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Gents, indulge me in a trial. I’ll post results as and when I can, and hope to do so a couple of times a week.
I will also refrain from posting the structure, as I am unsure of the stability and viability of the system, and would hate to be the inspiration / cause of someone’s financial sorrow.
Regards
beedie
Thank you, Matron. I hope you do not have me confused with someone (as your sly
implies); I am a genuine Noob here, with no knowledge of horse flesh. I am strictly interested in ‘beating the bookie’, or at least, making him downsize his order from his local Mercedes dealer. I am trialling this only, and although I am using Befair or Bookie’s online prices, I am not playing the game. Strictly experimental.As a rough guide, I will add this.
My system relies on exclusive races: it is all-encompassing on flat, jump, handicap or non-handicap, but a distinction is made: for instance, I am able to cull at least 10 of the 27 races available to bet on today immdiately, just due to one factor only.
My bank is 20% heavier than Seagull’s / Mark’s, at just over STG 3K.
And I am trialling on meets only on the UK mainland.
I am looking to make a 50% return on my bank, before commissions.
I am looking to make a 50% return on my bank, before commissions.
Please clarify: is this 50% returns on stakes invested?
If instead it is a 50% increase on your bank, over what time period is this? One day?
Thank you, Matron. I lift my glass of red towards the general direction of Surrey this evening.
Results for 1/1/09
Three Selections, no winners
Loss on Day – 20.00
An inauspicious start.
Beedie –
Welcome to the forum.
The point of the systems thread is really to discuss the ins and outs of various methods of winner finding or, at the least, to post your selections before the race which is the only way your claims will have any credibility at all.
To simply post results after the race and not to go into any meaningful detail about your system is totally pointless.
Cormack, I digest and understand your point.
I am at a quandry: I do not wish to release details of it just yet, as I fear it may go ‘bang’ on me, and I am also concerned that if the system was to fly in it’s infancy, some would get on board and eventually lose, and that would not sit well with me.
It is also difficult to post selections before going to the line: this is something that Seagull has also pointed out with Mark’s system.
I will therefore refrain from posting every day, and will up-date accordingly once a month, if it works out. I am also back-studying the system with ten years worth of Raceform’s, and this should indicate to me fairly quickly whether it is a viable, sound proposition.
If I find it works, I shall release all details. As I stated, I am no punter; this is my way of excersising my grey matter…a sudoku, albeit with better returns, if you like.
Apologies.
That’s fine Beedie, and it’ll be interesting to hear what the backfitting turns out like, but no one will accord your claims any credence whatsoever until you either publish the detail or they are proofed prior to running.
It’s the only test that counts.
Well, this seems to be flying quite well, so I’ll divulge how it’s works.
Seagull’s / Mark’s system struck me to have two flaws:
Firstly, if you had a bad run, you expended your bank after nine bets, on the basis of doubling up from a fiver up to £1280. At this point, the original bank of just over two and a half grand was cooked.
For me, I wanted to work out a way to stay in the game longer.
Secondly, if you had a big number on any bet, it had to be at evens money to just get your money back with a tiny profit (less so with a Betfair commission). Less than Evens, you were losing.
So, my rules are
No JF’s.
Only Fav’s of 3-1 or more.
Set the profit margin at 50% of staked money.
A stake plan as follows5.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
30.00
45.00
75.00
120.00
185.00
300.00
480.00
750.00
1200.00As you can see, this gives me 14 bets, with a bank of £3240.00.
This is the state of play as of today (13/1).
1-1 – 3 Bets No winners
2-1 – 5 Bets 1 Winner – Folkestone 3.40 Mount Benger 3-1
3-1 – 4 Bets 1 Winner – Lingfeild 12.40 Bavarica 3-1
4-1 – 1 Bet No Winner
5-1 – No bets
6-1 – No bets
7-1 – 4 Bets No Winners
8-1 – 2 Bets 1 Winner – Southwell 3.20 Tri Chiara 4-1
9-1 – 3 Bets 2 Winners – Lingfield 2.30 Colonel Sherman 3-1 & 2.00 Ten Down 3-1
10-1 – 4 Bets 1 Winner – Kempton 3.00 Carlton Scoop 10-3
11-1 – 1 Bet 1 Winner – Great Leighs 1.25 Dishdasha 3-1
12-1 – 2 Bets No Winners
13-1 – 5 Bets 1 Winner – Southwell 2.30 My Sweet Georgia 10-3Amount staked – £740.00
Return before commission – £1326.17
Profit before commission – £586.17
Profit % before commission – 79.22Caveat Emptor, my good fellows. As I stated, I am no punter, am no judge of horseflesh. I’ll update this as and when, but if it all turns to mud, well…it all turns to mud.
14/1/09
5 Bets – 1 Winner – Kempton 8.50 Fancy Footsteps 7-2
£ Staked today – £190.00
£ Returned – £337.50
Profit for Day – £147.50
Profit C/F £733.6715/1/09
7 bets – 2 Winners – Ludlow
14.10 In the Decider 7-2
15.10 Just Smudges 4-1Amount Staked – £50.00
Return – £47.50Loss of 2.50 for day
Profit C/F 731.17
16/1/09
7 Bets – 2 Winners
Chepstow 15.10 Supremo Keano 4-1
Catterick 15.20 Super Baby 7-2Amount Staked – £190.00
Return – £397.50Profit of £207.50
Profit C/F £938.67Profit % 80.23
And so, Gentlemen, we come to the point where we ‘start agan’. In fact, we should have started again one bet earlier today, but I was too addled after a Temple Bar-induced bender.
Let me explain.
When we started on 1/1/09, we had a ‘bank’ or as I would call it, ‘working capital’ of £3240.00, and this working capital was to ensure a 50% profit over a period of 28 days.
Now, we have only been in deficit of our ‘working capital’ (or, as in business terms would utilise ‘called on’) our bank up until the 8/1, where we were in deficit to the tune of £250.00.
Since then. all bets have serviced from profit, and since the 9th, from what I call ‘working profit’.
Let me explain these terms:
Working Capital =- £3240.00
Actual Profit = Returned winnings up to 50% of total stake.
Working Profit = Returned winnings over initial 50% of stake.Over the past ten years, the working capital has been raided entirely eighteen times. That is right: if you worked just with your bank, you would be belted. The sytem, working just on your working capital, does not stand up to scutiny. Your money would be gone.
However, by utilising your working capital plus your working profit, you can extend your range of betting (ie the number of times you can stake) significantly.
And more to the point, the maximum number of times over ten years that the ‘run’ of losing bets for favourites that were 3-1 or over is 21.
So if you can stay in the game to the point where you can bet up to 22 or more times, you have a chance of doing quite nicely. Of course, this goes against the random nature of racing, and the general rule of doubling up and chasing favourites, but, it seems to function
This is where we have gotten to today.
As of after the 3.20 at Catterick yesterday (16/1), there was a total profit profit of £948.67: a total profit % of 81.79 on staked funds. We had achieved this by receiving returns of £2108.67 on stakes totalling £1160.00. So at this point, my actual desired profit was £580.00, and my ‘working profit’ was £368.67.
So at this point, my staking plan is able to support the following bets
5.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
30.00
45.00
75.00
120.00At this point, we bank our profit and start to use our original working capital again. We reached it today at 3.30 at Lingfield with the loss of Svindal.
5.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
30.00
45.00
75.00
120.00
185.00
300.00
480.00
750.00
1200.00So, as you can see, we are able to stay in the game up to 23 bets, plus have banked £623.67, thus reducing our exposure of working capital from £3240.00 to £2616.33.
When using ‘working profit’, the losing bet of £120.00 is the ‘trigger point’ to bank over and above 50% of profits, and then move on with your working capital.
The whole point of this is that once you are on a losing run which diminishes your actual profit to just above 50% of stake, you should bank the remaining profit and start again with your working capital, plus be able to out-run the longest losing sequence.
Well, that is the theory. Let us see.
implies); I am a genuine Noob here, with no knowledge of horse flesh. I am strictly interested in ‘beating the bookie’, or at least, making him downsize his order from his local Mercedes dealer. I am trialling this only, and although I am using Befair or Bookie’s online prices, I am not playing the game. Strictly experimental.
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