[Gerald]

I find it hard to believe that KS didn’t have a hard race in the KG, when the horses behind him did. It reminds me of the comment that Desmond Lynam made once that top class athletes hurt as much as the rest of us, they just go faster while they’re doing it.
I’d also like to see Denman take on Monet’s Garden and Racing Demon et al over 2 and a half miles, and see how much puff he had left afterwards, and how much spirit.
Going back further to the old Old Guard, I’m always surprised in the Arkle debate about people mentioning in an aside that Mill House was their favourite horse. Was it an Ireland versus Britain thing?

Enough of that.

Time for the New Guard.

I’ve come to the conclusion that the Gold Cup will be fought out by Barbers Shop and Imperial Commander. They only have to make the improvement that other horses have made in the past.
They are both at home at Cheltenham.
Barbers Shop will benefit from the distance.
Imperial Commander has got hammered each of the three occasions he attenpted 3+miles when younger, but that was when he was younger.

If it comes up mud, Joe Lively will win. I know he’s being aimed at the GN, but he might as well use the Gold Cup as his prep race as any other.

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

[Gerald]

(When I say PR has been dropped 8lbs for no apparent reason, its because I am taking account of the Scottish GN 5th, and not taking too much notice of first two runs of the season. Surely that is how the Official Handicapper operates, or is PR just receiving his OAP Christmas box?)

One might have slipped by me, as the cross-country races aren’t always referred to as such, but the four horses who have previously won one are

Garde Champetre 4/1 RP forecast
Wonderkid 8/1
Heads Onthe Ground 10/1
Drombeag 7/1

20% + 11.1% + 9.1% + 12.5% = 52.7%

Seems like 10/11

Odds on Betfair currently 3.85, 9.6, 18.5 and 9.4, but can’t work out combined odds as calculator has packed up.

[Gerald]

It looks at the moment as the cross-country race might be run on Saturday morning in pyjamas.

Nick Mordin pointed out that before Dix Villez last month, the previous 12 cross-country races held at Cheltenham had gone to a horse who had already won a cross-country race somewhere.

I don’t think we should take too much notice of that statistic – it may be a generational thing, and that with the retirement of Spotthedifference, it gives other horses an opportunity to step up to the plate.

Its difficult to knock Philson Run isn’t it? Aintree experience, started off in a Hunter Chase, never run over hurdles, won a PtP in Ireland. Has even been dropped 8lbs for no apparent reason. Are cross-country races handicapped separately from other chases????

And for once, his age may not be a problem, as they go at a slower pace.

Just for something to do this evening, I’ll look up which horses in the field have previously won a cross-country race.

[Gerald]

Oh, I forgot – I’ll also be interested in seeing how Turko goes in first time blinkers – wouldn’t dare back him though (ever?)

[Gerald]

So, Albertas Run, Trabolgan, Always Waining, Leading Attraction, Church Island (looks like I’ll be studying Irish form over Christmas), The King Of Angels and Noir Et Vert are out.

I know I wrote there are races to be won with One Sniff, but I can’t believe he is as low as 10, on his seasonal debut, on Cheltenham’s undulating track, and in such a fairly strong field.

I ain’t a big punter, I’m putting a few quid on Possol, taking the jockey’s word that he was idling, and Nick Mordin’s word that the trip will suit him really fine. Daly won this race a few years ago.

Despite what I wrote, I am sorry for anyone with ap vouchers on Mon Mome.

I’ll also be having £2 on Harmony Brig, hoping for 40, but settling for 30.

I’ll decide about One Sniff in the morning, after seeing whether any of you have any observations about him, and after reading the RP. (I’ve got tomorrow off as holiday.)

I’ll be cheering on Irish Raptor for a place, late in the race – he deserves to get in the GN field.

No Hoo La Baloo either, and looks like no Cross-Country race at all tomorrow.

[Gerald]

(A number of the entries are also engaged in the 2.45 at Donny on Saturday: Simon, Fundamentalist, Leading Attraction, Possol, Verasi, Character Building, Harmony Brig, The King Of Angels & Noir Et Vert. )

VERASI
Cheltenham form: Nowhere, Royal & SunAlliance
Nowhere & 5th, Coral Cup (H’cap Hdle)
Midfield, Greatwood H’cap Hdle (G3)
Verasi PU in the Hennessy. Likes Soft & Heavy. Comes up the Sandown incline well, but not so effective at Cheltenham? Done it once and failed once in the Coral Cup.
His Chase rating is already as high as his hurdle rating, and there is no indication he will be a better chaser than a hurdler.

IRISH RAPTOR
Cheltenham form: Nowhere H’cap Chase, at end of season
1st 3m2 1/2 f H’cap Chase, Gd to Sft (now 7lbs higher)
UR William Hill Trophy (different jockey)
Giant horse, has completed Aintree fences 4 times.
7lbs higher than when came 2nd in Topham, so a good performance here will nudge him into the GN.
He was eased when beaten in the Becher, and in his seasonal debut over hurdles he was 7lbs oh, so good effort. Should be able to give a good account of himself. If he gets a 2lb rise, NTD will put him in cotton wool until the weights come out? The Aintree H’capper would hardly give him a lower GN rating than OR rating after last season’s 2nd in Topham.
If he doesn’t perform on Friday, he presumably will be back at Cheltenham on New Years Day for the race he won last season.

HARMONY BRIG
Cheltenham form: 6th in Parsons Legacy’s race
Nowhere, New Year Chase, 2m5f
6th H’cap Chase, 2m4 1/2 f
Has run 3m+ three times only, all in last 4 races.
Only 3lbs higher than when won Listed Rehearsal H’cap Chase at N’cle
Harding riding this one instead of One Sniff.
If a surprise was to win this at 33/1, I think this would be the one. (Win last season was on second appearance of season.)

TRIGGER THE LIGHT
No Cheltenham experience
Alan King’s sole entry. Raced lightly last season as had sore shins. (Has never run on Good ground.) Fell when 4th and held, when Leading Attraction came 3rd at Wincanton last time. Will he get around? You are betting on promise and background, rather than what has been achieved. He’s still a danger though.

ONE SNIFF
Very, very interesting horse. Although a 9yo, he has only had 2 ptp (won 1), 2 hdles (won 1) and 3 chases (won 2). Here is his story.
His half-brother Coq Hardi Affair won 6 races, and his half-sister Mossy Fern won 8.
On his PtP debut, he was beaten 25l by Slim Pickings. He won his second by 10l.
Sold for 80,000 gns at Brightwells 14 Apr 04.
Could possibly be forgiven his defeat on his hurdling debut, as he came 17l second to Denman, who was 1/12 fav after already winning the Challow Hdle.
After he won his first appearance in a Nov Chase, he missed all of 2007. As a consequence, when he came back, he had to go straight into H’cap chases. He won the second of these, last time out.
When he won his Nov Chase, T Dobbin said the undulating track at Hexham didn’t suit him.
Harding is down to be on Harmony Brig, so this race is all about gaining experience?
There’s races to be won with this lad. I’m thinking about the valuable staying h’cap chases held at Doncaster, Uttoxeter & Newcastle Jan-March.

CHURCH ISLAND
Missed 2007-08 season
Cheltenham form: Down the field in the whip taking Amateurs’ race last time
Nowhere, this race 2 years ago.
1st, Nov Chase, 3m, Gd to Sft (RPR146)
Is now 5lbs lower than when 4 3/4 length 4th to Butler’s Cabin in 2007 Irish GN.
Inconsistent, even as a novice.
He needs to go up 7lbs or so to make it into the GN field. He is also entered in the Paddy Power Chase, Leopardstown 27th Dec.
I’ve discovered, since I started betting again a few weeks ago, that I can’t resist a big price . I’ve got £2 at 250 for the GN ( or

THE KING OF ANGELS
Cheltenham form: 2 1/4 length 2nd to Parsons Legacy
PU NH Chase
Midfield, Nov H’cap Hdle, 3m
"He needs a sound surface". JJO’N 08/09/07

Getting a bit punch drunk, just two more to go.

ITSMYBOY
Absent Oct05-Dec06, and since Nov07
Cheltenham form: Distant 3rd to Albertas Run in a Nov Chase
1st H’cap Hdle
Close 7th in NH flat race
4lbs higher than winning H’cap Chase Bangor Aug07, but 4lbs lower than level raised to.
tt and cheekpieces.
Mainly run on Good, disappointed twice on Gd to Sft, but won a Nov Hdle on Heavy.
Stable won this race last year.

NOIR ET VERT
Missing Apr07-Mar08
Cheltenham form: Out with the washing, Parsons Legacy’s race
Distant 4th, Kin Muir (RPR125)
Only 2lbs higher than when sh hd 2nd in 3m1f H’cap Chase, Good, Punchestown Festival.

I suppose its best to wait until the declarations before making sense of this lot. There was more interest lower down the handicap than I was expecting.

[Gerald]

When I wrote purplish, I think I meant black.

In return, I’ve looked up the Cookie monster – he’s got the same birthday as me .

No, not 1st of January.

(Sorry, Moehat & KC, and anyone else reading this, I wasn’t paying attention to who I was chatting with. The Cookie monster is a reference to Brooklyn Brownie. I couldn’t remember his name, but recalled it had something to do with biscuits.)

[Gerald]

Before I have a go at the horses in the middle of the handicap, can I ask a couple of questions about the weather and ground conditions, that hopefully someone can answer authoritatively. (You don’t have to be right, just authoritative.) (We don’t have mud in Dover, just chalk. )

I was originally thinking that the going was going to be verging on soft. At the moment the going is Gd to Sft with Soft patches. I don’t think any rain is scheduled. Frost is expected with sunny/cloudy skies and a wind. To what extent does frost firm the ground up? Of course it hardens the ground, but when it thaws, is the ground a different consistency or whatever? For instance, if there has been a frost and then it thaws, but the daytime temperature is only 4-6celsius, is the ground firmer than if it is a mild 12-14celsius day?

I am wondering if the ground can change in the next couple of days to being on the slow side of Good. Is this what is called "dead" ground? Which types of horses are suited by dead ground? Is dead ground Good ground that doesn’t suit Good ground horses?

I’ve changed my mind from Part 1, and now don’t think that Fundamentalist, Parsons Legacy and whoever else I mentioned will be any more inconvenienced by the ground than other horses.

LEADING ATTRACTION
Off course all of 2007.
Cheltenham form: None
Yet another Hemmings horse, I keep on coming across them this week (GN research). Has only run in 4 chases. 5lbs higher than when 1length 3rd in fast run race. Considering others that PFN could have entered in the race, this must have a major chance. I spent all morning at work worrying whether I had been unduly dismissive of Star De Mohaison, but I’m now content to let it stand. I was worried that I had been too influenced by the RP analysis stating that the fixed brush hurdle race is normally won by a chaser, and the fact that Therealbandit had run nondescriptly in a hurdle race before winning this race. On the other hand, when PFN mentioned Big Bucks’ in the same sentence as Denman and Kauto Star, he also had the opportunity to mention SdM, but didn’t. I suppose the thing to do is to read PFN’s teletext column on Channel 4 on Thursday evening. I think Turko has been given no favours by the h’capper over the past two years. However, he seems to be getting better at 3 miles and has the occasional race when he doesn’t hit a fence. I’m thinking that they may go slow enough that he doesn’t make a jumping error, and he might get involved in the fight for the minor places.

POSSOL
Cheltenham experience: 3rd Nov H’cap Chase (Jewson)
9lbs higher than when beating Mon Mome a neck. (Mon Mome is 7lbs higher.) He idled in front, so ought to confirm superiority with Mon Mome. Only 5yo, and progress expected during the season. (William Hill Trophy at the Festival?)

MON MOME
Out Mar07-Feb08. Not at his best last Spring, but the poor thing was running in the William Hill Trophy, Grand National and Scottish GN. Presumably has had a much better preparation this season.
Cheltenham experience: 4th & 6th Willam Hill Trophy (Festival)
2nd Kim Muir
2nd in 2006 Welsh GN, off 4lbs lower mark.
I can see and hear the cogs whirring in the heads of those with ante-post vouchers for Mon Mome in this year’s WGN:- 27 minus 12 equals 15 days until the Welsh GN. Its nice to see someone else suffer , my small bet on Barbers Shop for the Massey Ferguson on Saturday went up in smoke when he ran last Friday . Hopefully Venetia will think she can’t beat Possol, and will steer clear of this race. Alternatively if he does run, you can hope the WGN gets snowed off and moved to Newbury (a week later?) Piers Corbyn is predicting that parts of the country will be covered in snow, both at Christmas, and then again at New Year.

CHARACTER BUILDING
Off course: 1 race last season, when 3rd in Hennessy to Denman. Now racing off 2lbs higher mark.
Cheltenham experience: 3/4 length 2nd 2007 NH Chase to Butler’s Cabin.
In retrospect, that was a good field: Garde Champetre, Gungadu, Miko De Beauchene, and the still maiden Nine De Sivola being touted elsewhere for the Grand National .
Showed his wellbeing by winning a hurdle race earlier this season. Withdrawn on morning of Hennessy.

Well that completes the meat of the race.
MAJOR PLAYERS
Simon, Leading Attraction, Possol, Mon Mome, Character Building

MINOR PLAYERS
Parsons Legacy, Always Waining, Turko, Fundamentalist(?)

ALSO RANS
Star De Mohaison, Comply Or Die, Albertas Run,

IMPONDERABLES
Star De Mohaison, Trabolgan, Albertas Run, all of the MINOR PLAYERS

Time for a teabreak, and then it is onwards and downwards to the odds and sods at the bottom of the handicap.

[Gerald]

I have it between Character Building and Simon myself, though I see they don’t fit your trends anaylisis. Hopefully it will turn into a bog and the trends get turned over!

First of all, I want to correct a blooper, before someone else does it for me: Fundamentalist beat Contraband by 8lengths, who went on to win the Arkle. . .

The "Trend" analysis was in quotation marks as it was only 2 seasons ago that the value of the race was doubled.

Apart from the trainers, which was half in jest anyway, I think both of your horses fit the "trend analysis". Simon was placed in this race last year, which Royal Auclair also did.
Character Building can be regarded as being well-handicapped, being only 2lbs higher than when 3rd in last year’s Hennessy, and has shown his wellbeing with a hurdles victory.
Both have solid Cheltenham form.

Maybe I should start using emoticons, to show when I am joking.

[Gerald]

Who says this isn’t a big race – we’ve got 3 of the past 4 Sun Alliance winners in the entry, only Denman has cried off.

Keep a keen eye on your shoelaces, ties, stockings, ambassador’s sashes and net curtains, there are four tongue ties required for this first batch.

STAR DE MOHAISON
Off for 2007, and Jan-Nov08
Cheltenham form: 3rd H’cap Hdle
1st H’cap Hdle
1st Royal & SunAlliance Chase, Good ground. 6lengths and 11 lengths, driven out.
3rd "Dipper" Nov Chase (G2)
Won Mildmay Nov Hdle (G2) at Aintree, completing the "double".
Beat The Listener a length at level weights 2 years ago, in the race that Barbers Shop won at Sandown last week.
Comeback race was a fixed brush hurdle event at Haydock.
Will still need this race? Another disappointing performance here will do nicely for his National hopes.

COMPLY OR DIE
Off Jan06-Nov07.
Cheltenham form: PU G3 H’cap Chase
PU G3 H’cap Chase (same race)
16th H’cap Chase
2nd to Trabolgan in Royal & Sunlliance, 3 lengths
1st Novice Chase
2nd Novice Chase
Watch for the b in the declarations – he is 211 wearing them.
(Just for interest, he received 5lbs from Trabolgan when beaten nearly 6 lengths by him in the Hennessy, now has to give him 3lbs.)

ALBERTAS RUN
Cheltenham form: 1st in Nov Chase, and 1st in Royal & SunAlliance Chase.
Has disappointed since.
Said to prefer good ground.
Save your money for the Bowl Chase at Aintree, and the Whitbread.

TURKO
Cheltenham form: 9th Mackenson Gold Cup
3rd Ryanair
7th Royal & SunAlliance
2nd "Dipper" Novices Chase (G2)
Winner of the Barbers Shop race last year, and then second to The Listener in Ireland. Been disappointing since.

TRABOLGAN
Missing 3 years
Cheltenham form: 1st Royal & SunAlliance Chase
OK stats boys and girls, who was the last 11yo to win the Gold Cup?
Since he is owned by Trevor Hemmings, presumably he will be aimed at the GN?
Running off the same mark he won the Hennessy on.
Also considering entering for the old SGB Chase at Ascot next Saturday. Even if it isn’t claimed by snow, frost or waterlogging, it might get fogged off. Might as well run here (please).
(Secretly hoping he doesn’t run, so I don’t have to make a prediction of how he’ll do.)

SIMON
Cheltenham form: 19length 4th G3 H’cap Chase (to Joe Lively), is now 2lbs lower
UR Cotswold Chase
1lb lower than when 3/4l second to Over The Creek in this race last year.
5th G3 H’cap Chase
Said to always need first run of season.
The owner ain’t getting any younger, and we’ve a cold winter in front of us.
Wake up people, we’ve got our first contender. One for the forecasts and tricasts.

ALWAYS WAINING
Cheltenham form: nowhere, H’cap chase
2nd H’cap Chase
Put up 13lbs by the nasty h’capper for winning a good race at Market Rasen. Has bad breathing, and wore a tt for the first time last time out.
Lovely, enthusiastic horse who will do well to come 4th or 5th. He ran 10 times in 2007, but this is only his eighth in 2008.

FUNDAMENTALIST
I’m fairly sure that Kendal Cavalier will say that on breeding this one won’t stay the distance, and won’t like the going. So, I won’t bother to write out the form, which is a good thing, as the bugger has run 11 times at Cheltenham.
Beat Contraband 8l, who apparently went on to win some race called the Arkle. Has beaten a horse called Inglis Drever 1/2 length.
Gone up 4lbs for winning a Veterans’ Chase, in which the fav PU.
I like that David England (3) jockey.

PARSONS LEGACY
Has been lightly campaigned over the years. Has 2 2nds and a 3rd at the Festival.
5th in this last year, off a 4lb lower mark.
Has gone up 6lbs for winning first time out here last time – Joe Lively was 11 lengths back in 3rd.
Also won 1st time out in 2006, 2004 and 2003.
Will finish behind Simon, and ahead of Always Waining.
Trainer thinking about the GN. (Was 3rd in Scottish National to Hot Weld.)
Not too keen on the Soft, but if he doesn’t run here, where is he going to run in the next couple of months?

Going for a kip now, will probably do the rest Wed evening, rather than during the night.

[Gerald]

Vulgan Town was one of my favourite horses in the 70s. (Toby Balding?) I remember he always used to be to the fore in the GN, in purplish colours with pink braces. He was more a 2 and a half mile horse wasn’t he? (I hate these keyboards, quarters and halves required for jumps talk.)

[Gerald]

I’ve mislead you – Butler’s Cabin isn’t in the field, I was just making the point that he is close to the cusp for making it into the GN.

That makes it easy for you though – just Character Building.

I’m planning to do my precis of the race after I’ve had a few hours kip. Meanwhile, here are the entries I’ve copied over from the RP website. I’m surprised that the breeding has come over, as it wasn’t on the page I was looking at. . . I’ll leave it in nevertheless for Kendal Cavalier.

NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR MR
1 /3-9 STAR DE MOHAISON 7 11-12 P F Nicholls 65 155 – –
b g Beyssac (FR) — Belle De Mohaison (FR) (Suvero (FR))
2 11-P COMPLY OR DIE 9 11-11 D E Pipe 83 154 160 161
b g Old Vic — Madam Madcap (Furry Glen)
3 3-4P ALBERTAS RUN 7 11-9 Jonjo O´Neill 45 152 135 165
b g Accordion — Holly Grove Lass (Le Moss)
4 F-49 TURKO 6 11-9 P F Nicholls 65 152 151 165
gr g Turgeon (USA) — Cambaria (FR) (Nice Havrais (USA))
5 211/ TRABOLGAN 10 11-8 N J Henderson 80 151 – –
b g King´s Ride — Derrella (Derrylin)
6 4U-4 SIMON 9 11-5 J L Spearing 50 Andrew Thornton 148 160 166
b g Overbury (IRE) — Gaye Memory (Buckskin (FR))
7 P641 ALWAYS WAINING 7 11-4 P Bowen 20 T J O´Brien 147 159 160
b g Unfuwain (USA) — Glenarff (USA) (Irish River (FR))
8 -8714 FUNDAMENTALIST 10 11-3 N A Twiston-Davies 69 146 152 164
b g Supreme Leader — Run For Shelter (Strong Gale)
9 /54-1 PARSONS LEGACY 10 11-3 P J Hobbs 50 Richard Johnson 146 152 164
b g Leading Counsel (USA) — The Parson´s Girl (IRE) (The Parson)
10 12-3 LEADING ATTRACTION 7 11-0 P F Nicholls 65 143 158 163
b g Mister Mat (FR) — Cerise De Totes (FR) (Champ Libre (FR))
11 1-81 POSSOL 5 11-0 H D Daly 33 143 152 162
b g Robin Des Pres (FR) — Alberade (FR) (Un Desperado (FR))
12 09-2 MON MOME 8 10-11 Miss Venetia Williams 82 140 127 164
b g Passing Sale (FR) — Etoile Du Lion (FR) (New Target)
13 /3-1 CHARACTER BUILDING 8 10-9 J J Quinn 50 Dougie Costello 138 – –
gr g Accordion — Mrs Jones (IRE) (Roselier (FR))
14 18-P VERASI 7 10-9 G L Moore 78 138 132 157
b g Kahyasi — Fair Verona (USA) (Alleged (USA))
15 6-46 IRISH RAPTOR 9 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 69 136 165 163
b/br g Zaffaran (USA) — Brownskin (Buckskin (FR))
16 00-6 HARMONY BRIG 9 10-6 N G Richards 60 Brian Harding 135 133 152
ch g Accordion — Bridges Daughter (IRE) (Montelimar (USA))
17 /11-F TRIGGER THE LIGHT 7 10-2 A King 64 131 133 158
ch g Double Trigger (IRE) — Lamper´s Light (Idiots Delight)
18 /P1- ONE SNIFF 9 10-2 N G Richards 60 D J Condon 131 118 163
b g Mister Lord (USA) — Deep Fern (Deep Run)
19 4/08 CHURCH ISLAND 9 10-1 Michael Hourigan 33 130 97 144
ch g Erins Isle — Just Possible (Kalaglow)
20 -6232 THE KING OF ANGELS 6 10-1 Jonjo O´Neill 45 130 136 165
b g Presenting — Vul Gale (Strong Gale)
21 313- ITSMYBOY 8 10-0 D E Pipe 83 129 – –
br g Frimaire — Hawkfield Lass (IRE) (The Parson)
22 /40-0 NOIR ET VERT 7 9-13 Ferdy Murphy 45 G Lee 128 95 153
b g Silver Rainbow — Danse Verte (FR) (Brezzo (FR))
Long Handicap: Noir Et Vert 9-13

[Gerald]

2007 Over The Creek 6/1fav 8 10-4 DE Pipe OR132

231 in two nov chases at Chelt, and a £5k Beginners Chase, if you please

2006 57K Listed D’Argent 10/1 9 10-5 A King OR135

Off couse for 629 days

2005 28K Listed Royal Auclair 13/2 8 11-5(t) PF Nicholls OR155

5th in only previous run that season (2nd in this race previous season)

2004 29K ClassB Therealbandit 13/2 7 11-9 MC Pipe OR150

9th in a H’cap Hdle

2003 23K ClassB Kingscliff 4/7fav 6 11-2 RH Alner OR148

Won at Ascot last time

ABSENCES
2007 Over The Creek Mar05-Feb07
Chase rating was 8lbs lower than Hurdle rating BEFORE 2nd in G2 Nov Hdle

2006 D’Argent Mar05-Dec06
Had been dropped 5lbs by H’capper in absence, and was 1lb higher than when second in Warwick G3 H’cap Chase

2005 Royal Auclair None

2004 Therealbandit None

2003 Kingscliff None

PREVIOUS CHELTENHAM EXPERIENCE
2007 Over The Creek
26l 3rd in Novice Chase
10l 2nd in Beginners Chase
10th World Hurdle
2nd G2 Nov Hdle 3m (Festival meeting)
1st Nov H’cap Hdle

2006 D’Argent
None

2005 Royal Auclair
4th Gold Cup
3rd Pillar Chase
2nd in previous year’s race
3rd William Hill NH (Festival)
1st Cathcart etc

2004 Therealbandit
9th H’cap Hdle
7th Gold Cup
1st in 2 Novice Chases
1st Listed H’cap Hurdle

2003 Kingscliff
Had won that year’s Foxhunters’ Chase

CONCLUSION
The ideal profile we are looking for is a Pipe, King or Nicholls horse, less than 10yo, that either has good recent form, or is well treated by h’capper because of recent injury, with good Cheltenham form.

Hey, but we knew that before we started!

[Gerald]

Hey, as this thread hasn’t been deleted, I’m going to fly with it.

I mentioned Church Island as on the GN long-range thread I pointed out that 6 of the past 15 winners of the GN have had significant layoffs. Church Island was a closeish 4th to Butlers Cabin in the 2007 Irish GN, and then was out for the 2007-08 season. I’m so looking forward to seeing what he looks like. (He is also entered in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on 27th Dec.) Church Island’s OR is 132 so he needs to go up about 7lbs in the next 6 weeks or so to make sure of making the GN field. (Butlers Cabin also has to show some kind of form as he is currently 138, and might slip out of the GN.)

I’ll post a runner-by runner guide to the 3m1f race tomorrow. Don’t expect anything good – my special interest is H’cap sprinters.

In the Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase (3m7f) on Friday, I am interested in Hoo La Baloo, despite the presence of Garde Champetre and last season’s Cheltenham Foxhunters winner Drom Beag (apologies if spelt wrong) amongst the entries. He was one of two horses I nominated from "leftfield", who aren’t in Betfair’s market for the GN. Hoo La Baloo has just slipped from a rating of 150 (and 158 at the start of the year) to 142 (Topham????) . He has never been so low. The one time he ran off 143 in a H’cap, he won by a head, albeit that was over 2m. Can Hoo La Baloo improve from his debut over the Cheltenham Cross-Country, and not fade? (Can Sam Thomas stay on board?)

Ain’t PFN a marvellous trainer? Hoo La Baloo has mainly run righthanded, and he is now being given a second chance to practice the Canal Turn.

Although PFN doesn’t have a good GN record, what makes his entries in the GN interesting this time is that presumably Ruby will be riding one of them (, so long as Hedgehunter doesn’t make a 6th appearance).

Ciao.

[Gerald]

f (I believe he won the 1000 Guineas).

Erm, you might want to edit that bit.

Although I’ve always followed racing (since 6!), I’ve only just started betting again. Flemensfirth was a name that passed me by. I haven’t entered the sires of all 240+ horses in my spreadsheet yet, but Flemensfirth is the name that springs out at me. He’s got Best Profile (NTD), Imperial Commander, Joe Lively, King Johns Castle, Ponmeoath (twice winner of Kerry National in Sept) (just put £2 on at 250, I think), and Vedelle (JJO’N).

Was Ponmeoath one of the ones under your hat?

Gerald

[Gerald]

Erm, sorry for this new thread . . . it was supposed to be part of the Grand National thread. I haven’t got the hang of using this website yet.

[Gerald]

Quite a few GN types are entered for the 1.55 at Cheltenham on Friday. However, who’ll be turning up?
Presumably Possol will be favourite, and he might not have much to beat, in terms of current form.
Comply Or Die, Simon, Mon Mome (just having a looksee?) , Trabolgan! (ditto?) It would be nice to see Church Island in the flesh . . well, at least on the box.
The (ex?) Gold Cup hopeful Alberta’s Run.
Hennessy withdrawal Character Building.

[Author]

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