The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Brampour rated 168

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 66 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #20496
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    I noticed Graham Cunningham tweeting this morning about some of the handicappers revisions after the weekend.

    The handicappers reasoning can be found on this blog on the bha website.

    http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp

    Personally I can’t side with the logic what so ever. I just don’t think Brampour was good enough and even if Ruby had been on board the result wouldn’t have been any different.

    At a quick scout of the BHA ratings this now has Brampour as the second highest hurdler in the UK (ignoring Peddlers Cross) with only Big Bucks rated higher.

    What are peoples thoughts on this? Any idea how Timeform rated it?

    #382624
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    The reasoning process is not quite as logical as this;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4 … re=related

    #382627
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    Excellent thread tb,i like number crunching,i said the official handicapper would raise

    Medermit

    5lb for his efforts and he’s given him 6lb,fair enough.Having read the blog you posted above it would appear its not the same handicapper that has raised

    Brampour

    a whacking 9lb to 168 for being beaten comfortably by

    Granduet

    who he’s only raised 2lb to 166,he is in effect stating Brampour is the better of the 2! :shock: Not on your nelly he is,Grandouet will beat him every time and has way more scope.Brampour reminds me of a horse called

    Rigmarole

    ,he too was trained by P,Nicholls and was a top class handicapper who bordered on Grade 1 class but never was,he did once beat the mighty Rooster Booster in a Bula but that was him!Brampour is much the same but wont be winning any champion hurdles either.

    Overturn

    is not a Cheltenham horse but would eat Brampour around anywhere else.Incidently it will be interesting to see how

    Via Galilei

    gets on against Brampour at Ascot again at the revised weights.I believe Brampour is a genuine 160 hurdler and for a 4yo a good one,by the time he’s a 6yo i reckon he will be nearer a 150 horse not a 170,just my opinion.

    #382660
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Agree with you Gord Grandouet would beat Brampour should they meet again who ever the pilot. To equate for Derhams’ claim is ridiculous, he can’t claim in those races and unless a rule change won’t ever be able to so it’s an irrelevant factor in my opinion. Let’s hope they don’t start handicapping on jockey skill and good/bad rides! By golly.

    #382692
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Who is the best horse, Grandouet or Brampour? In my opinion it is Grandouet, as I believe he has more improvement in him than Brampour. ie Grandouet will prove the better horse in the future.

    However, it can be argued at the moment Brampour has the better "form" and until proven otherwise deserves to be rated higher.

    Gord / tb,
    You say Derham’s allowance that he was not allowed to claim should not be taken in to account. What if the two did not meet in the International, what if they met in a handicap and Brampour was set to give Grandouet 7 lbs. With Derham’s 7 lb claim bringing the weights level? (Exactly the same conditions as on Saturday). Where Grandouet beats Brampour by 4 lengths and a neck.

    The 7 lb allowance should be taken in to account.

    Value Is Everything
    #382701
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6965

    The reasoning process is not quite as logical as this;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4 … re=related

    :lol:

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #382704
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Anyone who thinks Brampour a better horse than Grandouet (or even only 4l worse) certainly viewed the race differently to me on Saturday.
    Interesting dilemma for Paul Nicholls though, he’s said Brampour’s unlikely to run in the Ladbroke, though he would (ostensibly) be 9lb well in, have the best recent form in the race, his jockey able to claim the 7lb he couldn’t on Saturday, and be keeping upwards of 11lb off stablemate and warm favourite, Prospect Wells.

    #382707
    jose1993
    Member
    • Total Posts 1228

    Gord / tb,
    You say Derham’s allowance that he was not allowed to claim should not be taken in to account. What if the two did not meet in the International, what if they met in a handicap and Brampour was set to give Grandouet 7 lbs. With Derham’s 7 lb claim bringing the weights level? (Exactly the same conditions as on Saturday). Where Grandouet beats Brampour by 4 lengths and a neck.

    The 7 lb allowance should be taken in to account.

    Ginger, who was the best horse in the Derby this year according to this new found mathematical (twisted) logic? As per Dickinson’s thought process, think carefully about your answer.

    #382712
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    The argument that Derham’s claim somehow made a difference, implies that the connexions of the horse forgot that he was not able to claim his allowance. Perhaps they got to the track, looked at the racecard and then it dawned upon them.

    #382727
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    Gord / tb,
    You say Derham’s allowance that he was not allowed to claim should not be taken in to account. What if the two did not meet in the International, what if they met in a handicap and Brampour was set to give Grandouet 7 lbs. With Derham’s 7 lb claim bringing the weights level? (Exactly the same conditions as on Saturday). Where Grandouet beats Brampour by 4 lengths and a neck.

    The 7 lb allowance should be taken in to account.

    Ginge thats pure hypothesis (How about that for a word Eclipse eh? :wink: ) The fact is

    Brampour

    was rated 159 before the race and 168 after it,he’s been beaten by a better horse who was rated 164 before the race and 166 after it.I cant recall a runner-up going 9lb and the worthy winner only 2lb ever.What the handicapper is doing is assessing the jockey Harry Derham and not the horse here but the 7lb claim is totally irrelevant as it wasn’t allowed to be claimed so the handicapper is actually penalising Harry by saying you rode 7lb inferior to a Professional with no claim,anyone who has watched Harry ride Brampour will know this lad couldn’t have ridden any better the last 3 times he’s rode the horse,superb effort at both Cheltenham and Ascot prior to last weekends effort.
    Should Brampour meet Grandouet in a handicap he will have to give his victor 2lb from now on and if Ruby rides him what chance has he got of reversing saturdays form where he was beaten a comfortable 4 lengths at levels? :roll: No chance!If last Saturdays race was a handicap and Grandouet had carried e,g 11-5 then Brampour would have carried 11-0 had Harry been allowed to claim his allowance of 7lb he would surely have won with 10-7,thats a total of 12lb,now for the benefit of handicapping purposes the claim is insignificant because it wasn’t involved in the outcome of the race and its the horse thats being assessed not the jockey so the result would have been a virtual dead heat therefore you would re-assess both horses with a 3lb rise culminating in Grandouet going up from 164 to 167 and Brampour going up from 159 to 162 that equates to Grandouet still being the better horse,had Harry been allowed to claim his 7lbs all you would do is add the figure to his winning distance because he would have won in receipt of 12lb and deduct it again from the horses total mark which equates to the same figure.Basically the claim is in significant in assessment its the horses official mark that figures are worked from.Anyway Brampour reminds me of the stables

    Rigmarole

    a very good horse who beat Rooster Booster in a Bula but was never more than a very good handicapper not a Champion hurdler.We’ll see, but how anyone particularly a professional handicapper can say Brampour is better than Grandouet beggars belief!

    #382729
    grey dolphin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 653

    He’s effectively penalising Brampour’s connections for having been loyal to Harry Derham. A nonsense of handicapping.

    #382730
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    I think fantasy or hogwash might easily have sufficed KF. :)

    #382731
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    I’m not finished yet either! :roll:

    Overturn

    is a reliable yardstick,his form through Binocular alone puts him up in the high 160’s and he ran a good 5lb below his best on Saturday,probably because Cheltenham just doesn’t suit,particularly on winter ground,now if we give him the benefit of the doubt he would have defineately finshed alongside Grandouet as we have to consider the 4lb he was giving him,that would suggest to me he would have finished at least 5 lengths in front of Brampour,on a flat track he would eat Brampour and yet the handicapper marks him down to 166 from 168! :shock: Again in a handicap Brampour will give Overturn 2lb,unbelievable assessment imo when you consider they finish alongside,Overturn not running to his best and Brampour running right up to his mark again but Overturn was giving him 4lb,so at levels he would have beaten him running below his best,i think the handicapper has made a massive mistake here and i wouldn’t be a happy owner if he was mine!

    #382734
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Interesting dilemma for Paul Nicholls though, he’s said Brampour’s unlikely to run in the Ladbroke, though he would (ostensibly) be 9lb well in, have the best recent form in the race, his jockey able to claim the 7lb he couldn’t on Saturday, and be keeping upwards of 11lb off stablemate and warm favourite, Prospect Wells.

    Brampour runs, and with Harry Denham claiming 7.
    Make of that what you will. :)

    #382739
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    Interesting dilemma for Paul Nicholls though, he’s said Brampour’s unlikely to run in the Ladbroke, though he would (ostensibly) be 9lb well in, have the best recent form in the race, his jockey able to claim the 7lb he couldn’t on Saturday, and be keeping upwards of 11lb off stablemate and warm favourite, Prospect Wells.

    Brampour runs, and with Harry Denham claiming 7.
    Make of that what you will. :)

    I think he realises the handicapper has been harsh and is basically either going to make hay whilst he can or if

    Via Galilei

    beats him prove that he has been over-rated. If he wins comfortably i’ll be surprised even allowing for the fact he’s actually 16lb well in! If he was to run off 168 without a claimer he’d have No chance.If he does win he wont be re-assessed for sure.

    #382742
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I’d suggest he’s running because there’s good prize money down to 6th place, and he’s a fair chance of garnering at least some of it.
    That it puts 3 out of the handicap, and allows Ruby to ride the fav without too much lead in the saddle, probably crossed his mind, too.

    #382745
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Gord,
    The handicapper rates Brampour 168 and Grandouet 166. If you were the Handicapper, how would you rate them on the International run?

    I don’t mean: Who will eventually prove the best horse? Or anything like that. I think we agree on that one.

    I take it you’d have Grandouet 166 and Brampour 161 (not allowing anything for Harry’s claim)?

    If that is the case, then say the two horses meet in a handicap under exactly the same conditions, same distance, going, track,

    SAME JOCKEYS

    etc.

    Brampour would be able to race off a mark

    12 lbs less

    than Grandouet (166 – 161 = 5 + 7 lb claim = 12), for a beating of only

    4 lengths and a neck

    !

    How can that be right and fair?

    For

    handicapping purposes

    , the official handicapper had little choice but to work the race out as he did.

    Admittedly if

    I

    were doing a

    private handicap

    , it is my belief Harry Derham is well worth his claim. For every horse Harry rides with his 7 lbs claim, I add 3 lbs (on average) to its rating / chance. (For Brampour, who Harry gets on particularly well with, it could be 4 lbs). For every horse he rides without his 7 lbs claim, I’d have to take off 4 lbs (3 for Brampour) from his rating / chance.

    Value Is Everything
Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 66 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.