[greenasgrass]

Yeah I really liked the look of him last year. Didn’t enjoy seeing his run at Cheltenham this year- I thought with better ground than last year he might bounce back to form but he ran a shocker- jumped badly, didn’t travel a yard and looked like he was hating every minute of it. I didn’t see much of him in the Topham as he was buried an undistinguished midfield but the spruce fences didn’t seem to make him think Wow! Yeah! I love racing again! I hope there is nothing physically wrong with him and that he bounces back next season if not this week.

[greenasgrass]

Yes Cloudy Dream finished with a flourish didn’t he? He was the one I enjoyed watching the most on Saturday even though I had nothing on the race. Lovely horse and a nice prospect for next season.

[greenasgrass]

I think Sizing John will more or less hack up but beyond that have no clue how the rest of the race is going to pan out. I agree with rocky that Coneygree might be a no show – rain is forecast but there are going to be northerlies all week so it may all dump on Donegal before it gets a chance to reach Punchestown.

I don’t think I’ll be betting much this week- with the prospect of some horses that looked good all winter suddenly looking average on late spring ground, others whose seasons have finally taken the edge off them mentally or physically, possibly some who have picked up tiny niggles that aren’t even showing up on the gallops at home, and the big 2 trainers presumably firing in all the nags they have that still have 4 legs attached, my chances of picking winners this week are slim!

But as it’s the last week of jumps proper, I’ll have some sod-it-anyway bets for fun so I have picked (don’t laugh…ah OK go ahead and have a giggle) Irish Cavalier 33-1 and Flemenstar 50-1 (didn’t bother opening new accounts for better prices). Both E/W to 3 places (thanks for the headsup on Zabana this morning rocky).

I appreciate that on current form, for either of them to place all the others will have to no show or trip over, and even then it’s not a given that they will a) start and b) finish

Good luck with your proper bets everyone

[greenasgrass]

Have placed my bets for this:
Theatre Guide 40-1
Pendra 20-1
for the reasons you state above
and, rather unimaginatively and for the same reasons that I backed Saint Are and Alvarado E/W at Aintree and Ayr ie solid place history in the race:
Just a Par 20-1
All bets E/W 1/4 odds

[greenasgrass]

Well done RacingOrchid and anyone else who had the winner.
Was Nico d B OK? We had visitors over so I had to stop watching after the race.

[greenasgrass]

You lot pick good ones so on reading this I put a wee treble on Crimean Tatar, Queen Kindly and Dream Castle.

[greenasgrass]

Good luck with him Dynamite.
In addition to my Scottish National picks, on the Ayr card I’ve backed
15.20 Vaniteux 13-2 win
as ground, track and trip should suit.

[greenasgrass]

A bit late to the party:
13.55 New Crimean Tatar
15.05 New Dream CastleNAP
15.20 Ayr Vaniteux
Res 17.40 Ayr Flashing Glance

[greenasgrass]

Heeding judge’s thoughts on the Greenham thread, I’ve added Dream Castle 20-1 E/W

[greenasgrass]

Added with Paddy’s 6 places 1/5 odds
Kruzhlinin 25-1
Blakemount 50-1
to go with earlier bets (fewer places) on
Fine Rightly (prob too much weight now)
Straidnahanna
Alvarado
All bets E/W
Should probably have waited for 6 places for them all, but impatience, greed (for better odds) and fear (of odds shortening) got the better of me.

[greenasgrass]

Cogry works hard for a living…

[greenasgrass]

Added Alvarado 33-1 E/W; he has had an unspectacular season but was 2nd in this last year and 4th in the G.N. the two years before that, so solid form for one good spring run per year. There are 4 horses above him who have, or will have, run in the past week so I think he’ll get in.
He has an entry in the bet365 but I think he will go here.

[greenasgrass]

Good plan, I don’t think you can go too far wrong with Sue Smith’s horses and I’ve followed you with a small win bet on Blakemount at the 50s.

I really like Vintage Clouds too and think he will probably go here rather than the Novice’s handicap for which he is also entered. He seems quite handily weighted for both but expect will go for the bigger race given his owner’s desire to win Nationals and the fact that he has run very respectably in open company this season. My only concern would be that he’s probably had some pretty hard races as a result; his fall in the Ultima looked a bit tired rather than clumsy to me. I suppose if he’s as tough as his sire’s most famous offspring he’ll still give it socks; and perhaps the pace of the longer race (the 3 mile novice looks hot enough) will mean he doesn’t run the legs off himself.

[greenasgrass]

Vyta du Roc not among 5 day decs – would have thought he had a decent chance and I was looking to back him for this but being kept fresh for Sandown I suppose.

I’ve added Straidnahanna 50-1 E/W; not sure he has the class to win but should jump and stay long enough to give me a run for my money.

[greenasgrass]

Thanks to a timely reminder from BigG about backing horses that may run well in the Irish National today and see their odds dive, I’ve put some on Haymount for 2018.

[greenasgrass]

I’ve added Foxrock E/W at 20s too so that’s him and Haymount for me. Good luck in running all.

[greenasgrass]

Ah well a longshot is a longshot for a reason

Clontarf didn’t jump particularly well and just outclassed today I think. Back to the drawing board.

Well done to anyone who had winners today.

[Author]

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