Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Alas we cannot have everything, I agree that the POW was the best race of the season thus far. A masterful ride from Frankie on a late maturing horse who may yet prove even better.
Harbinger’s performance was exceptional and almost freakish, though I doubt Workforce would have got any closer than 9 lengths behind him on the day even if he wasn’t 100%. As a single performance in a prestigious race it looks great but the true merit in the annals of equine immortality are much harder to quantify. All Harbinger’s other performances might almost make a cynic wonder where the improvement came from and if there was more than just an injury that sent him off to stud in foreign climes. Prior to the race last year I thought he was the better of SMS 2 prospects in the race and I also expected Cape Blanco to confirm the Dante form with Workforce. Every year a horse has to win the Derby, King George etc as they take place at set points on the calendar although one can help but think that Ascot would love to have the King George as part of Champions Day at some point in the future, although it probably wouldnt stand much chance against the Arc in terms of attracting runners.
Whether or not Workforce has an aversion to the track (his sire has an awful record with his progeny at Ascot) should be answered this afternoon, though that doubt ought to be enough to warn punters about taking a short price about him. After all if it were so easy to foretell the future the Magic Sign would have ceased trading many moons ago.
True the King George is the 2nd best all-aged 12f Event in Europe, but the sad truth is that 10f is where horses really have to show their mettle to enhance their stallion prospects. Now the proximity of the Grand Prix de Paris and the willingness of trainers to pitch their 3yo there does not bode well for the future. With the small field I concede that running Nathaniel is a low risk gamble, although had the rains continued I think his chances would have been greatly enhanced.
It is a widely held view that any horse achieving a rating of 120 or more in the International Classifications is top class. Given that, there are 3 top class runners lining up for the race. An outstanding racehorse is (using a simple method of +10%) one who achieves a rating of 132 or more on the IC. It seems we are too easily sucked in by journalistic hyperbole.
Therefore, given that top class 12f animals are not commonplace, then having 3 turn up for a race is perhaps as much as the racecourse executive might hope to expect. My point is that while they may be the best available, the best available isn’t that good at present. Perhaps today’s race will prove me wrong but I seriously doubt it.
Looking at the stats its been a while since a 3 year old has won the race but overall their record is superior.
Nathaniel is obviously thriving or you wouldn’t waste the entry fee. Any more rain would suit him more than any of the other runners and in receipt of 12lbs from his elders, he clearly represents the value.
I’m not sure how many Derby winners have run in the race as 4 year olds but Teenoso was the last to be successful 27 years ago. Last year the Workforce team were similarly bullish about his chances and Cape Blanco confirmed Dante form with him. He clearly is not a straighforward animal to train and therefore taking a short price about such horses does keep the bookmakers one step away from the workhouse. Rewilding has clearly improved from 3 to 4 and may have improved past him, especially if you take the form against So You Think at face value. St Nicholas Abbey won the Coronation which is usually one of the weakest group one races in the calendar beating an admirable racemare but one who has subsequently been soundly beaten by her own sex.Most disappointing of all is the size of the field, given the prize money and the lack of an outstanding runner. Ascot need to do something to reinstate it’s championship status as it is fast becoming just another Group One.
When Sea the Stars won the Guineas, he had 3 subsequent Group One winners, 3 Group 2 winners and 2 Group 3 winners behind him. There is still a distinct possibility that Delegator and Cityscape could improve their records.
Now either the European pattern is a load of rubbish or Sea the Stars beat one of the strongest Guineas fields of recent times. The Guineas requires a horse to show some precocity and also the speed to win over a mile. There is an old adage quoted in Roger Mortimer’s fabulous tome on the history of the Derby Stakes; "The fittest horse wins the guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby and the best horse wins the Leger."
While the Leger has been usurped by other races with greater kudos, I appreciate the sentiment that a horse that can win over the Rowley Mile in May and the Arc de Triomphe in October is a special animal, to have won the Derby, Eclipse, Juddmonte and Irish Champion in between is extraordinary.Sea the Stars won every race he contested after his debut. In his classic year he only raced in group one company and defeated all comers because he was better than the rest. Exceptional horses can show their full maturity at 3 and he had nothing left to prove.
Like Pat Glennon on Sea Bird II, Mick Kinane knew he would never sit on anything else like him and they both did the only sensible thing you can, retire and be thankful they have had the chance to ride supreme examples of the thoroughbred.
Having watched the race it was an above average renewal, Workforce has clearly improved from 3 to 4 as you would expect from his trainer. The Winner is a decent horse who took a little while to find top gear and was a comfortable winner in the end, already pulling himself up before the lollipop. Seamie Heffernan rode the winner with the confidence that he was on the best horse in the race, and deserves credit as he would no doubt have been castigated had things gone awry.
From a commercial point of view, connexions of Workforce must be desperate to get a 10f Group One out of him as he looks destined for a career as a jumping stallion. As for the winner, a meeting with Frankel would be interesting, over a mile you would fancy Frankel, 10f So You Think.The over-riding fact from today’s race, neither animal is anywhere near Sea the Stars, a genuine Superstar.
My immediate impression of the 2011 Derby is that it was a much better race than the 2010 renewal.
True,Workforce has subsequently proved himself to be one of his trainer’s better Derby Winners. However he ran appallingly in the King George, giving rise to questions regarding the horse’s constitution and gives the impression that 12 furlongs and upward are his forte. On looks alone he looks nailed on to make up into a National Hunt sire as his appearance at Cheltenham or Aintree would not be out of place. However, his trainer has a wonderful record of improving older horses so he may yet be able to show top class form at 10 furlongs, though I for one would be laying him in a group one over that distance, he ducked So You Think in Ireland to avoid the label of "inconsistent" though his record already warrants it.
The manner of Pour Moi’s victory was incredible as Epsom is not a place where exaggerated waiting tactics usually work over a mile and a half. The trainer himself compared him favourably to Peintre Celebre who was one of the best racehorses of the last 30 years. The unique nature of Epsom provides the ultimate test of horseflesh and has done so for 230 years, to win the Derby a horse has to have some precocity and many excellent horses have shown their best some time after the first Saturday (or Wednesday) in June. A good example of this is the 2006 race where the 3rd home Dylan Thomas subsequently proved himself to be the best horse in the field, yet at the appointed hour he was not ready to show his true class. On Saturday the over-riding impression was that in a very messy race, the best horse had prevailed despite everything. Of course only time will tell if he can add to his trainer’s illustrious list of Arc winners.
