere that the Longchamp going stick read 3.6 on Friday, which would be on the soft side of good on the French scale. Any appreciable rain since will surely scupper HTN’s chances.
Goldikova has, in the words of her trainer “come on a lot, both in her head and physically, and this has happened since the Diane.”, won both her races since, and I can’t really see any of those behind her in the Rothschild reversing the form. I wouldn’t normally take a filly against colts at this level, but she could well win this by default.Reet
Why is Paco likely to be better at 7f? Ok, its a specialist distance but the way he travlled last time gave no indication that he wouldnt get a mile and maybe even improve. Breeding would indicate its fine too
Ive been a big fan of HTN but cannot back him on this ground.
Am I the only backer of HTN today
?Natagora looks very weak in this mornings market too…..
- Total Posts 17716
Reet
Why is Paco likely to be better at 7f? Ok, its a specialist distance but the way he travlled last time gave no indication that he wouldnt get a mile and maybe even improve. Breeding would indicate its fine too
Clivex
I’m no expert on breeding, but none of the form of his siblings suggest he’ll improve at 1m.
Neither does the way he’s quickened to put his races to bed well before the distance at 7f either.
Sure he’ll get a mile, but the way he finished last time he tried it suggests it wouldn’t be fast enough at this level.- Total Posts 17716
Goldikova has given the Zarkava form a massive boost.
Goldikova has, in the words of her trainer "come on a lot, both in her head and physically, and this has happened since the Diane.",
And at a distance well in excess of her best?
Dream on, Ian, dream on.In a hot renewal of the Moulin, Goldikova paid another huge compliment to Zarkava, who has beaten her twice.
Darjina ran another fine race to claim second on unsuitable ground.
Paco Boy an unlucky third? Richard Hughes will no doubt come in for some criticism.
Unsuitable ground and a poor draw, Henry was beaten after two furlongs.
Natagora travelled well, but found little
A fine performance by Goldikova, let’s hope she makes the journey over to Ascot for the QEII.
Where now for Henry gents?
Breeders Cup or QEStakes? I cant help but think AOB may want to beat the French fillys on Henry’s best ground over here now
Where now for Henry gents?
Breeders Cup or QEStakes? I cant help but think AOB may want to beat the French fillys on Henry’s best ground over here now
On quicker ground, I’d fancy Henry to take revenge.
Interesting to see how the bookies will react.
Seems to be no impulse change on either antepost markets yet which is interesting……Its kind of like the bookies striking a line through the whole race!
Where was Honoured Guest? He should have been Henry’s pacemaker…
Anyway, ground too soft for the son of Kingmambo, who was never travelling well. He only changed gear in the final furlong.
I think QEII should be next, and with good ground, I’m sure we’ll see him back to his best. But, better tactics (Tamayuz and Raven’s are no weak rivals), and not giving a 12 lengths advantage. Otherwise, he’ll have a world to make up.
If conditions run normally, I think he’ll be back in the winner’s enclosure.
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