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I may look like an idiot tomorrow but who cares?I believe that St. NA will skate up tomorrow.During the preliminaries for the Coronation Cup Johnny Murtagh said that SNA was the best horse he had ridden.Aidan O’Brien said that he was the fastest he had trained, last year, prior to the Guineas.At the end of the year he asked to be allowed to train him as a 4year old to prove that he was as good as he thought he was.In the final furlong of the Coronation Cup he was brought to the outside by Moore,balanced and asked to take on Midday. In a few strides the race was over.Now if Aidan had any doubt about winning he would get a top class jockey to ride him.If he thought he could not win he would not keep him in the race.His own reputation is at stake.But he is so sure he will win that he is giving Joseph the glory ride.In fact he is so sure he will win that he is willing to sacrifice 3lbs(use an apprentice) and still win.So Aidan believes he will skate up.
I believe that SNA will skate up tomorrow for Aidan and Joseph.Otherwise why go for it? Any other place with Joseph riding will bring nothing but weeping.
I believe that SNA will skate up tomorrow for Aidan and Joseph.Otherwise why go for it? Any other place with Joseph riding will bring nothing but weeping.
totally agree
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The alternative view being; that one of his opponents has already beaten
"the best horse he’s ever trained"
this season, and the other went close in entirely the wrong circumstances, so what does it matter who he puts up?
Good luck with your bet, Andy, but that’s a lot of faith to put in a jockey who has never won a race in this country, let alone around the course.True the King George is the 2nd best all-aged 12f Event in Europe, but the sad truth is that 10f is where horses really have to show their mettle to enhance their stallion prospects. Now the proximity of the Grand Prix de Paris and the willingness of trainers to pitch their 3yo there does not bode well for the future. With the small field I concede that running Nathaniel is a low risk gamble, although had the rains continued I think his chances would have been greatly enhanced.
It is a widely held view that any horse achieving a rating of 120 or more in the International Classifications is top class. Given that, there are 3 top class runners lining up for the race. An outstanding racehorse is (using a simple method of +10%) one who achieves a rating of 132 or more on the IC. It seems we are too easily sucked in by journalistic hyperbole.
Therefore, given that top class 12f animals are not commonplace, then having 3 turn up for a race is perhaps as much as the racecourse executive might hope to expect. My point is that while they may be the best available, the best available isn’t that good at present. Perhaps today’s race will prove me wrong but I seriously doubt it.
Eclipse First – fair points.
I guess you are right. I didn’t realise what you meant by ‘outstanding racehorse’.
But I will make two points.
Harbinger ran a 135 in last year’s King George (world throughbred rankings). I would *rate each of the big three today as being superior racehorses.
Also maybe this isn’t the point you are getting at it. But I want to say it anyway. There are three 12f races in the UK (open to all sexes). The Derby for 3yos, the Coronation Cup for 4yos+ and the King George for everyone. We have last year’s Derby winner lining up – who also happens to be an Arc winner and this year’s Coronation Cup winner in the line up – who was a champion 2yo. Add in a Sheema Classic and Prince of Wales’ winner and all in all, you aren’t going to a get a much better line-up than this, are you?
Finally my guess is that if a 132+ runner was running here, opposition would be scared away and you would be a left with a very short priced favourite. And then, we’d still be complaining about a paucity of quality.
*rate – I don’t mean rate in the conventional sense. I’m not sure if any of the big three will ever poast a 135. But they have all already won more Group Ones than Harbinger, and each have proven their consistency and versatility. So in that regard, I rate them better.
I believe that SNA will skate up tomorrow for Aidan and Joseph.Otherwise why go for it? Any other place with Joseph riding will bring nothing but weeping.
Best of luck with your bet Andy.
I had to read your post twice to make sense of it and in my opinion, your logic is very, very flawed.
Do you not realise that Joseph is a very talented jockey?
He’s been trusted with the ride on a thoroughbred already worth millions, in a race worth millions, but I can assure he is not being put up because the race is a penalty kick. If you’ve seen Joseph ride before, you will sure have realised this?
I think this is a "watching" race as it is too tricky to call for me.
ZipIf you think it is a "tricky race" Zip, instead of backing nothing why not back everything in the race for a guaranteed profit.
Was better half an hour ago but still can be done.
Bet 365 currently betting under-round.
Workforce 40 points @ 6/4
St Nicholas Abbey 22 @ 7/2
Rewilding 22 @ 7/2
Nathaniel 11.8 @ 15/2
Debussey 0.67 @ 150/1All at b365
96.47 staked
At least 99 points returnedValue Is EverythingWhat is the pace going to be like?
Rewilding won the Prince Of Wales last time out @ 1m2f beating So You Think.
Workforce got beat in the Eclipse by So You Think @ 1m2f.
St Nicholas Abbey won @ 1m5f and 1m4f this year.
Nathaniel won @ 1m4f and is a staying type.
Would it be in Rewilding’s favour for his stable companion pacemaker to make a slow pace?
Value Is EverythingAlas we cannot have everything, I agree that the POW was the best race of the season thus far. A masterful ride from Frankie on a late maturing horse who may yet prove even better.
Harbinger’s performance was exceptional and almost freakish, though I doubt Workforce would have got any closer than 9 lengths behind him on the day even if he wasn’t 100%. As a single performance in a prestigious race it looks great but the true merit in the annals of equine immortality are much harder to quantify. All Harbinger’s other performances might almost make a cynic wonder where the improvement came from and if there was more than just an injury that sent him off to stud in foreign climes. Prior to the race last year I thought he was the better of SMS 2 prospects in the race and I also expected Cape Blanco to confirm the Dante form with Workforce. Every year a horse has to win the Derby, King George etc as they take place at set points on the calendar although one can help but think that Ascot would love to have the King George as part of Champions Day at some point in the future, although it probably wouldnt stand much chance against the Arc in terms of attracting runners.
Whether or not Workforce has an aversion to the track (his sire has an awful record with his progeny at Ascot) should be answered this afternoon, though that doubt ought to be enough to warn punters about taking a short price about him. After all if it were so easy to foretell the future the Magic Sign would have ceased trading many moons ago.
What is the pace going to be like?
Would it be in Rewilding’s favour for his stable companion pacemaker to make a slow pace?Ahhh the topc of pace!!
About time someone brought this up!!
Here’s the official line from Godolphin…
Mahmood Al Zarooni commented:
"Everything has gone well with Rewilding since Royal Ascot…"He did very well to win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes…
I wasn’t too surprised that we beat So You Think at Royal Ascot because they
"Rewilding always tries his best in every race. I know that he was a bit disappointing in the St Leger last year. A mile and a half is his best trip and we are confident heading back to Ascot."
Even though ‘St Nic’ has won over those distances it might be worth bearing in mind that in the Coronation they walked:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIa4F2XMlxg
So a slow pace might not count him out! – Would ‘Re’ have had the toe to get up in such circumstances as he did there?
So whilst one tactic would rule out one it wouldn’t totally rule out another… might even play to a strength?!And as Andy has said:
In the final furlong of the Coronation Cup he was brought to the outside by Moore,balanced and asked to take on Midday. In a few strides the race was over.
I did notice that ‘St Nic’ had a funny tail carriage that day… it’s something that I have never noted before!
Or heard mentioned by anyone…Added: I did read (but can’t find the quote) by Crisford where he said that ‘Rewilding’ needs a fast pace to show his turn of foot.
Godolphin feel as though they are bringing him here in top shape so I’d imagine that a pace as the quote says above (or faster) would be the order of the day.
I also assume that this isn’t just about winning (for Godolphin) – it’s about proving who is the best horse isn’t it? – and to do that they’d want a proper race and therefore a fair one?!Could judging ‘St Nic’ by her poor effort last time and his bad reaction to Epsom be dodgy?
After all ‘Makfi’ flopped twice at Ascot & she’s done the same now – only at the Curra – the difference is there won’t be any 8/1 about ‘Midday’ – anytime soon!!Knocking ‘St Nic’ might be dodgy because of ‘Midday’ when you look at the fillies/mares that she’s beaten who have gone onto race against colts.
‘Snowfairy’ ran well enough in the Leger against one of these and another who was behind at Epsom.
As we know – she later went onto beat the colts in the Hong Kong Cup!‘Sarafina’ (although in a trial and not fully pushed) another who was Arc placed & some say was unlucky not to finish closer to ‘Workforce’ – has come out again this year and beaten colts…
So whilst ‘Midday’ hasn’t stepped out of her comfort zone (and I don’t blame her for not doing so ‘Canford’ is hardly knocked for having not gone and competed beyond tracks that he clearly loves – though will have to do so to eventually) those that she has beaten that have competed against the males – haven’t done so bad!
Let’s hope for a good race… one that will leave us looking forward to October
… when the weather can’t possibly be much worse than it is nowThere is a reason why apprentice are granted allowance.You gain by the weight you lose by the ride.Joseph is still learning.
Horrible, strange race with a false result in the end. Awful to see what happened to Rewilding what rotten luck.
Workforce just isn’t at home at Ascot.
What an awful ride by Joseph O’Brien on St Nicholas Abbey. Well placed early then got shuffled back then showed no urgency until Nathaniel (who had the run of the race) had flown.
Yet another boost for Frankel though, come Wednesday night everyone will wake up to just how good that horse is.
Fantastic result…awful race.
Workforce’s defeat last year was due to pulling too hard. Godolphin tried to replicate those circumstances this year with the slow pace set by Debussy.
I don’t really give a damn about the result, or the idiosyncrasies of the race now. Utterly gutted. Just took a bad step by the look of it, so unfortunate.
You are right about WF though, obviously hates Ascot as a track as do I.Desperately sad. Rewilding was a wonderful horse. I was going to Salisbury races, but will give it a miss. Can’t get up any enthusiasm for an evening racing. Well done to anyone who backed Nethaniel, winning connections and particularly John Gosden. Handled the situation immaculately, explaining how these fatal injuries can happen at any time.
Hope Workforce is ok too. Often horses who drift so badly have a leg injury. Suppose it could be the way around, did win the Arc going right-handed but always had a rival on his left to win there.
Must be difficult to put ratings to the race. They went slow early so times won’t be a guide. Possible the run of the race favoured those racing prominently. Although can understand why Godolphin made it a test of speed.
Value Is Everything
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