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Bostons Angel’s RSA didn’t turn out to be much of a stamina test, but this will, imo, and he should thrive on it.
I thought his win was all about stamina to be honest Reet. Jessies Dream looked to have him cooked turning in but Bostons Angels will to win got him home. I’d be worried about his fitness for today, especially after seeing the run of Oscars Well yesterday. There are slight doubts about all the runners though, and I’d still expect him to run well.
Winning a race like this at this time of the season is very often more down to grit and determination than it is class.
The reason being, very few are tuned to the minute as it’s along season.
Boston Angels fits the bill if Jessica Harrington has him forward enough. In the past he’s needed his first run but he’s improved stones since then so I’m putting it down to her bringing the horse along slowly.
I just wish you were my bookie Ginger 11/2?
You say if he was 3rd or 4th he’d be a much greater price. If Frankel had finished last in the Guineas he’d have been a bigger price next time as well
Totally illogical statement to make. Don’t ever take up bookmaking
:wink:
Wherever Boston Angel finishes you’d expect Quito De La Roque to be close by and the 2 could easily fight out another finish. I slightly prefer the former at this time of the season.
People tend to automatically say a race was poor quality when the hot pot runs below par
but that for me wasn’t the case in the RSA.
The first 4 are all great prospects in their own right having won grade 1 and grade 2 chases, all ran excellent races on the day the form was almost copybook.
The Nightingale on soft ground over this trip I’d lay all day. In fact I’d lay him all day in any race. Don’t like the horse at all.
No doubt Sizing Europe will be there for a long way and could actually never be out of cruise control and win but I doubt if he’ll be cruising long enough with Midnight Chase in the race.
I don’t know why Midnight Chase was withdrawn at Wetherby and ended up here but here he is and he must be taken seriously.
He won’t mind the ground and he’s sure to have half of these at it by half way.
I think he’ll go very well here but may be worn down by Boston Angel but tbh I can’t split them.
Midnight Chase
Boston Angel
against the field + rfcI don’t care if the fav is unplaced if the form looks good, but it doesn’t in this case. Of course Boston Angel is a "good" horse compared to an average animal, but compared to other RSA chases the form is poor.
If you don’t know the difference between a 100% book and a bookmaker’s book H, I wish you were my bookmaker too.
(Look away now Reet
Just a short explanation for H).
I rate Boston Angel a 15.5% chance of winning, fair odds for any selection with a 15.4% is 11/2. If a bookmaker believes something to be fair odds of 11/2 he/she would add a mark up and offer 9/2. So if I were your bookmaker H, I wouldn’t offer 11/2 at all.(OK Reet, you can carry on reading now)
As for my "totally illogical statement"… Difference between first (Boston Angel) and (Magnanimity) fourth in the 3m 110yrds RSA was a little over 1 length. That means the difference in form terms of being first and fourth in the RSA is just 1 lb. Therefore, had Boston Angel been fourth, he’d have just a 1 lb worse chance than he does today. So Boston Angel’s chance today would be virtually the same had he only been fourth at Cheltenham. Yet had he been fourth, there is no way he’d be 7/2 today.It’s all about logic H.
Had Frankel finished last instead of first the difference in lbs would be vast.
Not quite the same is it?Looking at Boston Angel’s run before Cheltenham in the Moriarty, Boston Angel beat Magnanimity a head at level weights. So Boston Angel was hardly improving in leaps and bounds either.
Boston Angel obviously has a chance of winning, but (imo) not as much as betting suggests. Especially (as THM points out) Jessie is in poor form at the moment.
It seems the vibes are suggesting Quito is going to need the run. Fingers crossed.
At least we agree on Midnight Chase H.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
Does your ‘logic’ take into account that Bostons Angel has already beaten Quito DLR – on exactly the same terms as today?ps Don’t answer that, as it’s too early in the day to be reading another half-page of tripe.
All hail Davy Russell !
I had accepted four out that my money was down the drain without due regard to the tenacity of both horse and rider. Has to be ride of the season thus far. Exceptional work. Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Brilliant ride, such a pity Boston Angel fell but what about Sizing Europe?
He clearly doesn’t stay and races like that can tear the guts out of good horses.
This owner must be the ghost of Henry Alper who insisted running Persian War in everything going and would have run him into the ground if he hadn’t been so tough.
Hopefully Sizing Europe comes out of this ok as he’s a lovely horse
Great race, great ride by Davy Russell. Not sure about the quality of the race, but I expect most improvement from Quito.
I understand SEs connections persisting at 3 miles; it’s a more prestigious distance. If he hadn’t made that mistake at the second last he’d probably have held on. On good ground the King George might still be an option, but I think they all ahd a really hard race, and a good rest is in order.
It also makes Rubi Light look better, tho on a line with Coolcashin, SE obviously came on significantly for that runWinning a race like this at this time of the season is very often more down to grit and determination than it is class.
The reason being, very few are tuned to the minute as it’s along season.
Boston Angels fits the bill if Jessica Harrington has him forward enough. In the past he’s needed his first run but he’s improved stones since then so I’m putting it down to her bringing the horse along slowly.
I just wish you were my bookie Ginger 11/2?
You say if he was 3rd or 4th he’d be a much greater price. If Frankel had finished last in the Guineas he’d have been a bigger price next time as well
Totally illogical statement to make. Don’t ever take up bookmaking
:wink:
Wherever Boston Angel finishes you’d expect Quito De La Roque to be close by and the 2 could easily fight out another finish. I slightly prefer the former at this time of the season.
People tend to automatically say a race was poor quality when the hot pot runs below par
but that for me wasn’t the case in the RSA.
The first 4 are all great prospects in their own right having won grade 1 and grade 2 chases, all ran excellent races on the day the form was almost copybook.
The Nightingale on soft ground over this trip I’d lay all day. In fact I’d lay him all day in any race. Don’t like the horse at all.
No doubt Sizing Europe will be there for a long way and could actually never be out of cruise control and win but I doubt if he’ll be cruising long enough with Midnight Chase in the race.
I don’t know why Midnight Chase was withdrawn at Wetherby and ended up here but here he is and he must be taken seriously.
He won’t mind the ground and he’s sure to have half of these at it by half way.
I think he’ll go very well here but may be worn down by Boston Angel but tbh I can’t split them.
Midnight Chase
Boston Angel
against the field + rfcI don’t care if the fav is unplaced if the form looks good, but it doesn’t in this case. Of course Boston Angel is a "good" horse compared to an average animal, but compared to other RSA chases the form is poor.
If you don’t know the difference between a 100% book and a bookmaker’s book H, I wish you were my bookmaker too.
(Look away now Reet
Just a short explanation for H).
I rate Boston Angel a 15.5% chance of winning, fair odds for any selection with a 15.4% is 11/2. If a bookmaker believes something to be fair odds of 11/2 he/she would add a mark up and offer 9/2. So if I were your bookmaker H, I wouldn’t offer 11/2 at all.(OK Reet, you can carry on reading now)
As for my "totally illogical statement"… Difference between first (Boston Angel) and (Magnanimity) fourth in the 3m 110yrds RSA was a little over 1 length. That means the difference in form terms of being first and fourth in the RSA is just 1 lb. Therefore, had Boston Angel been fourth, he’d have just a 1 lb worse chance than he does today. So Boston Angel’s chance today would be virtually the same had he only been fourth at Cheltenham. Yet had he been fourth, there is no way he’d be 7/2 today.It’s all about logic H.
Had Frankel finished last instead of first the difference in lbs would be vast.
Not quite the same is it?Looking at Boston Angel’s run before Cheltenham in the Moriarty, Boston Angel beat Magnanimity a head at level weights. So Boston Angel was hardly improving in leaps and bounds either.
Boston Angel obviously has a chance of winning, but (imo) not as much as betting suggests. Especially (as THM points out) Jessie is in poor form at the moment.
It seems the vibes are suggesting Quito is going to need the run. Fingers crossed.
At least we agree on Midnight Chase H.
So then Ginger what do you think now? It would be a brave man who would say Boston Angel wouldn’t have won today as he was under no real pressure when he came down and stays every bit as well as the winner who wasn’t travelling anywhere near as well at the time of his departure. I think he’s been very unlucky today although that’s taking it he wouldn’t have blown in the latter stages.
I honestly think your underestimating just how good this group of Irish horses are.
Granted neither the 2nd or the 3rd stayed a yard of 3 miles. Well Sizing Europe didn’t and it was sad to see him finish legless. As far as the Nightingale goes he’s just a complete dog who’d do the same thing at any distance the minute he comes under pressure.
Holes in the form for sure but no holes in the winner who’s got a great future ahead of him.
So then Ginger what do you think now? It would be a brave man who would say Boston Angel wouldn’t have won today as he was under no real pressure when he came down and stays every bit as well as the winner who wasn’t travelling anywhere near as well at the time of his departure. I think he’s been very unlucky today although that’s taking it he wouldn’t have blown in the latter stages.
I honestly think your underestimating just how good this group of Irish horses are.
Granted neither the 2nd or the 3rd stayed a yard of 3 miles. Well Sizing Europe didn’t and it was sad to see him finish legless. As far as the Nightingale goes he’s just a complete dog who’d do the same thing at any distance the minute he comes under pressure.
Holes in the form for sure but no holes in the winner who’s got a great future ahead of him.
The Nightingale has won 50% of his 10 completed starts, so how can you can say he’d "do the same thing at any distance the minute he comes under pressure"? 5 out of 10 isn’t bad for a "complete dog".
Surprised Carberry and Lynch went for home quite so early, being on doubtful stayers. Both have chances with less of a test. Wish I’d been on betfair at the time, apparently Quito touched 100 in running. He was always going to finish strongly with the two leaders coming back to him given the strong pace. Although was a little surprised just by how much, 100 was far too big (even if it wasn’t for hindsight).
Your assertion H, that Boston Angel has as much stamina or would’ve won is a strange one. Jessica Harrington’s horse won at 2m4f in a Grade 1, extremely doubtful Quito De La Roque would be capable of such a thing. You should expect Boston Angel to travel better than Quito De La Roque at that point. Boston Angel was being pushed along at the time of his fall. Although nobody can say he would not have won, I believe it unlikely. I don’t care, I backed the winner!
Suspect those first four in the RSA will win races this year, probably taking it in turns. Don’t expect them to be Gold Cup class or be up to beating Quito De La Roque (given soft/heavy ground and 3m+). With proviso the winner will probably need time to get over his exertions.
Value Is EverythingGinger
Does your ‘logic’ take into account that Bostons Angel has already beaten Quito DLR – on exactly the same terms as today?ps Don’t answer that, as it’s too early in the day to be reading another half-page of tripe.
I’ll answer, but will keep it brief Reet.Yes I took it in to account, but Quito had improved since.
"Tripe" seems to work for me!
Value Is EverythingNot a hope Bostons Angel would have won that race had he stood up. All of Harrington’s are needing the run – look at how Oscars Well cut out before the last on Friday.
Quito de la Roque seems a very special horse, great determination and great ride from Davey Russell, only worry is given he does need a few reminders, Davey may get a serious punishment if the same whip rules are in place come Cheltenham.
- Total Posts 17716
Couldn’t say where Bostons Angel would have finished, but I wouldn’t have the winner on my mind for anything but a slog.
Long before fitness became an issue he was being outpaced, in a none too quickly run race, by just about everything in the field, and only a catalogue of errors by the others allowed him to even feature.
One of the Nationals, maybe; though I can’t see him even making the line up for the Gold Cup on today’s showingNot a hope Bostons Angel would have won that race had he stood up. All of Harrington’s are needing the run – look at how Oscars Well cut out before the last on Friday.
Personally I use my eyes and not a handful of stats.
Anyway a few of hers have run very well if not winning and were far from completely unfit.
Boston Angel was going forward and just starting to get into the race when he came down and without knowing what races she has in mind for both Boston’s Angel and Oscars you’re doing nothing more than stabbing a guess. Oscars ran well enough as he did when beaten first time out for the last 2 years.
At least I said presuming he didn’t blow up. looking at the way the 2 in front stopped like shot I’d say he’d only needed to see out the trip to pass them.
Many trainers send out a batch of runners almsost all needing the run and before you know it the next batch all start winning first time out. PN does exactly that so why not her?
Must say I have to agree with Imperial Call here in that I don’t think Bostons Angel would have won had he stood up. He has never won first time out and there’s no way Puppy Power would have been in any way hard on the horse in the finish. Maybe Jetson will win first time up today for Jessie, plenty of support for him anyway.
I was also one of those who used to think Quito could be a national horse. When he won his handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse I thought he’d be back some day winning an Irish National. But what we saw last spring was a completely different machine. He was sluggish out there yesterday. His jumping was poor and it looked like he thought they were just out for a gallop. Like his brother Kazal, he doesn’t show much at home.
Come Cheltenham in March, we’ll see a transformed animal.
Just a short explanation for H).
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