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I’ve managed to get myself a ticket for next Saturday mickey, I’m beyond excited to be back on a big course!
Sir Lamorak is entered twice next week in races not sure he’s gunna run on Saturday
I’d have BB a 6/4 shot for this so I took more at 2/1 yesterday to go with a 28/1 antepost bet. He’s easily the best horse to back off trends.
I don’t think HD is going to run and he seems unlikely to suit Epsom.
MS would be a good choice in soft conditions but it could even be GF.
The trouble with Mohaafeth is that the derby history is littered with horses like him who turn out not to be good enough.
Better to stick to the main trials for me. He’s also raced 3 times already this year which is a big negative on tends.
Third Realm comes out strong on trends, lone Eagle would have an EW chance at those prices and One Ruler whilst doubts remain about his ability to stay is an insulting price currently
One things for sure, Mother Earth blew apart the theory that Ballydoyle were instigating everything for SB!
Did a Zoffany finally train on or was it more that the race came just early enough in the season and the quality was poor?
Time will tell.
I’m not that surprised as no-ones wanted to back anything hard in this market so now people are latching onto the potential big improver. Got a lot to prove. I’m happy with my picks MOTS and Wembley although Poetic Flare EW I think is a great shout. JB said he puts him in New Approach’s bracket!
Would’ve been even more obvious if they’d not declared Pretty Gorgeous and Shale at the same time though!
Little bit fishy but not sure PG would’ve liked the ground anyway and as you say all is fair etc
Yeah that’s the point TTM exactly, can get pretty good odds on their second strings. I never begrudge people taking AOB second strings for sure, it’s a good strategy. But people make comments like it doesn’t matter who the Ballydoyle number 1 is. Well statistically it does, a lot, especially in the Guineas.
I think he was told To ride TS in 2019 and last year both horses weren’t good enough to win as neither were good enough stayers anyway despite Wichita getting close. He was always going to get beaten by a staying miler.
This year I’d be very surprised if RM is wrong as both VG and Wembley have strong chances on paper and trends
I think the extra mile will irradicate that. I agree with you though, I am expecting them to ride him slightly more in the pack. I think this was the plan last time in the Dewhurst, but he just got caught out wide from a bad draw and had no choice as the horse inside him was keeping him out. It marks up his run even more on ground he wouldn’t have enjoyed either.
The Wembley move yesterday was because Hugh Taylor tipped him and then Tony Calvin wrote that he’s heard rumours as have others that AOB is very sweet on Wembley at the moment.
Your point about the first string TTC is spot on. Makes me laugh when people say it doesn’t matter who RM rides. It does matter. It makes a huge difference as you’ve pointed out.
Yes of course his second and third strings can win but it’s much more likely they don’t especially in the 2000 Guineas.
I think SMB will go to the French Guineas as the ground is too quick for him, possibly with Battleground waiting for the SJP as AOB mentioned in February. Being a War Front means he’ll take time to come to himself at 3.
Military Style will set a fast pace to try and set it up with RM riding Wembley and Frankie riding Van Gogh, that’s my guess
Haha, ah sh*t you got me TTC, this reminds me of the times I back a dead cert in the last race when a few pints down. Defo going to win…
Mike winning a classic for the first time is fine and people are either trends driven or not but 10 pattern winners as juveniles and just one listed winner in 3 year olds across UK. Surely there’s a specific reason for that you couldn’t ignore?
Brave people backing Thunder Moon this weekend at current odds.
Wasn’t POS 20/1 as well?!
I’ll take 20s on Thunder Moon being out of Zoffany if you’re offering me that TTC! Where do I sign up!!
Thunder Moon is out of Zoffany FF, that’s all you need to know to cross him off for me!
I don’t think Mutasaabeq is going to stay. It’s likely to be a strong test to set it up for Wembley with Military Style there.
I also find it a bit comical that he almost went fav. yesterday just because he won a 4 runner wind assisted novice race against either rubbish or completely underperforming horses.
You’ve got proven top grade juveniles in there, Mutasaabeq should be 20/1 for me. It’s a world of difference between a cr*p 4 runner Novice and the 2000 Guineas!
True Mike, although it was Good, Saturday should be GF hopefully unless Newmarket open the heavens on it which is not unlikely.
Last Year’s race was a good enough race though and they came up the stands side. I wouldn’t want to get drawn out on the top wing, but otherwise I would be pretty hopeful of a true race
That’s an odd way to look at Thunder Moon though FF surely? A horse that shows electric speed on a fast surface, then looks tired on heavy ground in the last furlong next time out? No surprise there is it?
He’s got Sadlers Wells on the Dam side, he ought to have no issue with a mile. It won’t be the distance that beats him
Depends how many horses there are I guess, re running down the centre. It’s fast ground though hopefully, which makes it more likely to be a fairer surface. The bias really comes in at Newmarket when it’s a bit on the easy side.
Thunder Moon looks to have the best juvenile form certainly. He looked electric in the National and ran pretty well in the Dewhurst on ground he would not have liked. The big issue is how well will he train on. I believe from comments I read, he was a fairly small juvenile so might not have much scope generally but the big red flag is the Zoffany thing.
To date, Zoffany has produced two juvenile group 1 winners, four group 2 winners, a group 3 and listed winner. Comparatively, there is only a listed winner on British soil, amongst those horses at 3.
If we look at 7 of the 10 most significant Zoffany horses on ratings and they did not even win a race at 3.
The only thing maybe in Thunder Moon’s favour is that he is Zoffany’s highest-rated juvenile ever, but he’s unbackable for me based on all those trends.
If Wembley gets done with a turn of foot, it will be by Master of the Seas for me.
