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A punter is trying to find
individual
odds which are
greater
than what he (the punter) believes the
fair
chance is.
over-round
so just
copying
the bookmaker will
NOT
show a
profit
.
I’ve proved that you cant create a book off your own back,you use the Oddschecker pages and tweak the prices to suit yourself,thats a fact! Anyone can see that if the majority of Bookmakers offer 10/1 about a horse then 10/1 it is,for you to say it should be 8/1 so therefore its ‘Value’ means Jacks*it to everyone including yourself.What makes your whole system a total contradiction is the fact you put up a ‘Value’ priced bet at 12/1 then put 4 other bets up to cover it thus killing all the so called ‘Value’ from the original bet,your 12/1 winner,should it prevail ends up paying out at 6/4,now 6/4 about anything sure doesn’t fall into the ‘Value’ category in my eyes so all your wonderful Mathematical ramblings actually contradict your intentions of finding ‘Value’! Betting 5 horses in a race never did represent ‘Value’,no matter how you colour it in!
Well GT’s DL&P’s thread has really taken off and he’ll reach the double century (of pages) quicker than AP normally does over jumps!
I think the debate sums up the contrasts between the "scientific" versus "artistic" approaches to betting. Note I think there’s room for both and there is no right or wrong approach.
I’ve never backed any horse on GTs recommendation but I do note most of his selections are in the top 6 of the betting. As I said to him a couple of threads ago I often wonder if he is wasting his time and money placing savers all the time. Why not keep the stakes and put them down on firmer selections? If you can spot value why place savers? Surely in the long run value wagers will be profitable and non value wagers are hits to the bottom line? In his defence he makes a steady profit and there’s not a lot of us about that can say this. I often wonder why he (and others) waste their time putting their bets up on here. Is it self gratification or to simulate debate?
I see GTs 100% books as a long winded way of working out the value. Some guys can see it instantly. Maybe GT needs to work out his book to see it – I don’t know.
I do detest when GT goes into "Headmaster" mode on various threads. I’ve been sorely tempted to tell him so but time constraints and my overriding rule of not getting into long debates trying to prove who is right ensure I hold my tongue with him and others.
In his defence GTs betting strategy clearly works for him at his current level. Whether he can sustain this, and make a living, at a professional level I don’t know but good luck to him. I do think the ongoing challenging of his methods is a bit uncalled for but up to him how he responds to that!
Et tu brute.
My betting strategy and beliefs have been skewed by some people for their own interests. Please do not believe what certain people say about me.
I’ve never said anyone needs to "make up a book". I don’t make 100% books in every race, in fact these days it is only around a third of races I still bother with a 100% book. But all those years of doing them has I believe helped me to identify value without the need for "books".
What I’ve said is – to have a realistic chance of making an over all profit a punter needs to know odds as percentages. ie For a punter to see a horse priced up at 8/1 and immediately think of it as 11% – has the horse got a better or worse than 11% chance of winning? If better he/she should back it at 8/1, if not NO bet and look elsewhere. A punter can bet in any way he wishes, including "artistic", my way is NOT the only way. But by knowing the maths can help tremendously in making a profit… AND just as importantly, anyone who thinks they can ignore the maths is asking for trouble.
If you notice OD, I don’t go in to "headmaster" mode when I am talking to you, or tb, or anyone else who understands what I am doing. It’s just Fist, TAK and Mr ? that don’t understand the mathematics and so do not understand the way I bet. The Aftertiming King told me I am a "fake, cheat and a charletan". Fist has said pretty much the same. I’ve explained how that can not be, by explaining the maths involved, yet they conveniently do not understand. But you are right, I’ve said enough on the matter.
My "saver" bets are not "non-value wagers", they are what I see as "value" but not quite as good value as the main bets. It may well be better if I scrapped them and concentrated on the very best value in the race. However, I do find they help keep my confidence high and so help to retain the way I think about races/value and so profit.
It is obvious some people on here see these DLAP pages as a competition and not a friendly one. Some are easily made jealous. May be they see me as a rival.
May be I like to be noticed as someone who knows what he’s talking about (where form study is concerned). It is certainly difficult to believe some people who say they make a profit without proof. Let’s face it, so few punters do. These threads help in that way but possibly have had their day. Have other priorities now, but must admit I enjoy them for whatever reason.
Value Is EverythingDuh!
A punter is trying to find
individual
odds which are
greater
than what he (the punter) believes the
fair
chance is. A bookmaker is working to an
over-round
so just
copying
the bookmaker will
NOT
show a
profit
.
No a value punter is seeking to get over the odds.
That is exactly what I said Eclipse.
Not all punters are the same. Being able to identify horses at "over the odds" does not make them good bets.
Yes they do. By backing horses which are over the odds means a profit will be made.
It is helpful to be able to identify such prices, but it is far more important to learn when not to bet.
Just as important, yes, not "more important".
You have recently been advising reducing stakes due to uncertain or poor going conditions, most often the best advice when the going is changeable is to keep hold of your stake.
The bets I have advised in those conditions Eclipse are the ones I feel are worth it despite the conditions. ie You don’t see the bets I think are best to "keep hold of your stake", because that’s exactly what they are. Non-bets.
Value Is EverythingEt tu brute.
My betting strategy and beliefs have been skewed by some people for their own interests. Please do not believe what certain people say about me.
I’ve never said anyone needs to "make up a book". I don’t make 100% books in every race, in fact these days it is only around a third of races I still bother with a 100% book.
What I’ve said is – to have a realistic chance of making an over all profit a punter needs to know odds as percentages.A punter can bet in any way he wishes, including "artistic", my way is NOT the only way.
But by knowing the maths can help tremendously in making a profit…
AND just as importantly, anyone who thinks they can ignore the maths is asking for trouble.
If you notice OD, I don’t go in to "headmaster" mode when I am talking to you, or tb, or anyone else who understands what I am doing.yet they conveniently do not understand. But you are right, I’ve said enough on the matter.
My "saver" bets are not "non-value wagers", they are what I see as "value" but not quite as good value as the main bets.
It may well be better if I scrapped them and concentrated on the very best value in the race.
It is obvious some people on here see these DLAP pages as a competition and not a friendly one. Some are easily made jealous. May be they see me as a rival.
May be I like to be noticed as someone who knows what he’s talking about (where form study is concerned).GT,
My advice – keep doing what you are doing. Learn from the debate and enjoy the craic!
See I’m not into long responses – not often anyway!
Time permitting I might start my own DLAP thread this jumps season. We’ll see.
I’ve already answered your implication that by putting more than one bet on a race is destroying the value here TAK.
I was not destroying the value in one price by backing another, I was joining the two, with a saver on a third horse who I also thought was value. Which of course would need to be included in the profit made in the bet…
Just as you haven’t destroyed the value on Dawn Approach by backing Cristaforo Colombo. ie You need to take in to account the other bet as well. Funny how you always seem to think it works just one way, isn’t it?
How come you don’t claim that by backing Cristoforo Colombo you’ve ruined your value bet on Dawn Approach then TAK?
If I believed that a horse has an 11% chance of winning and is available at 12/1 (fair 7.7%) I back it. If there is another horse in the race that I rate a 18% who is available at 11/2 (15.4%) why should I not back that one too? As it is also thought value… For a
combined
price of 100/30 (7.7 + 15.4 = 23.1 = 100/30) about something I believe to have a combined 5/2 (11 + 18 = 29 = just a touch more than 5/2) chance.
And if I rate another as a 17% chance, and is available at 13/2 (13.3%) why should I not back that for a
combined
price of 7/4 (7.7 + 15.4 + 13.3 = 36.4 = 7/4) about something I believe has a 46% (between 11/10 and 5/4)?
So say a punter backs:
7.7 points @ 12/1 = Returns 100.1 points
15.4 points @ 11/2 = returns 100.1 points
and 13.3 points @ 13/2 = Returns 99.75 points36.4 points invested and 100.1 points returned for two, almost that for the third.
A profit of 63.7 points which is exactly what a punter gets from betting 36.4 points on one 7/4 shot, winning 63.7 points.The prices are not "destroyed" they are "combined".
Value Is EverythingGinger, so in your own mind have you backed a 12/1, 13/2, 11/2 winner or do you embrace the reality that you have backed a 7/4 winner?
Ginger, so in your own mind have you backed a 12/1, 13/2, 11/2 winner or do you embrace the reality that you have backed a 7/4 winner?
If I’ve backed them all to return the same amount then a 7/4 winner.
Value Is EverythingGinger, so in your own mind have you backed a 12/1, 13/2, 11/2 winner or do you embrace the reality that you have backed a 7/4 winner?
To be fair to Ginger here Pricewise does the same sort of thing with his ante-post portfolio but the RP still advertise the "winning price"
Right then, "back it up" Gordon Wilson! But please be absolutely
CERTAIN
you are 100% correct in what you are writing!
Explain why I am a "fake, cheat and charletan" without using opinion. I expect you to withdraw it or back it up with "facts". You’ve said "I’ve proved that you cant create a book off your own back,you use the Oddschecker pages and tweak the prices to suit yourself,thats a fact"!
PROVE IT!
Value Is EverythingAnd Post of the year goes to ‘Fist’! superb stuff particularly pointing out the glaringly obvious "Why does Ginge bother to make a book in the first place when Professional Odds compilers do it all for us"?? Game Set and Match Fisty Well done! At last old ‘Softie’ admits to being ‘Ginges’ Siamese twin at least! I wont ask where they are bonded mind!!
Gordie boy, such a riposte, you must have a good scriptwriter. What gems will you comeback with next I wonder
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