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I think you summed it up when you said it’s not a great race.
He would want to be winning that if he has any chance in any decent Grade1’s he may run in.
Having said that I wouldn’t have a brass pennyon him as I simply couldn’t bring myself to trusting the horse
Got a couple of free bets in places and they’ll be going on Franchoek tomorrow.
He really needs to win this tomorrow. With AP on board i’m confident and it really isnt that great a race.
A must win
Lot more going on than Franchoek today though. But stuff it your right so I backed him
AP has some great mounts today and 11/2 Don’t Push It and 3/1 Calgary Bay make a lot of appeal to me.
Charachter Building 11/2 and Tazbar 9/1 look great EW bets and Hobbs Hill could go close if fit.
I backed them all so off to a party and back when drunk to watch them if I can remember which ones I bet
Franchoek has to give weight to Five Dream today that promises to be difficult to do.
Don’t rule out Lough Derg either. He hasn’t exactly been pulling up trees lately but he’s capable if on a going day. You’d expect the trip to be too short for No Refuge but the hill will help him.
Anyone of the four could win for me, no bet I’ll just watch.
Quite good for a mid season hurdle as even a Derby horse is running in it.
Lough Derg will try and gun them from the word go and if given a soft lead will try and burn them off.
Franchoek is a bit of an enigma and its a case of will he turn on the ability that he clearly has.
No bet race but a good one to watch.
What a race that was. Lough Derg fighting back to beat No Refuge.
Franchoek needs to come back in trip didn’t get home after running all over them.
Not fast enough to win a decent 2m and can’t stay 2m4…..and too high in the handicap. I’ll tell you where he goes now……2m chase ASAP. Already been schooled by Enda….
Franchoek jumps hurdles like a natural chaser, but for a chaser he looks like a hurdler! as far as his trip goes its back to 2m, so if he can jump fences its the Arkle route for him! Alan King will be scratching his head for he thought of World hurdle aspirations for this fellow!
I did not have a bet in the race but Lough Derg effectively started before the rest, so had an advantage.
Don’t know if AP went for home a bit early and made a mistake not going for the rail in the finish. Interesting the two guaranteed stayers who were at it some way out fought out the finish. The two doubtful stayers did not get home. Bit early to be calling Franchoek names. Held on to a little longer or in a more slowly run race I think he’ll do better. Is one of those smallish horses who do not go on from their first season. Lough Derg himself is not always as genuine as his finishing efforts suggest. If taken on for the lead early on sometimes give up. Though as everyone knows he’s as game as they come in a finish. I wonder if he reacts to the crowd. Nice to see him, Scu and David Pipe back in the winners enclosure.Mark
Value Is EverythingI was puzzled to say the least with the tactics of the Franchoek team.
He was ridden as though he were a true stayer coming back in trip when the scenario was the the other way round. Slightly more conservative tactics would have surely seen him land the spoils IMO.
a pre-madonna – a "thinker".
Sorry Marble, I usually let bad grammar and spelling go, but I have to correct you on this one. I hope it doesn’t become a habit with me.
Prima donna = first lady. The lead female ballet dancer, who acts like a right Miss Piggy off-stage.
I dont think it was a bad run from Franchoek to be honest, i do think he was too handy during the race though. Yes, he can front run, but Lough Derg is always going to go off at a very decent speed, and should come back to them towards the end of the race.
I think McCoy had Franchoek too close to Lough Derg throughout the race, and made his move too early on the second lap, down the back straight.
I really want to see Franchoek go chasing, i think he has all the attributes to make a good chaser. However, it seems some of the team would rather him stay hurdling, and maybe stepping him up in trip.
You have to say well done to Lough Derg and connections though, he ran a really good race today.
That’s about right.
I know this is aftersaying, but I’m betting in one race a day for this month. If I’d done what I normally do when I have a bit of cash, I’m sure I’d have been on Calgary Bay, Lough Derg and Big Buck’s.
C’est la vie.
Get ‘Choc’ back on board and let him make all.
Agreed although McCoy is more than capable of forcing it on him. They should drop him back to two and be aggressive.
The only problem i’ve ever had with betting in one race a day is your a) telling yourself to bet when there might be no bets b) restricting yourself to one bet a day when as you say you might have had more winners. It could just be for fun of course.
You have the capabilities to get the winners up Gerald as your anaylisis on here have shown, you put a lot of effort into your selections. From reading your work it appears to me you might want to look at something called "dosage"?
Thanks, Marble.
I’ve quickly browsed through it, and will return in a month of two. A useful starting place, as it defines terms as centre of distribution etc. (I don’t think there is anything special about dosage, it just puts into numbers what a breeding expert sees when they see Habitat or Danzig etc in a pedigree. But for some reason, it really pisses off some people. I’ve put this bit in brackets, so that people can’t see it
. When I was a child, in my lazy way, I always skipped over anything that was in brackets.)The thing about doing one race, is that I am trying to teach myself to analyse a race properly. Whether I’m making any money at it is of secondary importance, though of course it will be the pudding that provides the proof.
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