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I’ve got Fair Eva at 20/1 and I feel she has a good chance of winning this.
She ran four times on fast ground last year and the Lowther run was always a bit silly in my opinion, asking her to take on 5F sprinters at York on firmish ground, after the jockey had warned she needed stepping up.
The Rockfel run was a bit disappointing, as she was second at odds of 4/9 Fav. That race hasn’t worked out great but I feel that, over the mile and being fresh now, she can build on a promising start to her career and mature into a good filly. Roger Charlton is pleased with her physical improvement over the winter and he is in good form, with a 32% strike rate over the last 14 days.
Daban is too short in my mind. With so many fillies running poorly in the trial, I am concerned whether Daban really improved 27 lbs to be rated 108 now. I have a squiggle and a question mark on that form.
Some of those still in the betting will not be running. Others don’t look up to it and I don’t think Queen Kindly will last home, she looked a sprinter all the way to me last season.
Rhododendron looks poor value to me at about 9/4 and no run under her belt.
I am pretty confident Fair Eva will go close and having been 14/1 in March, she is 7/1 now.
I have to agree about the favourite.
I am going with Intricately @ 20/1
I liked the look of Poets vanity too but have left her alone.
Money has been coming for my filly all day.
Into 12/1 now
If Donnacha O’Brien rides Intricately like he did ‘Lancaster Bomber’ she too will finish 4th and cost me e/w money.I cant split ‘Hydrangea’,’Rhododendrun’ and Josephs filly they are closely matched on several pieces of form.What intrigues me is that ‘Hydrangea’ in particular looks like she’s been trained for this race but like the other 2 could easily win the Oaks and to my eye ‘Rhododendrun’ looks the better Oaks prospect.The filly I have backed for the Oaks however is ‘Promise to be True’,another with collateral form with these 3.At around 12/1 I still think the joseph O’Brien filly is the one for today though.’Winter’ in my opinion doesn’t have the form in the book to win a Guineas.Good luck Darren with your 20/1 on ‘Rhododendrun’,she could be special pal.
I haven’t added anything to my Queen Kindly 33-1 E/W though watching last year’s Rhododendron races she looks a lovely big filly and hard to beat. Good luck with all your selections today everyone.
20-1 on Rhododendron is v nice but she looks far too short to me now.
Coolmore fan Botchy mentioned on another thread how the ballydoyles are dominant and that’s true, but it would be nice for some other outfit to get a look in and win, it seems to me they have more of a chance on this race that looks fairly open.
Now i’ve said that O’Brien will probably train the first three home again
anyone else find their domianance rather boring? But I guess as a punter if it wins you money then why would you care.
Certainly this year I will be looking much more at these O’Brien two year olds in terms of having a long-term ante post given the success of graemes and botchy’s long term tips.
Yes; I’m finding it totally boring. I know Churchill was probably the best horse in the race yesterday but it didn’t look good having so many stablemates around him, which would, in now way, interfere with him winning. Haven’t looked at the 1,000 yet; usually look forward to both races but can’t summon up any enthusiasm these days.
Do you think Hydrangea and Winter will be used as domestiques for Rhododendron or will they all run their own races today?
If you have bet in a race you just want your horse to win, in any case with top level Flat racing the pots are never going to be shared out much beyond the big organisations.
I backed three ante-post and Rhododendron is the only one left. Sorry to anyone else who has backed her but I am on a run of one winner from the last twenty. I could pretty much stop anything at the moment. How often do the two hotpots go in? History shows that you cannot rely too much on the Coolmore fillies on seasonal debut so despite her apparent strength in the market it wouldn’t surprise at all if this one was more Victory Angel than Churchill.
Lacking in experience but I’m hoping for a big run from Talaayeb. Can’t have Queen Kindly [6f entries]. As usual have backed a few outsiders….
It’s a one horse race according to the betting. At this rate Rhododendron will be odds on by the off.
Daban and Fair Eva are both weak in the betting.
John Gosden reckons his filly has the coffin corner draw in stall one. As ever, my horse (Fair Eva) got a pretty crappy draw in box 3, while Rhododendron is in trap 9.
I read today that Roger Charlton is confident, yet earlier in the week he was reported as saying he would be happy if she was in the 1st Four home. Who do you believe these days?
Low draw aside, I think Fair Eva will like the ground and I think she will get the mile OK. 17/2 seems a decent each-way bet for those not on board already. Her Rockfel run was poor but Charlton seems to feel she was going through a growth spurt at that time.
Roger Charlton is 6/11 this past fortnight, for an incredible 54% strike rate and that has to be an encouraging sign.
All the best to those who took Rhododendron at big ante-post odds, I could not back her at the odds today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
anyone else find their domianance rather boring?
I find it an amazing success story to be honest. It’s been great to see them put a team together like they have. Obviously they hit the jackpot when Gallileo came along, but fair play to them with the amount they must of put in.
From Magnier to the stable lad’s it seems everyone plays a part in the operation and the trainer always praises the team, which is not what you would imagine the Arabs saying on camera.
It will be great to see how it pans out if others try to compete but i think Coolmore have a five year start on them as it stands.
I’m not convinced about Rhododendron but you can’t fault her impressive group 1 performance last year. I’m not against her but I am against the other AOB runners finishing behind her for this.
Last year Ballydoyle and Alice Springs filled the places with the first mentioned going into it off the back of group 1 victory in France. Alice Springs went into it after a tidy staying on performance on soft/heavy going over 7f in a group three having finished 2nd in a grade 1 prior to that.I think that Daban and Talaayeb could be the ones to look out for here. I’m trying to back up something I said at the start of the season that I believe John Gosden will have plenty of group 1 success this campaign and she quickened up smartly enough in the Nell Gwynn to seduce me. She didn’t have to be driven out much either with Frankie easing down just before the line.
Talaayeb is a riskier proposition as the fact is her maiden victory hasn’t amounted to much if anything at all to get excited about but watching the way she scooted past in the final furlong really impressed me. The step up looks sure to suit as well and she looks promising. I can’t say I’m confident in the yard but Owen Burrows is new to the training ranks and I know that he was one of the trainers who was hit hardest with the virus going round last year.
Anyway, this race is intriguing and I may have it all wrong but **** it, it’s the 1000 guineas.
Rhododendron/Daban/Talaayeb for me.
It might be an amazing success story but hardly seems like a massive underdog story. Sometimes it’s nice to see one of the little guys win.
I know what you are saying about them getting the team involved but it still seems to be quite stressful. Aiden looked stressed yesterday in an interview and that stablehand had a rather thuggish look about him so doesn’t strike me as a lovely atmosphere at Ballydoyle, but then who cares it’s a business, it’s all about winning.
The favourite looks very decent, good luck on him Darren, you’re red hot at
the moment mate
Not a big betting race for me, but I’m going to have a few on QUEEN KINDLY
at 33/1 4 places with PP. She had not a snowball’s chance last time out
courtesy of Mr Spencer and his antics at the start, but she looked decent
in the Lowther at York. There is a doubt about the trip, but she was running
on well enough over 7 last time out. She’s drawn well and Mr Mosse is no
handicap. Worth a small chance at the price with 4 places.Fair Eva is so weak it seems like a leg has dropped off.
Think Doyle needs to find some cover from that draw. If she is too keen she won’t get home and might drop out completely like skiffle in that last race.
Judging by the betting though the fav will win by five lengths
If you have bet in a race you just want your horse to win, in any case with top level Flat racing the pots are never going to be shared out much beyond the big organisations.
I backed three ante-post and Rhododendron is the only one left. Sorry to anyone else who has backed her but I am on a run of one winner from the last twenty. I could pretty much stop anything at the moment. How often do the two hotpots go in? History shows that you cannot rely too much on the Coolmore fillies on seasonal debut so despite her apparent strength in the market it wouldn’t surprise at all if this one was more Victory Angel than Churchill.
Should have gone very close to winning but very poor ride gave her no chance. Will probably bolt up in the Oaks now.
Not Ryan Moore’s finest hour . He made a pig’s ear of that . Rhododendron easily the best horse in the race but Ryan Moore , even allowing for all his experience and tactical nous , somehow contrived to get the horse beat .
Winter had a clear run and saw the mile out well but I cannot believe that Rhododendron would not have won with more enterprising ride .
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Not Ryan Moore’s finest hour . He made a pig’s ear of that . Rhododendron easily the best horse in the race but Ryan Moore , even allowing for all his experience and tactical nous , somehow contrived to get the horse beat .
Winter had a clear run and saw the mile out well but I cannot believe that Rhododendron would not have won with more enterprising ride .
It doesn’t take much experience and tactical nous to realise you are riding a definite stayer. It was almost as if he was waiting for the trouble to happen. Had he just sat a length off the lead it is hard to believe she wouldn’t have gone very close but it’s history now.
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