1000 Guineas 2017

Fair Eva.

The best Frankel baby so far by a street. I have 20/1. Currently best priced 14/1. Another impressive win and she’ll be pretty damn short.

I think she will be Frankel’s first classic winner, she really impressed me.

Fair Eva will win it atm, Chruchill is a certainty for the 2000

Fair Eva has been the only Frankel offspring so far that impressed me as being star potential.

Understandably there has been excitement about the great horse and how he will perform and it has been profitable to follow him so far with an excellent strike rate.

However, in this game you can’t let sentiment cloud your analysis and it’s not until we start seeing the little Frankels beating fellow winners that we will start to get an idea of how they will perform long term.

Cunco was disappointing but he was an early foal and a bit on the small side. The colt has temperament issues as well and John Gosden stated he was more likely a horse for this season. It’s a bit early to write them off long term but neither can we be confident they will all make the progress their father did.

I would have backed Fair Eva for the Guineas regardless of her sire. The way she picked up and flew past her field was so impressive. She moves like a class horse and is trained by a patient man. I felt I had just watched a filly who was already Group 3 class and the only other filly on my radar at the time was Cuff, who sadly fractured her knee at Royal Ascot and was retired. 20/1 was a fair price I felt, as I was convinced another win, in better company would see her odds halved.

There is time still for others to emerge but we are starting to reach the stage of the season where it gets unusually late for newcomers who would be 1000 Guineas sorts.

I would give Fair Eva three runs this year, maybe four at most, and then prepare her for the Guineas.

Regarding Churchill, he may be a top prospect but the form lines clearly give Boynton the edge by a way for the moment, as evinced by the runs of Cunco and Mr Scaramanga who raced against both colts.

I was a bit taken aback to see Isomer, who was second to Churchill, tipped up recently on ATR as if he was a dark horse running at Salisbury in a maiden. I would have thought his chance was obvious to the world and his wife and he duly went off 1/5F and won.

For now Caravaggio holds at least a 10 lb advantage in the colt’s division. I am hopeful Fair Eva can show she is top of the tree in the fillies camp on her next start.

Caravaggio is a monster but isn’t an 8 furlong horse. Churchill is far from finished but far superior to the rest at the moment. You will see another Gleneagles performance at Newmarket come come May. He will win the Guineas easily not a danger in sight.

Aidan feels Caravaggio may get a mile. The bigger concern for me was whether he will train on and my instinct said he may be precocious and another potential Air Force Blue. I gave it a lot of thought before turning down 25/1 Caravaggio for the 2000 Guineas. If I were a “back to lay” merchant I would have been all over him but I’m just a small time fun player.

It’s madness to think Churchill is home and hosed, too many things can happen between now and next may. Some stables have yet to show their hand.

By September Churchill may well be looking in a strong position but their are Irish races to be run and the Goodwood and York festivals to be seen, plus numerous races at the good tracks for maidens and progressing youngsters.

If I recall correctly, Gleneagles was bigger odds than Churchill is now after winning the Group 1 Lagardere on Arc weekend.

Churchill home and hosed? ROFL.

Churchill is going to the Tyros Stakes next, so it looks like he is going the Gleneagles route, which is a tip in itself.

Well, I can’t see Caravaggio running in the Tyros or the Futurity, and I can’t see Churchill running in the Phoenix, so I still have a notion that he’s taking the Gleneagles route and Caravaggio is going the AFB route, the crossover being the National Stakes, so it will be interesting to see who goes there