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In general terms, the performance of a racehorse is diminished in very soft ground. The degree to which the ability to produce one’s best varies by individual. Cirrus des Aigles appears to show little or no reduction in performance in very soft ground but to say his performance improves is wrong, it is just on a par with his performance on a sounder surface. Pastorius has shown the ability to handle very soft conditions, Nathaniel is a full brother to Great Heavens who appreciates the soft to lessen her rivals ability to accelerate at the end of a race.
Frankel showed in the Queen Anne that good to soft had no adverse effect on his performance but exceptional horses produce their very best on a sound surface. While it would be fitting that he retires in front of an adoring public, I do not support the notion of getting to the bottom of him. Grundy virtually refused to come out of his box at York as the memory of the King George lingered. The Brigadier had more than one race on very soft conditions and retired as a horse with nothing left to give.
The ability of racehorses is elastic, once it has been over-stretched, the zenith is no more attainable.1.45 Aiken
2.20 Restiadargent
2.55 Testosterone
3.30 Cityscape
4.05 Pastorius
4.45 KingscroftWow just been looking at the prices for tomorrows Champion stakes on Betfair and 1/4
Frankel
seems accurate enough but 20’s about
Nathaniel
is just unreal,this is the horse with the action to get through Heavy ground and the stamina to do just the same.Should we see the Champs achilles heel in that ground then at 20’s ‘Nathaniel’ is just way too big! Nervous times!!
I can see the bookmakers taking on Frankel tomorrow. They have more in their favour than anytime since his debut. The betting ring will not be a place for the faint-hearted.
Joni wont sleep tonight I’m telling you!
I’m not even going to try Gord!
The main thing is that Frankel comes back safe and sound to enjoy a richly deserved retirement.
Admittedly this is probably the latest date that the re-vamped Champions Day will be staged but there was a good reason that they never used to have a flat meeting at Ascot past early October. Championship flat races should ideally be contested on going no worse than good to soft, choosing a time and location where soft going is more than a 50% chance seems to me to be counter-productive.
Really boys this playground fighting will have to stop.
Very much a case of the Egotist vs the Egoist.
Having read Roger Charlton’s comments on the website, he is no more than hopeful that he will run ok. I find his comments about his horses to be generally quite candid.
He has usually run well in October but it could be that he is over the top after a long season.Much depends on the weather during racing. If it rains after the first race then it could cause problems, how much water a cut up surface can take until it becomes false and therefore untrustworthy varies according to the soil.
I don’t think there has ever been any suggestion Frankel has vicious traits. He was quite highly-strung as a youngster but many thoroughbreds are and he seems to have settled. No temperament problems to pass on.
Without wanting to re-ignite an old and tired debate there is a question of where his stamina is when looking at suitable mares. Many stallions have had their stamina explored during their race career but with Frankel (assuming he wins on Saturday!) are you looking to inject more speed or use a more stoutly-bred mare to improve stamina. You might consider a Danehill mare, given the success of such mares with his sire, but might that produce too many 7f specialists?
A Danehill mare would produce something inbred 3×2 to Danehill. Coronation was inbred 2×2 to Tourbillon, she was a wonderful racemare but attempts at making her a broodmare ended in failure. It would be a dangerous and foolhardy match.
Regarded by some as a penalty kick for Excelebration but the going has to be taken into account. He does not convince that he will see out the mile on heavy going. Cityscape, Side Glance and Carlton House has no stamina issues but the the former is a genuine group 1 performer.
Cityscape has shown an ability to handle very soft conditions and looks an obvious choice at 9/2.It will be interesting to see what happens with Noble Mission and Bullet Train. At their likely stud fees they will offer better value for money for a very similar gene pool.
Aiken has been progressive all season and showed a liking for the prevailing conditions.
Restiadargent has not yet had her favoured conditions this season. She ran a fine race over course and distance at the Royal Meeting and at the current odds of 14/1 makes more appeal than Society Rock who hasn’t won two races on the bounce since his 2yo days.
Even if the ground were bottomless, as long as it is not dangerous to horse and rider, racing will go ahead. There is too much to lose by postponement.
Whether they should be trying to stage a prestige meeting in late October at a track that is often known to come up very soft at that time of year is another matter entirely.Ginger, so in your own mind have you backed a 12/1, 13/2, 11/2 winner or do you embrace the reality that you have backed a 7/4 winner?
Excelebration is inferior to Canford Cliffs, Makfi, Rip Van Winkle, Henrythenavigator and Goldikova but that is only in the last 5 seasons, to go back 40 years the list would be very long indeed. He is a top class, durable performer but someway below the A list of milers, comparisons with the Brigadier are truly risible.
Can’t agree with this. CC, Makfi, RVW, Henry and Goldikova have form lines that tie them pretty close together, at their best probably no more than a lenght or so between them with perhaps Canford Cliffs just shading it.
There is nothing that suggests any of that bunch could have got any closer to Frankel than Excelebration has and I would rate Excelebration at the very least as good as any of those, if not better.
Take Frankel out of the equation, added to his Moulin and Jacques le Marois victories Excelebration has won a QEII by 3.5L, a Lockinge by 4L, although only just clinging on to 2nd in the Queen Anne, if ridden with more restraint on all known form would probably won that by daylight. I could also make valid case that he was clear 2nd best when 3rd in the SJP.
With a record of 12 consecutive victories including 6 G1’s we would be talking about Excelebration as perhaps one of the very best milers since Brigadier Gerard, certainly a A list miler to rank with the likes of Kris, Irish River, Northjet, Zafonic etc.
Frankel makes very good horses look ordinary and its been Excels misfortune to be made to look ordinary when he most certainly isn’t.
Of course there is something to suggest they could have got closer to Frankel. They all achieved higher ratings than Excelebration over a mile. In particular Goldikova’s 2009 victory in the Jacques le Marois is 8lbs better than any effort that Excelebration has produced in victory or defeat.
Comparing horses of vastly differing generations is too inexact to be definitive. The fact remains that Excelebration would not have been champion miler in 2008, 2009 or 2010 on what he has achieved this year or last.And Post of the year goes to ‘Fist’! superb stuff particularly pointing out the glaringly obvious
"Why does Ginge bother to make a book in the first place when Professional Odds compilers do it all for us"??
Game Set and Match Fisty Well done! At last old ‘Softie’ admits to being ‘Ginges’ Siamese twin at least! I wont ask where they are bonded mind!!
Duh!
A punter is trying to find
individual
odds which are
greater
than what he (the punter) believes the
fair
chance is. A bookmaker is working to an
over-round
so just
copying
the bookmaker will
NOT
show a
profit
.
No a value punter is seeking to get over the odds. Not all punters are the same. Being able to identify horses at "over the odds" does not make them good bets. It is helpful to be able to identify such prices, but it is far more important to learn when not to bet. You have recently been advising reducing stakes due to uncertain or poor going conditions, most often the best advice when the going is changeable is to keep hold of your stake.
