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I look forward to how Brampour fares today as he really is in for a hiding to nothing from now on.On paper he is supposed to hose in and confirm the ‘big’ opinion the handicapper has of him,if he does then he’s a genuine 165 horse bearing in mind he is rated 168 and gets in here off a mark of 152 with his 7lb claimer then he really does need to show a clean pair of heels today to this lot,me being me though still thinks there’s a big race in
Via Galilei
and what with the weights as they are i think 20/1 is a massive price for a horse who generally travels well in his races and for me has to be placed.We’ll see!
Via Galilei
£200 e/w 20/1 Bet365 Ladbroke hurdle.
£8450This fellow still jumps off the page like i jump off the cliff following him,if only he could bloody jump,he’d be a good thing today.Having seen a ‘revitalised’ Zaynar yesterday i’m hoping Nick Williams can work his magic on
Reve de sivola
,he’s a grade 1 winner in a handicap,i said the same about Medermit last week,its form you just cant ignore,the difference is Medermit had his share of weight for being such,whereas Reve de sivola is thrown in….Again!
From what i’ve seen of him recently,he’ll race prominantly to start with,make a mistake and drop back,make another and drop back even further then plod on at the one pace and yet i still fancy him! He’s the sort you can ‘play’ with on the machine too at a big price,we’ll see later.Reve de sivola
£200 e/w 5/1 Ladbrokes.
£8050[attachment=0:17hv296n]2uy3myv.jpg[/attachment:17hv296n]
Medermit
needs you Choc,if you can get back for March you will have done well looking at the state of that arm! The price these jockeys pay eh!
Gord / tb,
You say Derham’s allowance that he was not allowed to claim should not be taken in to account. What if the two did not meet in the International, what if they met in a handicap and Brampour was set to give Grandouet 7 lbs. With Derham’s 7 lb claim bringing the weights level? (Exactly the same conditions as on Saturday). Where Grandouet beats Brampour by 4 lengths and a neck.The 7 lb allowance should be taken in to account.
Ginger, who was the best horse in the Derby this year according to this new found mathematical (twisted) logic? As per Dickinson’s thought process, think carefully about your answer.
Memphis Tennessee
is the answer Jose and that is a fine analogy Sir!
Think about this one Ginge,
Grandouet
rated 166 against
Brampour
now rated 168 in a handicap over 2 miles,this time however Grandouet gets a 7lb claimer on his back perhaps Harry himself!
Bearing in mind Grandouet has beaten brampour 4 lengths at levels,he is now getting a 9lb pull for actually doing so! Work that one out then! ‘How can that be right and fair’ as you put it.Grandouets beaten Brampour and in this scenario He’s getting all the favours to do it again! Gord,
The handicapper rates Brampour 168 and Grandouet 166. If you were the Handicapper, how would you rate them on the International run?I don’t mean: Who will eventually prove the best horse? Or anything like that. I think we agree on that one.
I take it you’d have Grandouet 166 and Brampour 161 (not allowing anything for Harry’s claim)?
If that is the case, then say the two horses meet in a handicap under exactly the same conditions, same distance, going, track,
SAME JOCKEYS
etc.
Brampour would be able to race off a mark
12 lbs less
than Grandouet (166 – 161 = 5 + 7 lb claim = 12), for a beating of only
4 lengths and a neck
!
How can that be right and fair?
For
handicapping purposes
, the official handicapper had little choice but to work the race out as he did.
Admittedly if
I
were doing a
private handicap
, it is my belief Harry Derham is well worth his claim. For every horse Harry rides with his 7 lbs claim, I add 3 lbs (on average) to its rating / chance. (For Brampour, who Harry gets on particularly well with, it could be 4 lbs). For every horse he rides without his 7 lbs claim, I’d have to take off 4 lbs (3 for Brampour) from his rating / chance.
Ginge,i’ve read the above post several times now and i still cant get my head round how you cant see thats how it is!
Look at Saturdays ‘Ladbroke’Brampour
gets in on 159 when he’s now rated 168,he also gets the 7lb claim off his back so in effect he’s 16lb well in! How can that be right and fair?
Why do you keep going on about the 7lb claim when it actually had no effect whatsoever in Saturdays race,unless of course you think the jockey under achieved by 7lb,i dont think so!
Interesting dilemma for Paul Nicholls though, he’s said Brampour’s unlikely to run in the Ladbroke, though he would (ostensibly) be 9lb well in, have the best recent form in the race, his jockey able to claim the 7lb he couldn’t on Saturday, and be keeping upwards of 11lb off stablemate and warm favourite, Prospect Wells.
Brampour runs, and with Harry Denham claiming 7.
Make of that what you will.I think he realises the handicapper has been harsh and is basically either going to make hay whilst he can or if
Via Galilei
beats him prove that he has been over-rated. If he wins comfortably i’ll be surprised even allowing for the fact he’s actually 16lb well in! If he was to run off 168 without a claimer he’d have No chance.If he does win he wont be re-assessed for sure.
Does ‘history’ matter to any but us anoraks?
It matters if you wear a leaky one
to suggest the history of such garment
made showerproof but loyal through
cold Scottish winters,
stood the test of time,
for me watchingSebastian vi
on the west coast,
through my snorkel,
tunnel vision,
it was REAL though!I’m not finished yet either!
Overturn
is a reliable yardstick,his form through Binocular alone puts him up in the high 160’s and he ran a good 5lb below his best on Saturday,probably because Cheltenham just doesn’t suit,particularly on winter ground,now if we give him the benefit of the doubt he would have defineately finshed alongside Grandouet as we have to consider the 4lb he was giving him,that would suggest to me he would have finished at least 5 lengths in front of Brampour,on a flat track he would eat Brampour and yet the handicapper marks him down to 166 from 168!
Again in a handicap Brampour will give Overturn 2lb,unbelievable assessment imo when you consider they finish alongside,Overturn not running to his best and Brampour running right up to his mark again but Overturn was giving him 4lb,so at levels he would have beaten him running below his best,i think the handicapper has made a massive mistake here and i wouldn’t be a happy owner if he was mine!Gord / tb,
You say Derham’s allowance that he was not allowed to claim should not be taken in to account. What if the two did not meet in the International, what if they met in a handicap and Brampour was set to give Grandouet 7 lbs. With Derham’s 7 lb claim bringing the weights level? (Exactly the same conditions as on Saturday). Where Grandouet beats Brampour by 4 lengths and a neck.The 7 lb allowance should be taken in to account.
Ginge thats pure hypothesis (How about that for a word Eclipse eh?
) The fact isBrampour
was rated 159 before the race and 168 after it,he’s been beaten by a better horse who was rated 164 before the race and 166 after it.I cant recall a runner-up going 9lb and the worthy winner only 2lb ever.What the handicapper is doing is assessing the jockey Harry Derham and not the horse here but the 7lb claim is totally irrelevant as it wasn’t allowed to be claimed so the handicapper is actually penalising Harry by saying you rode 7lb inferior to a Professional with no claim,anyone who has watched Harry ride Brampour will know this lad couldn’t have ridden any better the last 3 times he’s rode the horse,superb effort at both Cheltenham and Ascot prior to last weekends effort.
Should Brampour meet Grandouet in a handicap he will have to give his victor 2lb from now on and if Ruby rides him what chance has he got of reversing saturdays form where he was beaten a comfortable 4 lengths at levels? No chance!If last Saturdays race was a handicap and Grandouet had carried e,g 11-5 then Brampour would have carried 11-0 had Harry been allowed to claim his allowance of 7lb he would surely have won with 10-7,thats a total of 12lb,now for the benefit of handicapping purposes the claim is insignificant because it wasn’t involved in the outcome of the race and its the horse thats being assessed not the jockey so the result would have been a virtual dead heat therefore you would re-assess both horses with a 3lb rise culminating in Grandouet going up from 164 to 167 and Brampour going up from 159 to 162 that equates to Grandouet still being the better horse,had Harry been allowed to claim his 7lbs all you would do is add the figure to his winning distance because he would have won in receipt of 12lb and deduct it again from the horses total mark which equates to the same figure.Basically the claim is in significant in assessment its the horses official mark that figures are worked from.Anyway Brampour reminds me of the stablesRigmarole
a very good horse who beat Rooster Booster in a Bula but was never more than a very good handicapper not a Champion hurdler.We’ll see, but how anyone particularly a professional handicapper can say Brampour is better than Grandouet beggars belief!
I see the ‘talkin’ horse runs tomorrow at Newbury in what should be a procession,if
Time for Rupert
is fit and well he should win by 10 lengths in a canter. I wouldn’t lay him at 1/2 as he ‘Was’ different class to his 3 opponents.However i would be more than happy to see him fail to shine yet again just to prove his lack -lustre attempts of late are down to the horse,not the jockey who has ridden him in every race he’s contested,he could win this half fit but we know he’s a lot fitter than that so if he doesn’t win this pulling a cart then he’s still not right and that will exonerate Will Kennedy of any wrong doing!
Victor Chandler have just cut
Time for Rupert
for his 2l victory there at Newbury from 20/1 to 14/1!
Someone must have had a fiver on! Interpreted literallyThe Giant Bolster
actually came out the better horse,when this fellow gets round he’s pretty consistent so his 17l defeat in the Hennessy would suggest ‘Rupert’ would have finished just behind ‘Wymott’ in 6th and yet on todays performance in what can only be described as a bog,Victor sees him as a player for the Big one in March which will inevitably see ‘Rupert’ run off his feet! Talk about hoodwinkin the public! By the way Will Kennedy would have won on him today with both his hands tied together!
Excellent thread tb,i like number crunching,i said the official handicapper would raise
Medermit
5lb for his efforts and he’s given him 6lb,fair enough.Having read the blog you posted above it would appear its not the same handicapper that has raised
Brampour
a whacking 9lb to 168 for being beaten comfortably by
Granduet
who he’s only raised 2lb to 166,he is in effect stating Brampour is the better of the 2!
Not on your nelly he is,Grandouet will beat him every time and has way more scope.Brampour reminds me of a horse calledRigmarole
,he too was trained by P,Nicholls and was a top class handicapper who bordered on Grade 1 class but never was,he did once beat the mighty Rooster Booster in a Bula but that was him!Brampour is much the same but wont be winning any champion hurdles either.
Overturn
is not a Cheltenham horse but would eat Brampour around anywhere else.Incidently it will be interesting to see how
Via Galilei
gets on against Brampour at Ascot again at the revised weights.I believe Brampour is a genuine 160 hurdler and for a 4yo a good one,by the time he’s a 6yo i reckon he will be nearer a 150 horse not a 170,just my opinion.
Catterick 1.50
1pt win
Dystonia’s Revenge
12/1 general
1st
Rather fortuitous it must be said but I’ve had enough of my share of ‘bad luck’ on recent bets! Didn’t see what happened with the fallers as just caught a glimpse of them coming away from the fence so hope all are ok!Well done tb,who cares if your fortune is someonelses misfortune,its swings and roundabouts at the end of the day!
Having just got back from my ‘Councilling’Session at Gamblers anonymous,i was told that i’m showing too much loyalty to my horses and they are leading me over the cliff,having never visited Beachy Head i thought what a load of Boll*ks and have gone in again on
Somersby
for the King George!
Having finally got round to watching the ‘Peterborough’ from the comfort of my armchair it has to be said Somersby is a beauty,at times he absolutely floats over the fences but its his finish that bothers me,i mean he never actually got the chance to finish at Huntingdon,that ride was P*ss Poor no matter how you look at it,i liked his style around Kemptons 21/2m and i liked the way he was closing down Master Minded at Ascot last year,he has the form in the book to run a big race in this years King George and if AP McCoy was going spare i would grab him,some doubt Somersby will get the 3m,i’m not one of them.Henrietta being as sly as a fox knows how to get one ready on a racecourse without letting the Chickens loose……Edredon Bleu
had never ran over 3 miles before he won,guess what?…The King George at 25/1!
Somersby
£150 e/w 14/1 Bet365 King George.
£8100Gord is still my favorite but I have been eyeing Medermit lately
Daniel,i’m no horse!
Get onMedermit
for the Ryanair with the Tote at 20/1,it wont last much longer mate!
KF do you mean exonerate rather than vilify?
Thank You Dalling,i do indeed!
That bloody ‘Vilify’ word was bothering me but i just couldn’t think of another!And here was me thinking you were going to reprimand me for ‘My Gentlemans Club’ getting jiggy with it! Thanks again!x
I see the ‘talkin’ horse runs tomorrow at Newbury in what should be a procession,if
Time for Rupert
is fit and well he should win by 10 lengths in a canter. I wouldn’t lay him at 1/2 as he ‘Was’ different class to his 3 opponents.However i would be more than happy to see him fail to shine yet again just to prove his lack -lustre attempts of late are down to the horse,not the jockey who has ridden him in every race he’s contested,he could win this half fit but we know he’s a lot fitter than that so if he doesn’t win this pulling a cart then he’s still not right and that will vilify Will Kennedy of any wrong doing!
From what i’ve seen of him recently,he’ll race prominantly to start with,make a mistake and drop back,make another and drop back even further then plod on at the one pace and yet i still fancy him! 
Bearing in mind Grandouet has beaten brampour 4 lengths at levels,he is now getting a 9lb pull for actually doing so! Work that one out then! ‘How can that be right and fair’ as you put it.Grandouets beaten Brampour and in this scenario He’s getting all the favours to do it again! 
