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The thing about doing one race, is that I am trying to teach myself to analyse a race properly.
Well as someone who’s never made a consistent profit on horse betting (and despite my 1000 + posts on this forum I don’t think i’ve ever actually attempted it, nor do I believe i’d have the proper finances to achieve what i’d need to make to live on cheeder cheese the rest of my life), so i’m certainly not trying to preach to you about to be successful.
You seem to look at races from a very sociological viewpoint, i.e "horse A done this last year and horse A done this six months ago so therefore horse A might do this today". That’s not a bad thing and probably (when I was a bettor) thats the only way I could see as to how to approach it. What i’m trying to say is for some people one particular aspect of study can be decisive, and if you haven’t studied dosage then i’d take a punt that that could guide you, I for one would like to read your anaylises as i’ve never delved into it myself! (hypocrit!)
I have now commissioned you with the task of studying this science from a beginniners stage and coming on here during the flat season to tell us the 25/1 winners running in maidens first time out!
(sorry) (I heard dosage is a key indicator for that).Dosage, or any other kind of pedigree study, would only be useful in certain kinds of races. As I’ve mainly bet in sprint h’caps, I’ve never required it.
I’ll learn it just for a bit of fun.
Don’t know how they’ve been doing during the past few seasons, but if you want a big win, if there are 2 Mark Johnston horses running in the same 7f, or maybe 1m, 2yo maiden, put them in a forecast.
It was a close run thing this morning – my last posting is timed at 6.52, and I caught the 6.54 train. (Put my socks on on the train.)
I’ll start this evening, and knock out the H’cap chase at Sandown in the morning instead.
I’ll start with the All-Weather Jan-April. Maiden races only. Don’t want to muddy the waters with Median Auction Stakes etc.
I’ll keep separate data for 1m2f-1m3f, and 1m4f+.
I suppose I have to keep separate data for Southwell as well, as this is Fibresand.
not read anybody else’s thought so forgive me if I am repeating what has been said, but it is pretty clear now that not only does Franchoek not stay 2m4f, but that he is probably just a good early season juvenile and has now been caught up and passed by a lot of his comtemporaies.
I realise he ran decent races at all 3 Festivals, but never really looked like winning at any of them. I also know he stayed 2m on the flat, but that does not always mean he will get much further over jumps and the races he ran on the flat were very average handicaps, while he’s now running against better class horses now.
He may well find his level, but he would not be the first hurdler to start off looking like a world beater only to disappoint later on.Couldn’t agree with you more Stan and said so last season. He’s a lovely horse but his engine is his engine and he has never looked like your typical high class hurdler to me. When you look at Hurricane Fly for example he oozes class and had he been around last year Franchoek probably would have anything like as many races……….as it was he had Serabald and co chasing him home and they are good but not great by any stretch of he imagination.
However you couldn’t write him off in any class as he is a brilliant jumper and goes a fair clip. Sooner or later things will turn out in his favourand he will win a decent race again probably when unfancied. He just needs to keep turning up and it will happen.
Not a horse to bet and not a horse to bet against IMO
(sorry) (I heard dosage is a key indicator for that).
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