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The market is saying this is a 6 horse race between LR, Kauto, MM, Captain Chris, Somersby and Diamond Harry.
The last two are fairly exposed now and seem to lack the class to win. I am not sure about CC – he has never raced over 3 miles and might be short of race practice. Similarly MM might not get the trip. On the other hand presumably the trainers know what they are doing.
Kauto was third last year despite a burst blood vessel. Conceivably he might have won otherwise, although he was beaten by Long Run by a long way in the subsequent Gold Cup when both were probably at peak fitness. In my view Kauto prefers Kempton to Cheltenham given his record overall. And as he has beaten LR recently on a flat track his odds of 9/2 seem quite generous either win or e/w. Difficult to see him out of the first three given the paucity of opposition.
The flipside :
Kauto was trained to the second for Haydock, Long Run was not, and Henderson’s have improved since then.
Both horses were 6 when winning their first King George in similar conditions, Long Run in the quicker time, and had also proven a liking for the course in the Feltham. Also, i think Long Run was tested more in his first year in Britain, running in a Feltham, an RSA and a Paddy Power before attempting the King George against quality opposition. Kauto a couple of wins to his name and a brief run in the Queen Mother, before meeting opposition at Kempton that was thin on quality.Long Run could well be a better horse than Kauto was at a similar stage in his career. Would you take on a 2007 Kauto with todays vintage ?
The only slight doubt for me is still Wally. I just think Long Run would be even better with Geraghty in the saddle
I’ve been disappointed with Henderson’s entries again this season. Where as Nicholls has horses in all the big races, most times more than one, there have been some valuable races without a Henderson runner. Huge stable with talented horses – don’t understand it. Big races at Grade 1 tracks.
Likely that he’ll have only the one runner in this.
Henderson strength is in hurdlers and two milers at that, he is the best at that discipline in the UK. Comparitively he doesnt have many staying horses….so many races will pass without an entry
He has lots of chasers, but makes mistakes with entries etc.
( Daves Dream is a two miler yet they persist with the 2.5 mile chases )
Master Of The Hall has ruined his handicap mark for £20,000 when there are £50,000 handicaps about. Just think they could be targeted better. He also has some stayers running over inadequate tripsSome strange decisions from the Hobbs yard in recent times.
Quinz in the National was unbelievably bad.
Riding out a finish a circuit too soon is not uncommon at Fakenham.
Why do you think that is Paul? Is there some feature of the course that hoodwinks them or just a statistical anomaly?
Short course. Rare to require that many circuits of a course to complete a race.
I’m still in Ongenstown Lad’s camp for this, but would like to see it given a run beforehand.
I’ve been disappointed with Henderson’s entries again this season. Where as Nicholls has horses in all the big races, most times more than one, there have been some valuable races without a Henderson runner. Huge stable with talented horses – don’t understand it. Big races at Grade 1 tracks.
Likely that he’ll have only the one runner in this.
It is patently obvious to all that he rode a finish a circuit too soon. He actually looked over his shoulder for challengers on 3 occaisions, and certainly made no attempt to pull the horse up before the finishing line.
Which begs the question – why no further enquiry ? If the stewards don’t believe his excuse and so impose the ban , they must assume he’s lied to them. Fallon was fined for not giving full disclosure to Chester stewards
His father’s influence ?
You can’t accuse people willy nilly of lying Mark therefore they just don’t accept Wally Cohen’s explanation and leave it at that.
They had evidence and proof against Fallon.How many folk thought Sean Fox jumped off Ice Saint a few years ago but he was exonerated.
They have accused him of lying by not accepting his explanation.
It is patently obvious to all that he rode a finish a circuit too soon. He actually looked over his shoulder for challengers on 3 occaisions, and certainly made no attempt to pull the horse up before the finishing line.
Which begs the question – why no further enquiry ? If the stewards don’t believe his excuse and so impose the ban , they must assume he’s lied to them. Fallon was fined for not giving full disclosure to Chester stewards
His father’s influence ?
Sometime in the future a jockey will probably ride a finish a circuit too early again. It happens.
People make mistakes.
SWC made one, looked like a prat then tried to salvage face. Not the first person to have done this and won’t be the last. He’s got a ban and his pride’s taken a good kicking. I don’t see any reason to berate him any further.
I think you’re missing the part where he lied. He refuses to even acknowledge his mistake, and so until he does, he deserves all he gets. I’m glad his conduct would do for you.
I’d have no problem if he held his hands up and apologised. And what about the scant disregard for punters?
Yep. Did he apologise to punters and racegoers ? No.
Ridiculous from Pitman, too. How can a horseman agree with that method of pulling a horse up – a few furlongs after Waley Cohen first looked round and subsequently jumped fences ?!
As De Fer
Course, distance and going should be no problem. Is it up to this class ? Possibly
Neptune Equester
Can understand the lure of the Grand National but think this race would be better. Loves soft going, stays all days, lovely weight, nice prep. Better chance all round than in April.
Giles Cross
Obvious chance of going one better.
the problem was that he tried to deny it, instead of being man enough to admit he’d made a mistake.
Made it ten times worse.
But it hasn’t made it worse because he has been banned for the incident itself only.
"Yeah, well, i thought i heard something – he’s had breathing troubles before – but i looked round and thought i’d jump one more fence. Then i looked round and jumped another fence. Then i decided to pull the horse up by riding it over the finish line. I didn’t realise my mistake afterwards, i didn’t formulate a plan, and i didn’t dismount the horse to try and influence your opinion "
He’s lied to the stewards, ridden a finish a circuit too early, and is given 12 days. Not much longer than someone trying to win a race but using a whip a few times too many. Racing is ridiculous.
He was obviously riding a finish because he looked round prior to jumping two fences and then pushed the horse over the line.
I’d backed it, it looked like a winner. Can i have my money back, please, Sam ?*
* Obviously joking.
Stamina is a major issue with the Grand Naitional, but i think this placed fourth or higher in a 3 mile + race is just a stat grasped from thin air. Some superficial changes because they’re pandering to people with little knowledge of the sport.
This is an attempt to eliminate non stayers. While the are loopholes in this rule which will be exploited, some trainers use to say you need a good two and half mile chaser to win the national. They believed that the first circuit you just try to survive it and raced on the second. This might have been true once, I personally doubt it, but now you need something which can get over 3 miles.
Fact is you’ve always needed a horse that would stay four and a half miles. The two and a half theory – never subscribed to it. Nicky Henderson said it once when considering entering Fondmort for the race – thank **** he never did that !
Both horses that tragically died this year would still have qualified under the new rules.
Party Politics won in a much quicker time than Hedgehunter under similar conditions. It was a quality race back then with stiffer fences.
Speaking of politics, that’s what this is, and now that people have influenced the race, they’ll be back every couple of years with further suggestions.
There’s much wrong with racing, but the BHA continue to oversee the sport with more madness than method. The similarities with football are clear, just that football is much richer.
Stamina is a major issue with the Grand Naitional, but i think this placed fourth or higher in a 3 mile + race is just a stat grasped from thin air. Some superficial changes because they’re pandering to people with little knowledge of the sport.
Also, i love the cliche that gets rattled off now about the Grand National being a better race because 20 years ago it was full of 120 rated slow paced nags :
Party Politics won in 1992, was rated 153 and ran off 10-7
Royal Athlete won in 1995, was rated 155 and ran off 10-6
Minnehoma won in 1994, was rated 153 and ran off 10-8These were good races with quality horses.
People praise the handicapper for compressing the weights, but a few years ago he had Crozan – winner of one novice chase – rated only 3 or 4 lbs below Monkerhostin. That’s crazy, and potentially dangerous for the horse.
Some commentators should get their facts straight before they go on air. How many times have we heard one talk about the great form of a trainer, when in actual fact they’ve had one winner from twenty runners ? Think it was someone waxing lyrical a few weeks ago about Gosden and a look at the stats told you he was going through one of the worst spells of the season.
Cliches, platitudes. Racing is full of them.
Ferdy Murphys stable is well known to have a "slow" start. This "needing the run" business is now so out of touch he is way behind a lot of the trainers.
I find it hard to believe how badly his horses are running and people put it down to, "well thats just Ferdy", I’m sorry but thats old school now, and trainers are way ahead of him.
He had a poor-average season last year, he blamed the snow, yes it was a bad month or two, but when your horses aren’t fit and then the snow comes, you may as well give up. We had horrendous snow in Scotland yet Lucinda Russell managed to fire out 41 winners and have her best season, Ferdy has so far fired out 2 winners this season with a 3% strike rate, in the last five years he’s gone from 61 to 29 winners.
I watched Divers today, a class horse, who ran terrible and probably was 70% fit, what a way to dissapoint the horse and owners, poor Graham Lee must be pulling his hair out.
I know it’s a bit harsh to have a go, but he is rapidly falling behind the Nicholls, Pipes, Vaughans, Longsdens and in the north McCains and Russells, who all realise they need to fire out winners all the year around for their owners and stable profile.
Ferdy needs to move on, or he will be left behind.
Rapidly falling behind ? He’s always been behind. Wouldn’t trust his runners as far as i could throw them.
Then he gets one ready for Cheltenham and it’s cliche time ! " Murphy – always one for the big races "We often come across race when a jockey drops his hands near the finish of the race, loses 2nd or 3rd place and end up with a hefty ban.
I wasn’t around yesterday, didn’t have a bet, so I was just catching up on some video watching.
I can’t believe what I just saw.
Richard Johnson, was riding Artic Ben in the 1.50 at Towester.
I watched this race live. He was travelling comfortably and when he started to go backwards, i expected to see him urge / bump the horse along. Nothing. If you look closely he talks to the jockey of the eventual winner at the bottom of the straight. No effort, just sits there.
I expected him to walk in last but then you side him ride out the finish !I’d love to hear an explanation but the race wasn’t high profile enough