[Gerald]

Saturday 6 Jan 2007

Lingfield
3yo Mdn 1m2f

RESULT
7-0-18-1-0 (26) DI=1.60 CD=0.50 Salford Mill 2/7 fav
3-5-8-4-2 (22) DI=1.20 CD=0.14 Jocheski 5/1
7-1-15-5-2 (30) DI = 1.07 CD=0.20 Six Day War 11/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]
1-8-14-7-2 (32) DI =1.00 CD= -0.03 Stand In Black 66/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]
2-2-8-2-2 (16) DI=1.00 CD=0.00 Shea’s Round 33/1
8-0-6-0-2 (16) DI=2.20 CD=0.75 Bluecrop Boy 50/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]
3-0-4-1-2 (10) DI=1.00 CD=0.10 Northern Dune 25/1
5-0-9-0-0 (14) DI=2.11 CD=0.71 Binham Boy 66/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]

First favourite beat second favourite, beat third favourite.

All of Stand In Black’s "good numbers" didn’t help him to place, but at least he beat the rest.

We’re in need of a race where an outsider got among the money.

If there was a race in 2006, I’ll look at that, and then go to bed.[/color:3253tznu]

[Gerald]

3yo 1m2f Mdn

5 Jan 2008 Lingfield

Last year’s result

3-3-19-2-1 (28 ) DI=1.24 CD=0.18 Pacifism 4/1 fav
4-4-12-6-0 (26) DI=1.17 CD=0.23 Electrolyser 8/1 Debut[/color:1ffpuakh]
5-0-7-2-0 (14) DI=1.55 CD=0.57 Always Bold 7/1 Debut[/color:1ffpuakh]
5-2-3-0-0 (10) DI=5.67 CD=1.20 Flash Of Colour 13/2
6-0-10-0-0 (16) DI=2.20 CD=0.75 Mischief Making 20/1
6-0-16-6-0 (28 ) DI=1.00 CD=0.21 Unlicensed 5/1
6-0-10-4-2 (22) DI=1.00 CD=0.18 Ski Sunday 16/1
7-1-6-0-0 (14) DI=3.67 CD=1.07 I Certainly May 25/1
4-5-15-5-1 (30) DI=1.22 CD=0.20 Sacrilege 9/2
2-2-4-0-0 (8 ) DI=3.00 CD=0.75 Ollie Fliptrick 16/1 Debut[/color:1ffpuakh]

The favourite won, and he had the joint-second most points, and the most points in the middle, Classic, category. This also led to him having the lowest CD as well

Okay, I happier with the selection of Lord Chancellor, Tropical Duke and Spirit Of The Glen now.

But let us look at the 2007 result now.

[/color:1ffpuakh]

[Gerald]

I think that I’ve read that a DI higher than 4 is a sprinter.

RESULT
8-1-5-0-0 (14) DI=4.60 CD=1.21 Romantic Queen 9/2
2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI=0.71 CD=0.00 Minotaurious 5/4 fav First run on AW[/color:s30dwgow]
3-2-10-1-2 (18 ) DI=1.25 CD=0.17 Gurteen Diamond 12/1
2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI=2.43 CD=0.58 Giant Strides 40/1
3-0-7-0-0 (10) DI=1.86 CD=0.60 My Best Man 5/1
11-7-16-0-0 (34) DI=3.25 CD=0.85 Keep Icy Calm 11/2
3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI=3.00 CD=0.69 Jhinga Palak 22/1
3-1-11-1-0 (16) DI=1.46 CD=0.38 Swiss Lake Sweetie 14/1

Okay, the out-and-out sprinter, with the highest DI, and the highest CD won. Our first swallow has arrived. A pity we picked the winner 4 hours too late.

[Gerald]

I’ve deleted this – we’ll only be dealing with Maiden races, not Med Auct Mdn.[/color:13tkf69k]

[Gerald]

Marble, this is straight up. This is the first time I have used dosage. And I haven’t looked at any other factors. Surely dosage only works in extreme circumstances, either in terms of distance or class. When you got a middle-grade, middle distance race, can dosage really be of any help?

At the moment, I’m just having a bit of fun with this, seeing what the borders and levels are.

[Gerald]

Okay Marble

I’ve started a new thread in the Trends, Research and Notebooks section.

[Gerald]

I’ve just cut him to 12s.

[Gerald]

Hi

Betfair introduced Cornish Sett to their market after the Welsh GN. Bits at 80 and 85

By the way, Betfair have just opened a Place market for the GN, but it doesn’t seem to have been visited by many people yet. The place market is still rudimentary.

[Gerald]

If I wasn’t afraid of Bulwark jumping down my throat, I’d say I’ve out-Irished you all here. I had a non-systemic £20 saver on Harald Bluetooth at the bookies at 3/1, but I did it with my own money, rather than using the betting bank, so although my betting bank is £40 lower, I personally am £60 richer.
I have given serious thought to this, and have decided to keep it this way. The less money there is in my betting bank, the less likely someone is to get hurt in the crossfire.

[Gerald]

It was a close run thing this morning – my last posting is timed at 6.52, and I caught the 6.54 train. (Put my socks on on the train.)

I’ll start this evening, and knock out the H’cap chase at Sandown in the morning instead.

I’ll start with the All-Weather Jan-April. Maiden races only. Don’t want to muddy the waters with Median Auction Stakes etc.

I’ll keep separate data for 1m2f-1m3f, and 1m4f+.

I suppose I have to keep separate data for Southwell as well, as this is Fibresand.

[Gerald]

In the end, it wasn’t the sore shins as a 2yo that put me off, rather that I’d prefer to back it in May when its 10-12/1 and I’m fairly sure its running at Epsom, rather than take a speculative 50/1 now (which by the way has mostly gone now. Ah, the power of the Racing Forum).

I’m rather surprised that horses are still fired, I thought they got rid of that a few years ago – or was that just for tendons?

[Gerald]

The thing about doing one race, is that I am trying to teach myself to analyse a race properly.

Well as someone who’s never made a consistent profit on horse betting (and despite my 1000 + posts on this forum I don’t think i’ve ever actually attempted it, nor do I believe i’d have the proper finances to achieve what i’d need to make to live on cheeder cheese the rest of my life), so i’m certainly not trying to preach to you about to be successful.

You seem to look at races from a very sociological viewpoint, i.e "horse A done this last year and horse A done this six months ago so therefore horse A might do this today". That’s not a bad thing and probably (when I was a bettor) thats the only way I could see as to how to approach it. What i’m trying to say is for some people one particular aspect of study can be decisive, and if you haven’t studied dosage then i’d take a punt that that could guide you, I for one would like to read your anaylises as i’ve never delved into it myself! (hypocrit!)

I have now commissioned you with the task of studying this science from a beginniners stage and coming on here during the flat season to tell us the 25/1 winners running in maidens first time out! (sorry) (I heard dosage is a key indicator for that).

Dosage, or any other kind of pedigree study, would only be useful in certain kinds of races. As I’ve mainly bet in sprint h’caps, I’ve never required it.

I’ll learn it just for a bit of fun.

Don’t know how they’ve been doing during the past few seasons, but if you want a big win, if there are 2 Mark Johnston horses running in the same 7f, or maybe 1m, 2yo maiden, put them in a forecast.

[Gerald]

Not been put off, just being cautious for once.

Arazan, Oxx, Aga Khan

As its Oxx (& Khan), its not likely to run at Epsom in the first place, but if it did, it would be because they expect to win.

The last twice he’s run has been on Heavy ground, so I thought he might be even better than he has shown.

(Sore shins were earlier, bruised foot later.)

[Gerald]

Thanks for the articles Equitrack,

I think I won’t bother with the ante-post bet.

[Gerald]

Hasn’t anyone heard of Google?

1995 Australian gelding, by Rubiton, out of Cachelle (Marscay).

[Gerald]

BTW I had a pain in my face going around trying to collect my bets when he was balloted out of the PP chase- without exception all the bookies told me my slip was a loser until several phone calls were made- wonder how much they rob from punters every year who don’t know the rules?

You have reserves in quite a few races in Ireland, don’t you? I’d have thought the Managers would know the rules.

On a related topic, I worked in a betting shop as a youngster, and I think the view was you didn’t tell punters about unclaimed tickets, because there might have been a settling error.

[Gerald]

Erm, you’re going to get a couple of yokels up in arms if you refer to the Sussex National as a small race.

[Author]

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