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Gord,
The handicapper rates Brampour 168 and Grandouet 166. If you were the Handicapper, how would you rate them on the International run?I don’t mean: Who will eventually prove the best horse? Or anything like that. I think we agree on that one.
I take it you’d have Grandouet 166 and Brampour 161 (not allowing anything for Harry’s claim)?
If that is the case, then say the two horses meet in a handicap under exactly the same conditions, same distance, going, track,
SAME JOCKEYS
etc.
Brampour would be able to race off a mark
12 lbs less
than Grandouet (166 – 161 = 5 + 7 lb claim = 12), for a beating of only
4 lengths and a neck
!
How can that be right and fair?
For
handicapping purposes
, the official handicapper had little choice but to work the race out as he did.
Admittedly if
I
were doing a
private handicap
, it is my belief Harry Derham is well worth his claim. For every horse Harry rides with his 7 lbs claim, I add 3 lbs (on average) to its rating / chance. (For Brampour, who Harry gets on particularly well with, it could be 4 lbs). For every horse he rides without his 7 lbs claim, I’d have to take off 4 lbs (3 for Brampour) from his rating / chance.
Ginge,i’ve read the above post several times now and i still cant get my head round how you cant see thats how it is!
Look at Saturdays ‘Ladbroke’Brampour
gets in on 159 when he’s now rated 168,he also gets the 7lb claim off his back so in effect he’s 16lb well in! How can that be right and fair?
Why do you keep going on about the 7lb claim when it actually had no effect whatsoever in Saturdays race,unless of course you think the jockey under achieved by 7lb,i dont think so!
Think about this one Ginge,
Grandouet
rated 166 against
Brampour
now rated 168 in a handicap over 2 miles,this time however Grandouet gets a 7lb claimer on his back perhaps Harry himself!
Bearing in mind Grandouet has beaten brampour 4 lengths at levels,he is now getting a 9lb pull for actually doing so! Work that one out then! ‘How can that be right and fair’ as you put it.Grandouets beaten Brampour and in this scenario He’s getting all the favours to do it again! He’s effectively penalising Brampour’s connections for having been loyal to Harry Derham. A nonsense of handicapping.
In a nutshell
Gord / tb,
You say Derham’s allowance that he was not allowed to claim should not be taken in to account. What if the two did not meet in the International, what if they met in a handicap and Brampour was set to give Grandouet 7 lbs. With Derham’s 7 lb claim bringing the weights level? (Exactly the same conditions as on Saturday). Where Grandouet beats Brampour by 4 lengths and a neck.The 7 lb allowance should be taken in to account.
Ginger, who was the best horse in the Derby this year according to this new found mathematical (twisted) logic? As per Dickinson’s thought process, think carefully about your answer.
Memphis Tennessee
is the answer Jose and that is a fine analogy Sir!
I noticed Graham Cunningham tweeting this morning about some of the handicappers revisions after the weekend.
The handicappers reasoning can be found on this blog on the bha website.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp
Personally I can’t side with the logic what so ever. I just don’t think Brampour was good enough and even if Ruby had been on board the result wouldn’t have been any different.
At a quick scout of the BHA ratings this now has Brampour as the second highest hurdler in the UK (ignoring Peddlers Cross) with only Big Bucks rated higher.
What are peoples thoughts on this? Any idea how Timeform rated it?
The handicappers make me laugh. I’ve seen horses not dropped in the weights after failing to complete two or three times in succession, with the reason given that they were travelling well at the time and could have won. I’m talking about the second or third last at Cheltenham. How many times have we seen horses fade after the second last at Cheltenham ? Take a few pounds off. If it wins, put it back up.
Also, last season or one before i watched a plater win it’s first race in maybe twenty attempts. It won a shocking race by a mile and the handicapper put it up nearly two stone. Seriously – what the **** is that about ?
And then there’s Crozan being rated three pounds lower than Monkerhostin in the National weights.
The handicapper is an ***, under the thumb of the bookmakers. I’ll never forgive Smith for his comments at Cheltenham where he said his ideal finish would see a 50-1 shot just edge out the favourite – tells you all you need to know about what influences him most.
The handicappers remind me of the oil companies. Very quick and full of excuses to put things up, incredibly reluctant to drop them.
*EDIT*
Also, he names a couple of examples as proof enough why people are wrong to criticise their handling of placed horses. Given a day or two, i could list hundreds of examples of horses that have been harshly treated.
The Handicapper’s job is hardly an enviable one. He either assumes every trainer runs every horse on its merits, or that they are all "at it". If, in erring towards caution, decides upon the latter, the honest are punished, otherwise it can be argued it pays to be economical with the truth.
It looks like a poisoned chalice to me.Memphis Tennessee
is the answer Jose and that is a fine analogy Sir!
Correct Kingfisher.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/gorac … tem=004520
Guess what? Not one mention of Joseph O’Brien’s then 3lb claim.
I know Ginger likes to argue the contrary viewpoint, and admittedly he does a better than fair job, but this has been plucked from the stars.
David Johnson has posted the question about Sam Waley-Cohen’s 5lbs on the Racing Post blog. Is Long Run now a 187 horse?
Ginge,i’ve read the above post several times now and i still cant get my head round how you cant see thats how it is!
Look at Saturdays ‘Ladbroke’Brampour
gets in on 159 when he’s now rated 168,he also gets the 7lb claim off his back
so in effect he’s 16lb well in!
How can that be right and fair?
Why do you keep going on about the 7lb claim when it actually had no effect whatsoever in Saturdays race,unless of course you think the jockey under achieved by 7lb,i dont think so!
No, Brampour is not "16 lbs well in" on Saturday.
Brampour is rated 168 for his performance at Cheltenham.
So in future handicaps Brampour will be rated
168
. The Performance (for carrying 11-4 against Grandouet (166) also carrying 11-4 who beat him just over 4 lengths) is rated 161. Then Harry’s non-claim of 7 lbs is added to make the rating Brampour ran to 168 for future handicaps. ie If a normal jockey rides he’ll run off a mark of 168.
So in future handicaps,
if Harry
(the same jockey as at Cheltenham) rides with his 7 lbs claim, it can bring the mark down to
161
(168 – 7 = 161).
In the handicap on Saturday Brampour is rated 159.
If Harry rides that brings the mark down to 152.You’ve either got to compare the handicap marks of what it would be with an established jockey in both future handicaps and Saturday’s race…
or…
The difference between Harry riding in future handicaps and Harry riding in the Ladbroke.
In both cases Brampour is
9 lbs
168 – 159 = 9 lbs and 161 – 152 = 9.
Brampour is 9 lbs well in on Saturday, not 16 lbs.
Value Is EverythingSo why isn’t Brampour fav for this? He’s well-in , the trainer is in form, he has a good jockey. Surely 11-1 e/w is ok.
Nicholls commented on the owner’s loyalty to Derham in last week’s betfair blog –
"All credit to the owners for staying loyal to Harry and they obviously take the view that his knowledge of the horse is worth 7lb. I personally am not so sure,"
Running one off top weight to manipulate the weight(s) of his more fancied runners is a standard Nicholls tactic. And who can blame him – I’d do it were I in his position.
In the good old days when the Ladbroke was run at Leopardstown, there would be at least half a dozen horses laid out for the race. Horses whose handicap marks were filed in the fiction section of the library. Brampour is only well in if you take the literal view of the handicapper as gospel. Via Galilei has a 7lb pull for half a length on their October form over course and distance, so there’s a doubt whether he would confirm that form. He’s never run on anything like the expected going if the meeting survives. The handicapper has ruined his mark for future handicaps, most of which do not carry as good a purse.
He’s entered, he must have come out of the race well unless he is going to be declared a non-runner on the day in which case Mr Nicholls deserves a liberal dose of the cattle prod in his nether regions. He has a sporting chance of being in the money but he is thoroughly exposed. I would say he is far from being "a good thing".
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He’s entered, he must have come out of the race well unless he is going to be declared a non-runner on the day in which case Mr Nicholls deserves a liberal dose of the cattle prod in his nether regions. He has a sporting chance of being in the money but he is thoroughly exposed. I would say he is far from being "a good thing".
Doubt he’d try that EF, as the weights would rise anyway – a rule they introduced sfter he did it in the County Hurdle, with Sporazene.
Imo, Brampour runs as connections have little to lose, he’ll be worse off in future handicaps, probably isn’t good enough for stakes races, and has a chance of picking up prize money if he runs to his previous form. Hardly the sort of prep you’d expect for Ladbroke winner though – a fully fit horse having a hard race on disadvantageous terms just a week before the target proper.Nicholls commented on the owner’s loyalty to Derham in last week’s betfair blog –
"All credit to the owners for staying loyal to Harry and they obviously take the view that his knowledge of the horse is worth 7lb. I personally am not so sure,"
Running one off top weight to manipulate the weight(s) of his more fancied runners is a standard Nicholls tactic. And who can blame him – I’d do it were I in his position.
What was wrong with Woolcombe Folly when he came out last week?
As you say Corm, Nicholls has a history of using top weights with claimers on board, for the benifit of the first or even second string/s. However, all those top weights were on the downgrade at the time. Brampour is still on the up and too good to use in that way. On the figures he has a real chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingHe didn’t have the cheekpieces fitted when he went down to the start as declared (I think that was the piece of tack). They fitted them at the start but it was deemed he wasn’t allowed to run. Perhaps Mr Nicholls has found a new ruse to make a mockery of Grade 3 handicaps.
So why isn’t Brampour fav for this? He’s well-in , the trainer is in form, he has a good jockey. Surely 11-1 e/w is ok.
I wouldn’t say Brampour should be favourite Kasparov, but certainly value. I’ve just taken the 11/1. With a horse who’s run only a week before, there’s a chance he won’t have recovered. So personally, I think he’s more a win only than each way bet.
Value Is EverythingHe’s effectively penalising Brampour’s connections for having been loyal to Harry Derham. A nonsense of handicapping.
Echo this gentleman’s sentiments.
Bearing in mind Grandouet has beaten brampour 4 lengths at levels,he is now getting a 9lb pull for actually doing so! Work that one out then! ‘How can that be right and fair’ as you put it.Grandouets beaten Brampour and in this scenario He’s getting all the favours to do it again! 
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