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Right, lets clear some of the cobwebs away and find ourselves somewhere to sit. Don’t that North clear up around here? Phew! What’s that smell?
I have been commissioned, by Marble, to study dosage.
We’ll start by looking at the 2.50 Lingfield, 3rd January, 2009. 3yo Mdn, 1m2f.
7-0-11-4-0 (22) DI=1.32 CD=0.45 Lord Chancellor King’s Best (Sadler’s Wells)
3-0-4-3-0 (10) DI=1.00 CD=0.30 Mellow Mixture Marju (Night Shift)
3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI=3.00 CD=0.80 Mile High Lad Sky Mesa (Thunder Gulch)
10-0-10-0-0 (20) DI=3.00 CD=1.00 Tropical Duke Bachelor Duke (Thorn Dance)
1-0-3-0-0 (4) DI=1.67 CD=0.50 Prima Fonteyn Imperial Dancer (Forzando)Bollox, Spirit Of The Glen ain’t in the Pedigree Query Database. I’ll have to find out what dosage is now, so I can work out his figures.
Okay, Spirit Of The Glen is by Catcher In The Rye, out of Sentiment (Dancing Brave). If I look up Catcher In The Rye and Sentiment, then I have Spirit Of The Glen’s pedigree.The first five numbers, separated by hyphens, represent the categories Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional. They go up the scale in terms of distance.
Pre-potent sires have been placed on a list of Chefs-de-Race, in one or two of the five categories.
If a horse’s sire is on the CdR list, the horse gets 16 points in that category, or 8 in two. Points get halved for grandsires, great-grandsires again, and then for great-great grandsires.
SIRE
Catcher In the RyeGRANDSIRES
Danehill
Dancing BraveGREAT_GRANDSIRES
Danzig
Darshaan
Lyphard
HabitatGREAT-GREAT-GRANDSIRES
Northern Dancer
His Majesty
Shirley Heights
Caerleon
Northern Dancer
Drone
Sir Gaylord
Le LevanstellCatcher In The Rye, Danehill, Dancing Brave, Darshaan, Caerleon, Drone and Le Levanstell aren’t in the CdR list.
I’ll use the abbeviations B, I, C, S and P for the five categories.
I/C Danzig
C Lyphard
B Habitat
B/C Northern Dancer
C His Majesty
C/P Shirley Heights
I/C Sir GaylordHere is how I’ve worked out the dosage for Spirit Of The Glen
B-I-C-S-P
0-2-2-0-0 Danzig
0-0-4-0-0 Lyphard
4-0-0-0-0 Habitat
1-0-1-0-0 Northern Dancer
0-0-2-0-0 His Majesty
0-0-1-0-1 Shirley Heights
1-0-1-0-0 Northern Dancer
0-1-1-0-0 Sir GaylordThen just add them up to get 6-3-12-0-1
The bit in brackets is the total number of points, and is a measure of pedigree class, so in this case 6+3+12+1 = (22)
Dosage Index, DI, is /[0.5C + S + P]
In this case, it is [6+3+6]/[6+0+1] = 15/7 = 2.14CD is the Centre of Distribution: [2B + I – S – 2P]/[total points]
In this case, [2×6 + 3 – 0 – 2×1]/22 = 13/22 = 0.59High DI and High CD indicate a sprinter.
Low DI and low or negative CD indicate a stayer.So finally for Spirit Of The Glen we have
6-3-12-0-1 (22) DI=2.14 CD=0.59 Spirit Of The Glen Catcher In The Rye (Dancing Brave)CONCLUSION
This is without bothering to look at the market, studying the form, or who trains each horse etc. Lord Chancellor & Spirit Of The Glen have 22 points each, and Tropical Duke 20 points, so on class it looks like this race belongs to these 3. Just put them in a combination forecast (6 bets). I was hoping to say what would happen if it was a slowly run race, which developed into a sprint, but all I can say is that it is still between those 3 horses.
END OF CONCLUSION.Jeez, I hope that whenever there’s an unraced horse I don’t have to calculate its dosage. I’m not looking forward to the Wood Ditton.
PS please, please don’t take that Conclusion seriously as a betting tip. The difference between 22 and 10 is only 12, and a horse gets 16 for have a Chef-de-Race as a sire.
edit:
The reason I concentrated on total points was because I don’t know the value of the DI and CD figures. How low indicates a stayer? But look at Mellow Mixture – he has the lowest DI, and the lowest CD. These are 3yos running over 10 furlongs in January – 3 days ago they were 2yos.At the moment I dont know how Americancentric Dosage is, and whether the large swathes of worthy European sires who aren’t chefs-de-race are matched by equally large numbers of American sires left off the list.[/color:wj3yzaq2]
Marble, this is straight up. This is the first time I have used dosage. And I haven’t looked at any other factors. Surely dosage only works in extreme circumstances, either in terms of distance or class. When you got a middle-grade, middle distance race, can dosage really be of any help?
At the moment, I’m just having a bit of fun with this, seeing what the borders and levels are.
I’ve deleted this – we’ll only be dealing with Maiden races, not Med Auct Mdn.[/color:13tkf69k]
I think that I’ve read that a DI higher than 4 is a sprinter.
RESULT
8-1-5-0-0 (14) DI=4.60 CD=1.21 Romantic Queen 9/2
2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI=0.71 CD=0.00 Minotaurious 5/4 fav First run on AW[/color:s30dwgow]
3-2-10-1-2 (18 ) DI=1.25 CD=0.17 Gurteen Diamond 12/1
2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI=2.43 CD=0.58 Giant Strides 40/1
3-0-7-0-0 (10) DI=1.86 CD=0.60 My Best Man 5/1
11-7-16-0-0 (34) DI=3.25 CD=0.85 Keep Icy Calm 11/2
3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI=3.00 CD=0.69 Jhinga Palak 22/1
3-1-11-1-0 (16) DI=1.46 CD=0.38 Swiss Lake Sweetie 14/1Okay, the out-and-out sprinter, with the highest DI, and the highest CD won. Our first swallow has arrived. A pity we picked the winner 4 hours too late.
3yo 1m2f Mdn
5 Jan 2008 Lingfield
Last year’s result
3-3-19-2-1 (28 ) DI=1.24 CD=0.18 Pacifism 4/1 fav
4-4-12-6-0 (26) DI=1.17 CD=0.23 Electrolyser 8/1 Debut[/color:1ffpuakh]
5-0-7-2-0 (14) DI=1.55 CD=0.57 Always Bold 7/1 Debut[/color:1ffpuakh]
5-2-3-0-0 (10) DI=5.67 CD=1.20 Flash Of Colour 13/2
6-0-10-0-0 (16) DI=2.20 CD=0.75 Mischief Making 20/1
6-0-16-6-0 (28 ) DI=1.00 CD=0.21 Unlicensed 5/1
6-0-10-4-2 (22) DI=1.00 CD=0.18 Ski Sunday 16/1
7-1-6-0-0 (14) DI=3.67 CD=1.07 I Certainly May 25/1
4-5-15-5-1 (30) DI=1.22 CD=0.20 Sacrilege 9/2
2-2-4-0-0 (8 ) DI=3.00 CD=0.75 Ollie Fliptrick 16/1 Debut[/color:1ffpuakh]The favourite won, and he had the joint-second most points, and the most points in the middle, Classic, category. This also led to him having the lowest CD as well
Okay, I happier with the selection of Lord Chancellor, Tropical Duke and Spirit Of The Glen now.
But let us look at the 2007 result now.
[/color:1ffpuakh]
Saturday 6 Jan 2007
Lingfield
3yo Mdn 1m2fRESULT
7-0-18-1-0 (26) DI=1.60 CD=0.50 Salford Mill 2/7 fav
3-5-8-4-2 (22) DI=1.20 CD=0.14 Jocheski 5/1
7-1-15-5-2 (30) DI = 1.07 CD=0.20 Six Day War 11/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]
1-8-14-7-2 (32) DI =1.00 CD= -0.03 Stand In Black 66/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]
2-2-8-2-2 (16) DI=1.00 CD=0.00 Shea’s Round 33/1
8-0-6-0-2 (16) DI=2.20 CD=0.75 Bluecrop Boy 50/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]
3-0-4-1-2 (10) DI=1.00 CD=0.10 Northern Dune 25/1
5-0-9-0-0 (14) DI=2.11 CD=0.71 Binham Boy 66/1 Debut[/color:3253tznu]First favourite beat second favourite, beat third favourite.
All of Stand In Black’s "good numbers" didn’t help him to place, but at least he beat the rest.
We’re in need of a race where an outsider got among the money.
If there was a race in 2006, I’ll look at that, and then go to bed.[/color:3253tznu]
7 Jan 2006
1.40 Lingfield
3yo Maiden 1m2f
RESULT
6-3-8-0-1 (18 ) DI=2.60 CD=0.72 Abstract Art 8/15 fav
4-3-11-4-0 (22) DI=1.32 CD=0.32 Sky High Guy 14/1
1-5-14-4-2 (26) DI=1.00 CD= -0.04 Opera Comica 3/1
2-1-4-3-2 (12) DI=0.71 CD=0.17 Henry Holmes 33/1
1-1-11-4-5 (22) DI=0.52 CD= -0.50 Being There 20/1
3-3-14-2-0 (22) DI=1.44 CD=0.32 Bariloche 12/1 Debut[/color:1maxubhh]
4-0-9-1-2 (16) DI=1.13 CD=0.19 Lady Evi 66/1
3-2-10-2-5 (22) DI=0.83 CD= -0.18 Safaah 50/1I at first thought great, a 14/1 outsider with 22 total points came second, but then look at all the other horses with 22 points. It doesn’t mean anything. It might have helped that Sky High Guy’s sire is Galileo, who by the way, isn’t a Chef de Race yet.
At least nothing with as few as 10 points has had a sniff of winning this race yet.
At some stage, I am going to be forced to look at the form, but it ain’t yet.Good night.
[/color:1maxubhh]Just for the record, here is the list of Chefs-de-Race as at Dec 08. I don’t know anything about pedigrees or breeding, but the one I was instantly struck by was that The Tetrarch is I instead of B. I thought he was a sprinter, but I’ll have to look him and his pedigree up, but not at the moment.
Abernant (B) Danzig (I/C) MILL REEF (C/S) Rough’n Tumble (B/C)
Ack Ack (I/C) Dark Ronald (P) Mossborough (C) Round Table (S)
Admiral Drake (P) Discovery (S) Mr. Prospector (B/C) Royal Charger (B)
Alcantara II (P) Djebel (I) My Babu (B) Run the Gantlet (P)
Alibhai (C) Donatello II (P) Nashua (I/C) Sadler’s Wells (C/S)
Alizier (P) Double Jay (B) Nasrullah (B) Sardanapale (P)
Alycidon (P) Dr. Fager (I) Native Dancer (I/C) Sea-Bird (S)
Alydar (C) Eight Thirty (I) Navarro (C) Seattle Slew (B/C)
A.P. INDY (I/C) Ela-Mana-Mou (P) Nearco (B/C) Secretariat (I/C)
Apalachee (B) Equipoise (I/C) Never Bend (B/I) Sharpen Up (B/C)
Asterus (S) Exclusive Native (C) Never Say Die (C) Shirley Heights (C/P)
Aureole (C) Fair Play (S/P) Nijinsky II (C/S) Sicambre (C)
Bachelor’s Double (S) Fair Trial (B) Niniski (C/P) Sideral (C)
Bahram (C) Fairway (B) Noholme II (B/C) Sir Cosmo (B)
Baldski (B/I) Fappiano (I/C) Northern Dancer (B/C) Sir Gallahad III (C)
Ballymoss (S) Forli (C) Nureyev (C) Sir Gaylord (I/C)
Bayardo (P) Foxbridge (P) Oleander (S) Sir Ivor (I/C)
Ben Brush (I) Full Sail (I) Olympia (B) Solario (P)
Best Turn (C) Gainsborough (C) Orby (B) Son-In-Law (P)
Big Game (I) Gallant Man (B/I) Ortello (P) Speak John (B/I)
Black Toney (B/I) Graustark (C/S) Panorama (B) Spearmint (P)
Blandford (C) Grey Dawn II (B/I) Persian Gulf (C) Spy Song (B)
Blenheim II (C/S) Grey Sovereign (B) Peter Pan (B) Stage Door Johnny (S/P)
Blue Larkspur (C) Gundomar (C) Petition (I) Star Kingdom (I/C)
Blushing Groom (B/C) Habitat (B) Phalaris (B) Star Shoot (I)
Bois Roussel (S) Hail To Reason (C) Pharis II (B) Sunny Boy (P)
Bold Bidder (I/C) Halo (B/C) Pharos (I) Sunstar (S)
Bold RuCKUS (I/C) Havresac II (I) Pia Star (S) Sweep (I)
Bold Ruler (B/I) Heliopolis (B) Pilate (C) Swynford (C)
Brantome (C) Herbager (C/S) PLEASANT COLONY (i) T.V. Lark (I)
British Empire (B) High Top (C) Polynesian (I) Tantieme (S)
Broad Brush (I/C) His Majesty (C) Pompey (B) Teddy (S)
Broomstick (I) Hoist The Flag (B/I) Precipitation (P) The Tetrarch (I)
Bruleur (P) Hurry On (P) Pretense (C) Ticino (C/S)
BuckAROO (B/i) Hyperion (B/C) Prince Bio (C) Tom Fool (I/C)
Buckpasser (C) Icecapade (B/C) Prince Chevalier (C) Tom Rolfe (C/P)
Bull Dog (B) Indian Ridge (I) Prince John (C) Tourbillon (C/P)
Bull Lea (C) In Reality (B/C) Princequillo (I/S) Tracery (C)
Busted (S) Intentionally (B/I) Prince Rose (C) Traghetto (I)
Caro (I/C) In the Wings (C/S) Promised Land (C) Tudor Minstrel (B)
CARSON CITY (b/i) Key to the Mint (B/C) Rabelais (P) Turn-to (B/I)
Chateau Bouscaut (P) Khaled (I) RaINBOW QUEST (c/S) Ultimus (B)
Chaucer (S) King Salmon (I) Raise A Native (B) unbridled (B/I)
CHIEF’S CROWN (I/S) King’s Bishop (B/I) Reliance II (S/P) Vaguely Noble (C/P)
Cicero (B) La Farina (P) Relko (S) Vandale (P)
Clarissimus (C) Le Fabuleux (P) Reviewer (B/C) Vatellor (P)
Colorado (I) Luthier (C) Ribot (C/P) Vatout (S)
Congreve (I) Lyphard (C) Right Royal (S) Vieux Manoir (C)
Count Fleet (C) Mahmoud (I/C) Riverman (I/C) War Admiral (C)
Court Martial (B) Man O’ War (S) Roberto (C) What A Pleasure (B)
Creme dela Creme (C/S) Massine (P) Rock Sand (C/S) Wild Risk (P)
Crepello (P) Midstream (C) Roman (B/I) Worden (S)
Damascus (I/C) Mieuxce (P)1st January 2008[/color:1up07gp4] Southwell
App Med Auct Mdn 4-6yo 1m3f
Deleted[/color:1up07gp4]
January 2 2008[/color:1gbujwxa] Kempton
3yo Mdn 5f
RESULT
5-3-2-2-0 (12) DI=3.00 CD=0.92 The Little Fizzer 11/1 Debut[/color:1gbujwxa]
0-8-0-0-0 (8) DI = Infinity CD=1.00 Hurricane Hen 8/15 fav
5-2-13-0-0 (20) DI=2.08 CD=0.60 Jane’s Payoff 66/1
7-1-13-1-0 (20) DI=1.93 CD=0.64 Orange Square 11/4
5-0-5-2-0 (12) DI=1.67 CD=0.67 Far Song 16/1
6-5-17-0-0 (28) DI=2.29 CD=0.61 Lady Amberlini 25/1 Debut[/color:1gbujwxa]B-I-C-S-P, just a reminder
Marble, I’m sure that in our ignorant bliss, we would have opposed the odds-on favourite – the least number of total points, and zero Brilliant points, the ones that sprinters are supposed to have lots of.
Once the favourite is struck off, the winner was the one with what sprinters should have, the highest DI and the highest CD.I bet we come a cropper in the next sprint.
2 January 2008 [/color:17scivjg]Wolverhampton
5f Mdn
RESULT
1-5-7-0-1 (14) DI=2.11 CD=0.36 Star Strider 3/1
3-3-6-0-0 (12) DI=3.00 CD=0.75 Chivola 4/11 fav
5-0-8-5-0 (18) DI=1.00 CD=0.28 Lujiana 33/1
3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI=5.00 CD=1.17 Plenty Of Action 14/1
2-8-4-2-0 (16) DI=3.00 CD=0.63 Earl Compton 14/1
3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI=4.00 CD=0.90 Bovered 100/1
7-0-7-2-0 (16) DI=1.91 CD=0.75 Ten For Tosca 80/1Hmm. The odds-on favourite certainly doesn’t stand out. We may have opposed it – but what with? The horse with the highest DI and CD had an absymal 6 points, so hopefully we would have struck that one out as well.
I suppose at 4/11, just lay the favourite on Betfair.3 January 2008[/color:qc8far83] Lingfield
4yo+ Mdn 1m2f
RESULT
4-2-8-2-0 (16) DI=1.67 CD=0.50 Art Man 8/11 fav
6-4-21-5-2 (38) DI=1.17 CD=0.18 Srikuantan 4/1
5-0-5-0-0 (10) DI=3.00 CD=1.00 Rollin ‘n Tumblin 5/1
3-5-10-3-1 (22) DI=1.44 CD=0.27 Movie Mogul 16/1
3-4-6-0-1 (14) DI=2.50 CD=0.57 Flight Dream 8/1
12-1-11-0-2 (26) DI=2.47 CD=0.81 Collateral 66/1
2-0-6-0-0 (8) DI=1.67 CD=0.50 Jollys Joy 100/1I’m thinking that Dosage might be better for striking out horses, rather than ruling them in. Look at Collateral.[/color:qc8far83]
4 January 2008[/color:o2qyt97d] Southwell
4yo+ Mdn 1m4f
RESULT
10-3-11-2-0 (26) DI=2.47 CD=0.81 She’s The Lady 5/1
7-6-14-0-1 (28) DI=2.50 CD=0.64 Phone Call 20/1
4-1-6-1-0 (12) DI=2.00 CD=0.67 Niqaab 7/2 fav
2-8-9-6-1 (26) DI=1.26 CD=0.15 Conclave 9/2
4-3-6-1-0 (14) DI=2.50 CD=0.71 Weet For Ever 17/2
3-1-12–2-0 (18) DI=1.25 CD=0.28 Mariaverdi 4/1
3-0-7-2-0 (12) DI=1.18 CD=0.33 West End Lad 6/1
3-4-15-0-0 (22) DI=1.93 CD=0.45 Feeling Peckish 50/1
10-2-12-2-0 (26) DI=2.25 CD=0.77 Eddystone 50/1
1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI=1.22 CD=0.20 Smiling Tiger 150/1This is 12 furlongs on Fibresand – I’d have thought Solid & Professional points would come in to play. Not many of them around. It is still Classic Points, and total points, as at 1m2f. We’d have opposed the 7/2 fav, and the 17/2 and the 6/1. We wouldn’t have been too keen on the 150/1 shot either.
[/color:o2qyt97d]
I’m stopping for some breakfast, and a shower.4 January 2008[/color:3luehfgx] Wolverhampton
4yo+ Mdn 7f 32yds
Our first 7f race. Let’s see if those Intermediate points come into their own.
RESULT
8-1-7-0-4 (20) DI=1.67 CD=0.45 Tri Chara 4/1
9-0-13-4-0 (26) DI =1.48 CD=0.54 Cow Girl 11/1
3-0-15-0-0 (18) DI=1.40 CD=0.33 King Of Legend 7/1
5-0-15-0-0 (20) DI=1.67 CD=0.50 Lily La Belle 33/1
7-3-8-2-0 (20) DI=2.33 CD=0.75 Far Seeking 18/1
6-1-8-0-1 (16) DI=2.20 CD=0.69 Fine Ruler 13/8 fav
1-0-3-2-0 (6) DI=0.71 CD=0.00 Northstar Express 80/1
2-1-11-0-0 (14) DI=1.55 CD=0.36 Ella 3/1 Debut[/color:3luehfgx]
5-3-12-1-1 (22) DI=1.75 CD=0.45 Miss Hoolie 80/1
11-3-19-7-0 (40) DI=1.42 CD=0.45 Newgate 16/1 Debut[/color:3luehfgx]Not too many Intermediate points about, so I suppose we just have to rely upon total points.
I had to look Newgate up, because he had the most points we’ve come across so far and was trained by DW Chapman. Darley-bred cast-off. Actually goes on to win, trained by Mrs R A Carr, a 7f H’cap at Wolverhampton in April at 50/1 in first-time blinkers![/color:3luehfgx]January 5th 2008[/color:prfru9pu] Kempton
3yo Mdn 1m
RESULT
3-0-18-8-3 (32) DI=0.60 CD=-0.25 Grand Strategy 5/4 fav
12-3-8-1-0 (24) DI=3.80 CD=1.08 Finmore Queen 11/1
7-2-9-0-0 (18) DI=3.00 CD=0.89 Ocean Legend 16/1
6-0-12-5-1 (24) DI = 1.00 CD=0.21 Bon Ton Roulet 33/1
5-1-6-4-4 (20) DI=0.82 CD=-0.05 Thankful 50/1 Debut[/color:prfru9pu]
4-3-5-4-0 (16) DI=1.46 CD=0.44 Hit The Roof 13/8
12-3-16-3-2 (36) DI = 1.77 CD=0.56 Forsyte Saga 14/1
6-1-23-8-0 (38) DI=0.95 CD=0.13 Colleoni 33/1
3-4-14-4-1 (26) DI=1.17 CD=0.15 South Wales 25/1 Debut[/color:prfru9pu]
4-0-6-1-3 (14) DI=1.00 CD=0.07 Caffe Corretto 100/1We’d have definitely have been opposing the second favourite, Hit The Roof, but we might have been frustrated making any extra money, with the favourite beating the third favourite.[/color:prfru9pu]
2.50 Lingfield, 3rd January, 2009.
3yo Mdn, 1m2f.
7-0-11-4-0 (22) DI=1.32 CD=0.45 Lord Chancellor
3-0-4-3-0 (10) DI=1.00 CD=0.30 Mellow Mixture
3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI=3.00 CD=0.80 Mile High Lad
10-0-10-0-0 (20) DI=3.00 CD=1.00 Tropical Duke
1-0-3-0-0 (4) DI=1.67 CD=0.50 Prima Fonteyn
6-3-12-0-1 (22) DI=2.14 CD=0.59 Spirit Of The GlenOkay, I’ll just leave today’s runners for us to contemplate.
Marble seems to be right. I’m off to the bookies. Haven’t decided yet whether to bet with my money or the betting bank’s money.
edit:
£10 straight forecast: Lord Chancellor, Tropical Duke
£5 straight forecast: Lord Chancellor, Spirit Of The Glen.I’m sorry, I couldn’t bring myself to put an equal stake on Spirit Of The Glen, when he is a debutant from a stable I know nothing about. I don’t normally bet.
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