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From the days that I used to buy the RP every day, and used them for various pieces of system testing, I am in agreement with Carvills here. Unless you are very successful with your short-priced horses, it doesn’t make too much difference if you back them to smaller or larger stakes, compared to your other selections. What makes a difference is if you can get 10 long-priced winners up out of 50, rather than 3 long-priced winners up out of 50. Of course, one can’t concentrate solely on these horses, for both psychological and financial reasons (long losing runs are what I am referrring to in both instances.)
The only problem i’ve ever had with betting in one race a day is your a) telling yourself to bet when there might be no bets b) restricting yourself to one bet a day when as you say you might have had more winners. It could just be for fun of course.
You have the capabilities to get the winners up Gerald as your anaylisis on here have shown, you put a lot of effort into your selections. From reading your work it appears to me you might want to look at something called "dosage"?
Thanks, Marble.
I’ve quickly browsed through it, and will return in a month of two. A useful starting place, as it defines terms as centre of distribution etc. (I don’t think there is anything special about dosage, it just puts into numbers what a breeding expert sees when they see Habitat or Danzig etc in a pedigree. But for some reason, it really pisses off some people. I’ve put this bit in brackets, so that people can’t see it
. When I was a child, in my lazy way, I always skipped over anything that was in brackets.)The thing about doing one race, is that I am trying to teach myself to analyse a race properly. Whether I’m making any money at it is of secondary importance, though of course it will be the pudding that provides the proof.
That’s about right.
I know this is aftersaying, but I’m betting in one race a day for this month. If I’d done what I normally do when I have a bit of cash, I’m sure I’d have been on Calgary Bay, Lough Derg and Big Buck’s.
C’est la vie.
HARALD BLUETOOTH
Okay, this one isn’t a dog – Timeform likes him, but he too is making his AW debut. Trainer knows what he is doing on the AW. 525,000gns 26Sep06, 65,000gns 28Oct08. I’ll make him my 22/1 ante-post favourite for the Lincoln.Actually, as he’s been bought by an Arab, maybe he’ll spend spring in Dubai?
Prob My[/color:1khkkb3e] BF Bet Horse
0.260 3.8[/color:1khkkb3e] 5.4 13.40 Mister New York[/color:1khkkb3e]
0.089 11.2[/color:1khkkb3e] 5.4 -27.31 Just Bond
0.073 13.7[/color:1khkkb3e] 2.76 -99.04 January
0.023 43.5[/color:1khkkb3e] 13 -12.95 Fifty Cents
0.117 8.5[/color:1khkkb3e] 5.3 -21.65 Harald Bluetooth
0.080 12.5[/color:1khkkb3e] 11.5 -3.33 Direct Debit
0.220 4.5[/color:1khkkb3e] 6.6 12.19 Wisdom’s Kiss[/color:1khkkb3e]
0.040 25.0[/color:1khkkb3e] 17 -5.09 Xtra Torrential
0.040 25.0[/color:1khkkb3e] 10 -15.09 Randama Bay
0.058 17.2[/color:1khkkb3e] 22 1.63 Lets Get Cracking[/color:1khkkb3e]
1.000Betfair prices are as at 1700, Thursday. (Race is 1950 Friday.)
I had a peek at the market, before I had produced my 100% book, and couldn’t believe it, so I slapped £20 on Mister New York at 5, and £10 on Wisdom’s Kiss at 6. Maybe I should have done it the other way around. As it happens, one can get better odds for these 2 horses at Paddy Power.
January is 9/4 fav at Paddy Power. Looks like my financial future depends on him not going through with his effort in a h’cap.
Still ain’t disciplined.
Jeez, this making a book malarkey is difficult. If you know my character by now, then you’ll know my money is already on, with 27 hours to go.
NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR MR
18 64- Mister New York 12 4 9-5 Noel T Chance 50 George Baker 85 92 97
b c Forest Wildcat (USA) — Shebane (USA) (Alysheba (USA))
29 44- Just Bond 20 7 9-4 G R Oldroyd 50 Paul Mulrennan 83 85 101
b g Namid — Give Warning (IRE) (Warning)
35 51- January 18 t 6 9-3 T M Walsh 0 Shane Kelly 82 73 95
gr g Daylami (IRE) — Noushkey (Polish Precedent (USA))
43 /3- Fifty Cents 274 5 9-3 M F Harris 0 Steve Drowne 82 78 97
ch g Diesis — Solaia (USA) (Miswaki (USA))
54 18- Harald Bluetooth 153 4 9-3 D M Simcock 100 Fergus Sweeney 83 62 97
b c Danetime (IRE) — Goldthroat (IRE) (Zafonic (USA))
66 16- Direct Debit 28 6 8-13 M Wellings 100 Luke Morris 78 74 99
b g Dansili — Dimple (Fairy King (USA))
72 20- Wisdom´s Kiss 53 b 5 8-11 J D Bethell 100 Jimmy Quinn 76 99 101
b g Ocean Of Wisdom (USA) — April Magic (Magic Ring (IRE))
87 09- Xtra Torrential 28 7 8-10 D M Simcock 100 Chris Hough 7 75 84 95
b g Torrential (USA) — Offering (USA) (Majestic Light (USA))
910 66- Randama Bay 13 4 8-9 I A Wood 50 Catherine Gannon 75 85 99
b/br c Frenchmans Bay (FR) — Randama (Akarad (FR))
101 70/ Lets Get Cracking 293J 5 8-5 A E Jones 0 Neil Chalmers 65 – –
b h Anabaa Blue — Queenhood (FR) (Linamix (FR))
Long Handicap: Lets Get Cracking 8-0
SP% Recommended SP% 115
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Mister New York, 4/1 January, 9/2 Just Bond, 5/1 Harald Bluetooth, 13/2 Wisdom’s Kiss, 10/1 Randama Bay, 12/1 Fifty Cents, 20/1 Direct Debit, 25/1 Xtra Torrential, 33/1 Lets Get Cracking.The above betting forecast has just appeared, and I did my own dirty work without it. I looked at the Timeform website first, and then worked through the field on the RP website.
MISTER NEW YORK
7 lbs higher than when won here, 6f, in Feb, and 11 lbs higher than when won here, 7f, Nov. On its only other run at Wolv, was hampered when 2 length 6th on penultimate start (same mark). Apparently was badly drawn, and unfortunately has the same draw this time.
I’ve already looked at the other horses on Timeform, and the word that Shabby would use to describe them is dogs. I’ve half a mind to say sod it, and just have a bet on this one, but if I price Mister New York accordingly, I can do that anyway. I tried making him my 6/4 favourite, but in the end had to move him out to about 11/4.JUST BOND
Hangs right. On same mark as when beaten 3, 1.5, 2 and 1.75 lengths on last fours starts C&D. One for the tricast.JANUARY
Holds head high. Irish horse won 6 runner Wolv maiden by 5 lengths last time, after main market rival unseated rider at the start. This is the horse that is making the market. Neither Timeform nor Racing Post were impressed with his attitude.FIFTY CENTS
Gelded, then absent, then changed stable. How likely is a horse to win a h’cap on his AW debut? Sold for 120,000gns 7Oct05, sold for 2,500gns 29Oct08. Trainer has 3 AW wins in last 5 years (3%), for a £70 level stakes loss.HARALD BLUETOOTH
Okay, this one isn’t a dog – Timeform likes him, but he too is making his AW debut. Trainer knows what he is doing on the AW. 525,000gns 26Sep06, 65,000gns 28Oct08. I’ll make him my 22/1 ante-post favourite for the Lincoln .DIRECT DEBIT
Won claimer penultimate start, has subsequently moved house. Will come 4th or 5th.WISDOM’S KISS
24 lbs higher than when won C&D Feb08, and 21 lbs higher than when won C&D May08. 2 lbs higher than when 0.25 length second C&D penultimate start. Horse that beat him is now 5 for 5 at the course.XTRA TORRENTIAL
Race a month ago was 3rd race in 2 years. Encouraging that he is actually racing again a month later. H’capper has dropped him 15 lbs after coming 9th in a claimer. Stable second string? Interesting horse for next time?RANDAMA BAY
Came midfield in Amat H’cap at course latest. Is 6 lbs higher than for sole victory, at Kempton.LETS GET CRACKING
Been hurdling, with absolutely no success. Won here as a 2yo, on sole AW start. Is h’capped to win. Had trouble negotiating the bend.a pre-madonna – a "thinker".
Sorry Marble, I usually let bad grammar and spelling go, but I have to correct you on this one. I hope it doesn’t become a habit with me.
Prima donna = first lady. The lead female ballet dancer, who acts like a right Miss Piggy off-stage.
Nice for you Mark
, I only had a non-systemic saver on it.I live to die another day. Gaora Lane looked good for a long time. I promise to leave the Twiston-Davies horses alone.
I’ve looked at Folkestone, and I’m sure that people will understand if I give it a miss. I’m intrigued by the 7.50 at Wolverhampton tomorrow evening, but I haven’t watched an all-weather race or had a bet on one for a few years. I don’t know anything about the draw or pace, so I’ll give that a miss as well. No, actually I’ll have a go at it; at times during the next couple of months, All-Weather racing might be all we have.
I am looking to make a 50% return on my bank, before commissions.
Please clarify: is this 50% returns on stakes invested?
If instead it is a 50% increase on your bank, over what time period is this? One day?
I was going to do a mathematical working out of this, and have done so on paper.
What I’ll do instead is give you the correction I am going to use.
x= proportion to bet
p = probability of winning
y = betfair decimal priceCurrently the formula is x = [py-1]/{y-1]
We need to take account of Betfair’s 5% deduction on net winnings from an event.
We also need to introduce an element of damping down, or we’ll inevitably end up in the poorhouse, because we’ll get crippled by the horses I have out of whack.I think this was the formula I had when there was 10% betting tax, so we’ll go along with this, and see how things develop.
Deducted Kelly formula is [py-1.1]/[y-1][/color:ziysrgz3]
Probability My decimal price[/color:3tucm2xm] Horse
0.036 28.0[/color:3tucm2xm] King Harald
0.104 9.6[/color:3tucm2xm] Character Building
0.089 11.2[/color:3tucm2xm] Rambling Minster
0.050 20.0[/color:3tucm2xm] Nor’Nor’East
0.031 32.3[/color:3tucm2xm] Openide
0.091 11.0[/color:3tucm2xm] Noir Et Vert
0.027 37.0[/color:3tucm2xm] Strong Coffee
0.073 13.7[/color:3tucm2xm] Rimsky
0.120 8.3[/color:3tucm2xm] Merigo
0.091 11.0[/color:3tucm2xm] Gaora Lane
0.147 6.8[/color:3tucm2xm] Alexanderthegreat
0.056 17.9[/color:3tucm2xm] L’Aventure
0.014 71.4[/color:3tucm2xm] Le Burf
0.071 14.1[/color:3tucm2xm] Gaelic Gift
1.000Okay, the above is the book I think I should have produced yesterday, but for me it is just academic, because the bets are already placed. I’ve pushed out Merigo a bit, because he has never travelled so far from Ecclefechan, and he might make a costly blunder at one of the Cheltenham fences. Others pushed out are Nor’Nor’East and Gaelic Gift.
This has allowed me to bring in Rambling Minster, Noir Et Vert, Character Building and Alexanderthegreat. I didn’t feel any need to push out Rimsky, Twiston-Davies’ horse.I know my first book is wrong, but I am using a live by the sword, die by the sword philosophy. Although I won’t use it, what I’ll do is put up what I think is a more accurate book. Part of the problem was I was tired and impatient after studying the form, and then typing it up for the Centaur thread. In future, I’ll produce my book before typing up the analysis. I can then have a period of reflection whilst I am typing up the form and do any corrections necessary to the book.
I also know I need to introduce margins of error [edit: that is what the deducted kelly is all about in the title][/color:2qtrig7h], and I’ll do that today, its just my mind was too tired yesterday, and I didn’t want to deal with the extra typing involved for this thread.
At the moment I am using the Racing Post website, looking at each horse’s career form. I got a little bit bored this morning, as I woke up at 3 o’clock, and I accessed the Timeform website for the very first time. You can seach for horses for free on there until 5th January. Have to disable Pop-Up blocker first though. I’ll use it this afternoon to look at the 3m Novice H’cap Chase at Ayr tomorrow. I’ll probably use their service at the weekend to look up all the 3yos for the Classics.
[edit: oh well, Ayr is off. Looks like its the Conditional Jockeys race at Folkestone instead. My train from work actually stops at Westenhanger, but I don’t finish until 4 tomorrow.]
As I’ve written in the first part of this thread, I was naughty when I made that bet. I obviously like him, because he is only 3lbs higher than when he won the Borders National, and is 1 lb lower than when involved in the bunch finish to the London National. My book is basically wrong, and I should have the mares at the bottom a bit longer for a start. Because he was near the top of the list, I probably neglected going back to review his odds, what with being distracted by issues such as "is there any justification for Alexanderthegreat to be a shorter price than Merigo", and what price to put Character Building. Apart from NATD, I am ignorant of which trainers are out of form. Looks like I haven’t factored that in.
Just had £2.45 on Strong Coffee at 55[/color:3k0dof18]. (price moved from 50 to 55 at I was making the bet.)
Difference
-0.049 Rambling Minster
-0.039 Alexanderthegreat
-0.037 Character Building
-0.034 Noir Et Vert
-0.016 Le Burf
-0.004 Merigo
0.001 King Harald
0.017 Strong Coffee
0.018 Openide
0.019 L’Aventure
0.020 Nor’Nor’East
0.022 Gaelic Gift
0.033 Rimsky
0.046 Gaora LaneThe horses more fancied by Gingetipster are near the top, the horses more fancied by me are near the bottom.
Actually, I do fancy the horses near the top – I just seem to have overpriced them in comparison.
. When I was a child, in my lazy way, I always skipped over anything that was in brackets.)
, I only had a non-systemic saver on it.