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Mathematics is all about proof. I think you are confusing number crunching with something which is far more exact.
The concept of "value" is somewhat misguided. It first assumes that it is compulsory to have a bet once you have discovered a bookmaker offering odds in excess of what you think it should be. It can be a useful starting point in the betting process but it is folly to assume that just because Bookmaker A offers a price in excess of what you expect that they have made a mistake.
The concept of patience is far more worthwhile.
The three that followed him home were Pride, Maraahel and Oratorio. The fact he was 25/1 shows that the depth in that race was well up to standard.
Sea The Stars is definitely over-rated. The horses he beat throughout his career were pretty ordinary.
Rip Van Winkle whom he beat over 1m, 1m2f and 1m4f was rated 129 for his 2nd to Sea the Stars in the Eclipse, Fame and Glory was rated 128 for his 2nd to Sea the Stars in the Irish Champion.
Both these are superior to anything a certain great horse has beaten in his career to date.
You forgot to mention that the almost religious following that some of the pricewise disciples adhere to can afford the bookmakers to shorten up one of his selections without impunity. Like any religion, if enough people believe then the mindless herd will follow.
Hi,
I have a copy. Let me know how you want the information and I will see what I can do.Oh thank you, I’ll PM you.
Ginger, if you want a more accurate assessment of the quality of the Champion Stakes over the given timeframe you have alluded to, then taking the TF ratings of the first 4 home for each year should give you a more worthwhile answer. Bearing in mind that any fillies would need the fillies allowance added to their rating. As it is the end of year rating rather than pre-race or race-achieved figure that is used in assessment, the Annual rating would suffice.
Thank you Matron, alas the file does not have group 1 data and the Raceform RPR ratings are not the same as the end of season OR which is used to calculate the pattern rating.
Is this any good to you?
42,537 European Pattern runners from 2005 to date.
GB,IRE,FR,GER and ITY.
Race date, country code, horse name, trainer, sire, RPR/Raceform ratings.Excel.xls
What do you use to open this file?
Brigadier, although it does not have what I am looking for there is some interesting information.
For those who say there is too much racing a comparison of 2011 figures between France and Great Britain;
France had 9466 horses in training last year and 4792 races
GB had 9806 horses in training and 6270 races.
The French have much a better funding model yet can only viably sustain almost a quarter less races with a horse population of nearly 97% of the GB figure.
In conclusion there are an awful lot of horses running for the benefit of someone other than their owners in this country.
The above figures are for flat racing only.
Thank you BB, I’ll look and compare the figures I already have. The pattern uses the OR so there may be some discrepancies.
No problem Brigadier, the European Pattern Book lists the 3 previous year’s ratings for all pattern races down to group 3 status. The 3 year average which is used to help maintain the integrity of the pattern is also given.
The BHA were helpful in providing the figures from 2000-08 when I requested but I only have the UK figures complete for this century. The European ratings I have for the period 2000-06 again courtesy of the BHA.
I have had a look on Weatherby’s website since posting the request and the book is reduced from £47 to £20 but as the information I am looking for is almost "out of date" it seems rather indulgent.The name does not ring a bell. Most of my Newmarket time was 1990-94 then infrequently between 1998-2001.
The pattern race rating of the Champion Stakes since 2000 are;
2000 124.25
2001 116.75
2002 118.75
2003 118.00
2004 121.50
2005 121.25
2006 121.75
2007 120.50
2008 121.50
2009 121.25
2010 121.00
2011 125.50These being a mean figure of the first 4 home each year. This gives a median rating of 121.250 which places the Champion Stakes as the 5th best race in the UK in terms of rating over standard.
The 4 races above it are in order; The Dewhurst, The King George, The Prince of Wales and The International.
Though 12 years is quite a small sample, the median of a mean figure gives a more accurate average figure, otherwise the QEII and Derby would also rate above the Champion.
What Hammy is saying is that Newmarket is a town full of people who think they know something. However what they do know does not usually make up for what they do not know and hence over time they do not make a profit. Admittedly when I worked there the 10 and then 9% betting duty usually took care of the winning margin. There was one man who had historically been unprofitable to the firm but in the time I knew him he seldom had more than a fun bet and he was monitored because of who he was rather than his bets. He was an absolute gentleman and always a pleasure to talk to.
Another well-known Newmarket character is probably the best example of a terrible gambler. He could come in to back one horse but would either lose his stake before the horse ran or play up his winnings until he walked out of the shop with nothing. His wife/girlfriend unsure of what their children would have for an evening meal.
