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MrE thanks for the tip.
I enter all my selections and results into a database, it’s the only way of knowing what is really happening.
My first posted selections were on the 13th (6 days worth),and I make it 63 selections, 26 winners (41% strike rate), and 9.91 points profit.
I started recording them on the 7th to 12th also 6 days worth and that period was more profitable There were 61 selections, 25 winners (41% strike rate), uncannily the same but the profit was 32.82 points. The difference that this week I have only been trapping the shorties. The previous week I had winners at these prices 7.21, 8.80, 11.50,7.04,7.11,12.22.
It is not viable to take early Betfair prices on the Aussie races as most markets have not been formed, but I am beating the SP by 13% after deducting all the different commission rates, so that is small comfort. Actually I have never taken prices, haven’t a clue how to predict the market. It seems some you win some you lose ,(prices that is). I do know that on Betfair when taking their SP it does not make much difference with favourites but I can really gain with bigger priced horses. Mind you this is from someone who only bets small stakes, (really small stakes) as I seem to be permanently is the testing phase. If I was betting big bucks I might take a different view.
When you said number 5 or lower (carrying less weight) you really meant 5 or higher, (5,6,7,8…). Looking at all the selections there is a profit of 42.73 points, 5 and higher is 33.45 points profit. There were 76 selections and 29 winners 38% strike.
I see another stat number 12 or higher, 12 selections, 9 winners 75% strike rate, 16.41 profit.
As losing runs were mentioned earlier and while I have the database open, I’ve had losing runs with this of 7,7,6 and 5, all others 4 or below.
15 selections for tomorrow and I thought Sunday might be quiet. Still it won’t interfere with going to church and praying for some winners.
19/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 01:40 TeRa 4 12 ALWAYS SACRED 02:10 Cowr 1 4 PRESS WEEK 02:25 Werr 1 12 SUMMER LOVER 02:45 Cowr 2 4 COLONEL VON TRAPP 03:00 Werr 2 1 PAY YOUR DUES 03:05 Suns 1 8 DON'TDIE WONDERING 03:20 Cowr 3 4 KATE LEA 03:50 Ston 3 4 IGNITING 04:44 Musw 4 2 MY BENALLA 05:00 Alba 1 2 REDWOOD RANSOM 05:20 Musw 5 14 WANDONNA 06:07 Suns 6 4 LET'S CHEER AGAIN 06:20 Cowr 8 3 CATCHA CROWN 06:45 Suns 7 2 PERFECT AIM 07:25 Suns 8 3 STUTTERING1/3rd of the selections were non runners, leaving 10 of which 5 won, and a heady 0.57 points profit.
Time Track Race No. Horse BSP Result 02:10 Cowr 1 4 PRESS WEEK 2.14 WON 02:25 Werr 1 12 SUMMER LOVER 3.37 03:00 Werr 2 1 PAY YOUR DUES 1.33 WON 03:05 Suns 1 8 DON'TDIE WONDERING 2.69 03:20 Cowr 3 4 KATE LEA 13.95 04:44 Musw 4 2 MY BENALLA 3.75 WON 05:00 Alba 1 2 REDWOOD RANSOM 3.60 06:07 Suns 6 4 LET'S CHEER AGAIN 1.82 WON 06:20 Cowr 8 3 CATCHA CROWN 7.75 07:25 Suns 8 3 STUTTERING 2.05 WONbillion posted:-
Dolus has posted some impressive results with 6 winners – if only every day was just as good – well doneThanks billion for the vote of confidence.
Lots of meetings tomorrow though some are not covered by Betfair, but still left plenty of meat on the bone to get 21 selections from 104 races
18/01/2020 Time Track Race No. Horse 02:31 Murr 2 1 JYOTI 02:59 Kemb 2 8 EXACT REPLICA 03:19 Tumu 2 5 CARE FACTOR 04:10 Flem 1 3 AMATEURISH 04:18 Gold 3 8 THE INVESTIGATOR 04:19 Gore 9 2 DECEPTIO VISUS 04:21 Murr 5 6 KYSHAKA 04:37 Asco 1 1 MONEY MATTERS 04:42 Eagl 4 12 MOSSHIKI 04:58 Gold 4 12 FAITH AND LOVE 05:57 Asco 3 7 SUNNYSILK 06:25 Alic 3 6 SUPREME DEAL 06:50 Flem 5 2 BOLD STAR 07:06 Laun 2 12 TERRIFIC TORRI 07:14 Asco 5 2 VALOUR ROAD 07:40 Laun 3 1 EASY ROAD 07:50 Asco 6 7 PLAYS THE GAME 07:54 Eagl 9 12 PENNINO 08:00 Flem 7 1 THE LORD MAYOR 08:40 Laun 5 12 STILL A STAR 08:50 Asco 8 1 ESSENTIAL SPICEAbandoned meetings loses 3 selections leaving 18, giving 7 winners and 3.54 points profit.
Time Track Race No. Horse 02:31 Murr 2 1 JYOTI 3.00 03:19 Tumu 2 5 CARE FACTOR 5.29 04:10 Flem 1 3 AMATEURISH 5.11 04:19 Gore 9 2 DECEPTIO VISUS 3.44 04:21 Murr 5 6 KYSHAKA 4.76 WON 04:37 Asco 1 1 MONEY MATTERS 1.48 WON 04:42 Eagl 4 12 MOSSHIKI 2.82 05:57 Asco 3 7 SUNNYSILK 7.26 06:25 Alic 3 6 SUPREME DEAL 3.55 06:50 Flem 5 2 BOLD STAR 3.19 WON 07:06 Laun 2 12 TERRIFIC TORRI 5.74 WON 07:14 Asco 5 2 VALOUR ROAD 1.68 WON 07:40 Laun 3 1 EASY ROAD 3.85 07:50 Asco 6 7 PLAYS THE GAME 18.46 07:54 Eagl 9 12 PENNINO 3.77 WON 08:00 Flem 7 1 THE LORD MAYOR 5.40 08:40 Laun 5 12 STILL A STAR 1.87 WON 08:50 Asco 8 1 ESSENTIAL SPICE 2.80billion – Neurals are hard for most people to understand. Neural networks to give the full name are a branch of artificial intelligence that mimics how the human brain works.
Artificial neural networks or connectionist systems are computing systems vaguely inspired by the biological neural networks that constitute animal brains. Such systems "learn" to perform tasks by considering examples, generally without being programmed with task-specific rules. WikipediaLuckily we don’t have to know any of that with Racingandsports neurals as they are columns of ratings for different aspects of the horses abilities totalled to give a final rating. What those numbers mean or how they are related to each we will have to ask the program as it’s the only one who knows.
Ratings are good, described by someone as a shortcut to the form book, but what we really need are good ratings that not many people are using. I have never been a believer in taking too much notice of prices, a mechanism so the bookies can steer punters to the wrong horse and if the punters don’t fall for it and back the right horse they shorten it, (allegedly).
Another day, another dollar, but will that dollar be won or lost.
17/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 00:47 Taur 3 1 COOL AZA BEEL 02:00 Geel 1 2 INSPIRED SUN 03:00 Geel 3 7 FAIRY WAND 05:27 Town 3 3 BAUHINIA TED 05:40 Nowr 5 14 WANDONNA 06:04 Town 4 3 BACHELOR'S ART 06:15 Nowr 6 18 NEW DAY 06:45 Town 5 5 BOSS BABY 06:55 Nowr 7 14 STOKED 07:15 Cant 1 5 CRACKING MO 08:45 Cant 4 1 DEEP CRYSTAL 10:30 Cran 8 12 SALOME 11:00 Cran 9 9 MISTRESS MOLLY 23:37 Taur 1 4 FINAL SUGGESTIONThree non runners leaving 11 selections, 6 winners, Profit 6.74
Time Track Race No. Horse 23:37 Taur 1 4 FINAL SUGGESTION 9.21 00:47 Taur 3 1 COOL AZA BEEL 1.13 WON 02:00 Geel 1 2 INSPIRED SUN 2.89 WON 03:00 Geel 3 7 FAIRY WAND 4.34 WON 05:27 Town 3 3 BAUHINIA TED 1.88 WON 06:04 Town 4 3 BACHELOR'S ART 3.24 06:45 Town 5 5 BOSS BABY 5.15 WON 06:55 Nowr 7 14 STOKED 3.15 WON 07:15 Cant 1 5 CRACKING MO 20.91 08:45 Cant 4 1 DEEP CRYSTAL 2.00 10:30 Cran 8 12 SALOME 4.63MrE
Back in the distant past at the beginning of this century when horse racing forums were more abundant and dare I say more interesting I belonged to ‘Propun’ an Australian forum The Propun forum was a bit strange because they were always running scared of copyright issues and no one was allowed to mention a product by name, post any pictures or links, so with all the discussions about the new kid on the block ‘Neurals’, there was no way of knowing where I could find these magic numbers or even if they were free or not. I figured they were only for Aussie racing anyway.A few years ago I rediscovered ‘Neurals’ in a thread on the UK Betting Forum and found they are available on the rather excellent Racingandsports website. I say excellent as there is a wealth of info and they cover horse racing on a world wide basis with equal importance, (The Americas noticeable by there absence), so if you find an angle using this site it can be applied equally to any race anywhere in the world they feature that day. I pursued the Neurals for quite a bit on UK daytime racing but could never really get them to work.
On New Years day I started testing an angle using Racingandsports worksheets, on UK, Irish, French & South African racing and got off to a flying start which then started to go downhill so beginning of last week decided to throw in the Aussie racing and the angle seemed to work better than any of the other countries so I lost my cherry and was no longer an Australian horse racing virgin.
billion
The United States is home to the highest concentration of horse racing tracks in the entire world. Hosting both thoroughbred and harness races, there are over 75 different tracks located throughout the continental U.S. and its territories.
(I am a bit bemused by the highest concentration. The UK has 60 racecourses and we could drop the UK into the USA, peel the label off and never find it again.France has more racecourses than you might think.
France counts 250 racecourses in total but only 68 offer national fixtures. Some racecourses can offer both galop and trotting fixtures.I had never bet on an Australian horse race until the beginning of last week, but did wonder why there were so many meetings on some days, so was amazed to find that – There are over 360 registered racecourses in Australia where Thoroughbred racing takes place
Bumper crop of selections for tomorrow.
16/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 01:52 NewP 4 5 ENRICHMENT 03:00 Gosf 2 4 JUDICATOR 03:04 NewP 6 6 CATE BLANCO 03:25 Peno 3 7 COOL DESERT 03:53 Doom 1 5 THREEPOINT MISSILE 04:00 Peno 4 5 REDEEKA 04:35 Peno 5 8 BIG CALL 05:20 Gosf 6 10 DIVINE APPROACH 05:30 Arar 7 6 SKILLED ARTIST 05:38 Doom 4 9 MUSICAL GENIUS 05:55 Gosf 7 6 PHOEBE'S LASS 06:13 Doom 5 4 SEAT OF POWER 06:35 Gera 2 5 STAADEN 07:00 Pake 1 5 PERSHING 08:30 Pake 4 12 NONCONFORMIST 09:15 Gera 7 1 GESSATOWith no meetings abandoned or any non runners a full house of bets and a heady 0.57 points profit.
Time Track Race No. Horse 01:52 NewP 4 5 ENRICHMENT 2.17 03:00 Gosf 2 4 JUDICATOR 3.95 03:04 NewP 6 6 CATE BLANCO 4.60 WON 03:25 Peno 3 7 COOL DESERT 5.52 03:53 Doom 1 5 THREEPOINT MISSILE 3.40 04:00 Peno 4 5 REDEEKA 7.88 04:35 Peno 5 8 BIG CALL 3.80 05:20 Gosf 6 10 DIVINE APPROACH 2.76 05:30 Arar 7 6 SKILLED ARTIST 2.10 05:38 Doom 4 9 MUSICAL GENIUS 2.42 WON 05:55 Gosf 7 6 PHOEBE'S LASS 7.13 06:13 Doom 5 4 SEAT OF POWER 1.68 06:35 Gera 2 5 STAADEN 2.81 WON 07:00 Pake 1 5 PERSHING 1.96 WON 08:30 Pake 4 12 NONCONFORMIST 2.12 WON 09:15 Gera 7 1 GESSATO 3.43 WONJust a coincidence that there are 12 selections again for tomorrow.
Time Track Race No. Horse 03:05 Yarr 3 6 FLIRTING 04:10 Mack 1 2 DACXI KABOOM 04:40 Caul 1 6 COMMANDO MISS 05:15 Caul 2 2 SHUSH 05:35 Stra 5 10 ELCANO 05:50 Caul 3 1 AMATEURISH 06:15 Warw 6 9 PRIVATE THOUGHTS 06:45 Stra 7 1 NEVER SHORT 07:30 Caul 6 4 GRACEFUL STORM 08:00 Caul 7 7 SANSOM 08:20 Bunb 5 9 HIS 'N' HERS 09:00 Bunb 6 5 GREAT HEISTTwo abandoned meetings and a non runner reduces my selections to 5, and again a small loss -1.29
Time Track Race No. Horse BSP Result 04:10 Mack 1 2 DACXI KABOOM 1.90 WON 05:35 Stra 5 10 ELCANO 5.60 06:15 Warw 6 9 PRIVATE THOUGHTS 3.45 06:45 Stra 7 1 NEVER SHORT 9.00 09:00 Bunb 6 5 GREAT HEIST 1.94 WONA dozen becomes 3/4 of a dozen with Werribee abandoned. Did I win? Nope but only lost a little -2.14 points
Date Track Race No. Horse BSP Result 02:18 Dalb 1 6 FUNKY BEAT 1.51 WON 02:50 Scon 1 10 CRAZYAIRE 34.47 02:57 Dalb 2 3 SWING SHIFT 3.31 WON 03:25 Scon 2 1 FREE RIDER 1.53 03:34 Dalb 3 3 IMPROVING 3.75 03:45 Cora 3 2 HARALBEN 2.34 WON 04:12 Dalb 4 4 BEACH CLUB 1.47 06:15 Cora 7 5 EAGLE POINT 7.07 07:55 Dalb 10 8 HIDDEN ACTION 8.35Think I’ll throw mine into the ring.
Time Course Race No. Horse 02:18 Dalb 1 6 FUNKY BEAT 02:30 Werr 1 7 SACRED VALLEY 02:50 Scon 1 10 CRAZYAIRE 02:57 Dalb 2 3 SWING SHIFT 03:25 Scon 2 1 FREE RIDER 03:34 Dalb 3 3 IMPROVING 03:45 Cora 3 2 HARALBEN 04:12 Dalb 4 4 BEACH CLUB 05:30 Werr 7 10 SKILLED ARTIST 06:00 Werr 8 15 KOSCIUSZKO EXPRESS 06:15 Cora 7 5 EAGLE POINT 07:55 Dalb 10 8 HIDDEN ACTIONI’ve taken to having a poke at the Aussie racing using Betfair and have just made a horrifying discovery. Back in October I took the opportunity to take the 2% commission rate that Betfair was offering, lovely jubbly.
Looking at yesterdays results the commission I was being charged on the Aussie racing was right out of whack. A bit of investigation and I discovered the base commission rate on Australian racing was variable from state to state, between 6% and 10%
Details here https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/commissions-and-charges/
Clicking the rules button on the race you are backing in will open a box with the commission rate at the bottom.
Hi Bill
I was reading this post of yours about staking etc-It kind of dovetails with this thread about systems going tits up. I do not like losing runs, in fact I do not like losing at all and do not consider myself a gambler but am interested in beating the system. To that end when I am in testing mode I do this.
Golden rule number one – The bank should consist of an amount of money I am willing to lose what ever the outcome, so I start with a bank of £10 and place 1% (10p) on each selection.
The following day I adjust the stake to 1% of the current bank rounded to the nearest £1 ie £10.40 = 10p or £10.70 = 11p. (The % amount staked depends on the number of selections the prices and strike rate. I tend to prefer a scatter gun method that supplies lots of selections per day and keeps the bank turned over, hence 1% stake.)
I know this is boring and has no excitement factor but in theory I can only deplete the bank if I have 100 consecutive losers but the purpose of testing with real money is to highlight any wrinkles not apparent with paper trading.The upside is that there are no brown trouser moments and I can do the system to death or until I am sick of it.
Bin there, done that, got the tee shirt and had the pie at half time.
To me it just proves there is more luck involved in picking winners than we like to admit and stats, form, ratings etc can only do so much.
Not to mention that the horse does not know it is in race and does not care what position it finishes in. In a horses mind a race is a day out, a pleasant distraction or just a pain in the backside when it would rather be in a field nibbling clover or covering a mare
Hi billion
I was going to answer your second query but Mulls74 has beat me to it.
Oh! and gave a more correct answer in relation to that system.
Checked the Racing Ahead – 20 Super Systems booklet where I found an almost identical system to that which Mull74 refers.
The only difference being NON HANDICAP races are selected as races of choice.
When this crops up and it does within workable systems NON HANDICAP races are never clearly defined.
Can anyone say within this context exactly outside of handicaps what they are?
Maidens, claimers, sellers, NH flat races, novice, conditions, . . . . are their more?
Hi Billion
I can answer this and it really is simple:If it says handicap in the race title it is a handicap, if it doesn’t then it is not a handicap.
Some example from today-
Non Handicaps
2:20 Ling Cantering Cuisine Novice Median Auction Stakes
2:50 Ling Ryan Asset Management Selling Stakes
3:20 Ling TTS Networks Maiden Stakes
2:10 Winc Tom Perrett 60th Birthday Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle
4:40 Winc ApolloBet Fair Play Money Back Open Hunters´ Chase (for The John Dufosee Memorial Trophy)
17:10 Winc ApolloBet Casino & Games “Newcomers” Standard Open National Hunt Flat RaceHandicaps
3:50 Ling Avensys Handicap
4:20 Ling JEC Fillies´ Handicap
4:50 Ling Ryan Vehicles Handicap
2:40 Winc Jim Morgan & Ronnie Stevens Memorial Handicap Hurdle
3:10 Winc ApolloBet Cashback If You Finish 2nd Handicap Chase
3:40 Winc ApolloBet Best Odss Guaranteed Handicap HurdleHi Billion I do not come here very often so am a bit late with this.
I am not saying that Rab123 is wrong but I notice he has the last race positions as everything except 1st which is what you wanted to know. Even if last time out winners achieve a 25% strike rate in their next race it has to be compared to what other finishing positions achieve in their next race.
I can give you a strike rate of 25.78 pro/loss £325 at sp over four years.
Last race pos 2/3/4/7/8/9/10.
List of trainers.
Works at all race codes and all distances.Below from Adrian Massey website. Last time winners win 16.9% next time out and while poor is still the best compared to other finishing positions.
Flat Handicaps 2012 -2016
Results broken down by Finishing Position of Horse in its Most Recent Race
… Win Strike Rate
1st…..16.9%
2nd…..15.1%
3rd…..12.8%
4th…..10.6%
5th……9.2%
6th……8.5%
7th+…..6.5%
Fell……6.2%
PU…….5.3%
Not Run..2.3%I have also read your FENMAN thread now Cheltenham is over and the dust has settled
I did a Google on that book and it looks kind of interesting so I ordered a copy.
I did a Google on that book and it looks kind of interesting so I ordered a copy.