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I’d be careful with Saturnas. He’s stepping up in trip for his next run and his connections have said they’re aiming for a The Neptune. That of course could easily change if Willie decides he’s a Supreme horse.
Just seen this – you are right. Entered Neptune and Albert Bartlett. I have NRNB on Saturnas fortunately.
My impression from watching Saturnas was that he’d improve for the step up in trip from the minimum, would interest me if confirmed for the Neptune think its the right race for him and he’s been underestimated so far as he’s been passed over by Ruby twice and seemingly second string. Could also just be the Irish novices this season ain’t up to previous years standards though feels like we could have big price winner of all three novice hurdles.
Interesting posts Zark. I actually agree that 4/1 is a miserable price for a once raced maiden winner. The price is based on potential and who trains it.
Very interesting and informative posts tho
Thing you have to ask yourself with Melon though is how many schooling races has he run in and won? Rumours say he pissed up in one at Thurles. An average Mullins stable schooling race is probably way more competitive and educational than your typical Irish maiden with two or three triers and 18 out the back hacking around to get a mark. The way Mullins operates nowadays is so different as to make the record books somewhat meaningless. Still don’t disagree that 4/1 is rotten and if you’re not already on much better waiting until the day, you’ll definitely get bigger on the day and no doubt people like Paddy’s/Lads etc will be doing crazy money back offers to try and hook in the once a year punters on the very first race putting money in their PP accounts and not anyone else’s. Probably do money back if Melon wins as well if you fancy taking him on.
Not to crab Ian, but very surprised you’re all reacting like this…was pretty obvious he was going for the Ultima or 4 miler after his defeat at Warwick.
No problems, you’re right its not the most difficult spot in the world and I could also be adding up 2 + 2 and coming up with 5, could be way off and he runs in the 4miler. Unless you’re on the inside of these things you’re never 100% for sure.
Just so many things lined up though even before the race to alert you, the strange drop in trip after looking one paced lto if they were thinking 4miler very odd, the fact that its the same race as UTPT, knowing the trainers MO he already had a good mark and wasn’t looking anywhere near RSA grade and then the run itself was, well eyecatching to say the least, strangely though was supported in the market though didn’t drift like a barge at all. If he does get a drop at all think Pipe will find it hard to not run him off whats likely to be a very generous mark. Does seem to show alot of his best form on softer ground though so wouldn’t want it rattling quick, but thats the gamble of AP. Full disclosure I’m also on Mall Dini for this race too, he’s a long term fav of mine and did me a great turn last year, another one they’ve just been messing about with all year running a pertemps winner over 2m lto who do you think you’re kidding
Fully expecting Phil Smtih to clobber Mall Dini with a totally unfair mark though but backed on the off chance he doesn’t.Was allotted 153 on Saturday, no way I can see that he fools Phil Smith into an 8lb drop for schooling in a cross country, particularly as he seems to have a vendetta against Gord for having it away in the handicaps at the fest for the last few years and with this horse in particular blowing apart the KM last year.
One I like for it is Champers on ice, following the same pattern as UTPT last year running him over too short a trip on Saturday was given a very ‘educational’ ride dropped right out of contention and only put into the race after the winner crossed the line finishing like a steam train from last to sixth up the hill. Was on 143 before that race, drop of a few pounds would see him carry a lovely racing weight in the Ultima, money has started to come this morning.
I help put together a racing newsletter where John Hales is regular columnist, he owns Captain Forez, here’s what he said about him this month:
“We saw Captain Forez in the novice hurdle and Politologue in the novice chase. The Captain, who is only a four year old, is a very big horse (currently 17.2 hands) I thought he gave a superb performance in finishing second. We must take our time with him and let him mature. If we are lucky I am convinced you will see a magnificent chaser in two years’ time. It is possible he will stay hurdling next season and then go novice chasing when he is six. He may only have two more races this season which we will use for him to gain experience.”
Hope that helps a bit, he never commits horses too early preferring to take his trainers advice but he definitely has high hopes for him and chasing gonna be his thing.
Fully expecting Phil Smtih to clobber Mall Dini with a totally unfair mark though but backed on the off chance he doesn’t.