[Dolus]

An even more obscure winner yesterday was Avoncreek at 100/1.

The horse had never won a race in its life until yesterday with its first run at Yarmouth.

Now according to Matt Chapman on ATR, the Sire had only ever run once at Yarmouth and won and its Dam had only ever run once at Yarmouth and won.

Now I wonder if anyone tied that together before the race?

[Dolus]

The RPR that appears on the race card indicates how the horse is expected to run today, adjusted for today’s weight.

The RPR that appears in the result is updated to take into account how the horse ran in that race and is then adjusted to a standard weight of 10 stone for Flat racing or 12 stone for National Hunt racing.

When the horse next runs the RPR is then adjusted to the weight that will be carried in that race.

(And it wasn’t a stupid question )

[Dolus]

Now that Firefox has been confused I will now make it worse.

I found an explanation of the RPR ratings on, (believe it or not) the DRF web site.

http://www.drf.com/products/rpr/rpr.html

I would not like to speculate on the accuracy though

[Dolus]

Though I watched the program when first shown and read all the posts in the other thread (and now this one) it occurred to me after all the fuss died down, that Derren Brown was doing to the viewer exactly what the National Lottery and the Scoop Six does to the population as a whole every week.

Namely that no matter how small the chance of success, the more people you can get involved with different combinations the more chance one will be a winner. Publicise the winners and get everybody believing ‘That could be me.’

[Dolus]

Sunday and no time to go to church

Form Master selections

2:40 Aint
Exotic Dancer …….. 157
Monets Garden ….. 148
Kauto Star …………. 146
Ashley Brook ……… 124
Le Volfoni ……………. 64

3:15 Aint (top two)
Dunbrody Millar …… 117
Naiad Du Misselot …. 77

[Dolus]

I’d forgotten how tedious this can get on a Saturday when there are quite a few races to look at.

This was always a problem, all through the week scrabbling for crumbs and then on Saturday so much to eat it makes you sick

The top two rated in each race

1:55 Chep
Bring Me Sunshine ……. 118
Supreme Prince ……….. 116

2:50 Newb
Crime Scene ……………. 104 WON 8/1
Galactic Star …………….. 95

2:55 Chep
Gungadu ………………… 125
Sonnyandjoe …………….. 98 won 15/2

3:10 Stra
Grecian Groom ………….. 72
Bureaucrat …………….. … 60

3:45 Stra
Lost Time ……………… … 85
Kings Brook ……………. . 70 won 2/1
[/b]

[Dolus]

A top rated ong odds on shot beaten yesterday – its a good job Form Master does not recommend backing odds on shots but if you must it says, never over the jumps and not on the flat if it’s the horses first race of the season.

There is a suitable race today, a class 2 handicap 3:25 Doncaster except with 22 runners that’s a bit beyond me and Form Master. Being a 6 furlong sprint does not help. So the 2:30 Fakenham is the choice.

2:30 Fake
Cool Roxy ……… 89
The Stickler …… 41
Big Rob ………… 28
Party Games …. 25
Salinas …………. 21
Tighe Caster …. 17

The favourite is well clear again. Looking at the race in another way. As Tighe Caster the 2nd fav is bottom rated with such a low rating, would this be a laying prospect?

COOL ROXY seemed to win quite easily and TIGHE CASTER while trying tp play catch up made progress and then seemed to tire before falling[/color:2crssdwx]

[Dolus]

Hi Matron

No I did not back it, just testing the water as it is so long since I used this program and so much to re learn and check. It’s all coming back, doing that race yesterday made a lot of it fall back into place.

Again no suitable races today, so just to get back into the swing of things I picked the 5:00 Thurles as the best of a bad bunch.

This race has a forecast odds on favourite and I wanted to see if Form Master might oppose this and produce something a bit more backable. No luck there it rated that horse well clear.

5:00 Thurles
Powerstation ……………………… 109
Kerryhead Windfarm …………….. 82
Omni Cosmo Touch ……………… 71
Marburg ……………………………… 52
Carrick Dante ………………………. 51
Gran Lady …………………………… 44
Cyman Lass ………………………… 26

[Dolus]

Funny you should say that Matron.

I dug the program and manual out for a refresher course. It is a bit out of date in some areas. For instance only races of at least £4,000 to the winner should be rated (£10,000 for 2 or 3yo flat, and Novice events over the jumps.)

In today’s money (20 years later) what would that be £8,000 & £20,000 or even £12,000 and £30,000. I do remember there only ever being suitable races mainly on a Saturday and the big meetings.

Consequently there would be no qualifiers today with most races not getting anywhere near the old £4,000 cut off.

Not to be daunted there is a little four runner Handicap chase at Folkestone where the participants are capabable of running in better contests. Maybe it is a warm up race for something better. It looks highly competitive with all four being tipped and no real long odds outsider. So lets see what Form Master makes of it.

I previously used Form Master with the printed RP (pre internet days) and was pleased to find that all data could be found except one item for one horse so I had to wing it.

A bit rusty on this, so this four horse race took over an hour to collect the data and enter it. When I was using it regularly it would have taken about 10 – 15 minutes.

Here is the analysis

3:50 Folkestone
Mr Boo ———————————- 82
Croix De Gueurre ——————— 68
Stance ———————————- 56
Free Gift ——————————– 55

The manual states that no top rated horse of less than 50 points should be backed while any horse rated 75 plus is a prime candidate for a result. (I suppose that really depends what rating the 2nd top horse has.)

Lets wait and see if Form Master has picked the right horse.

[Dolus]

FORM MASTER the horseracing predictor system – by Cascade Sytems

Supposedly based on a 40 year old manual system that professional gentlemen of the turf used.

I had that, well in fact I still have it, in the drawer next to me. When I first saw it advertised in The Sporting Life it was £100, not a small price in the 1980’s.

I obtained a copy in a strange way. It was reviewd in Amstrad Action rather favourably and when I tried to get a copy it was no longer available. I wrote to Amstrad Action asking if they would sell me the review copy (assuming they still had it.) No reply but a few months later I recieved a mysterious letter offering it to me for £35. I often wondered if someone found my letter and decided to make a few quid for themselves. It could certainly find some good winners but it was so time consuming, what with rules, rules about rules and conditions about those rules.

Any of you previous owners remember the manual. it was some 200+ pages and was a good read in itself. Do you also remember having to constantly refer to the manual while filling in the data sheet before even going anywhere near the computer. For example the last three form figures had to be entered and the rules and explanation for this took 10 pages (I kid you not.)

SO THE POINT IS DO ANY OF THE BOOKMAKERS WANT BUY IT FOR A MILLION QUID

as I might just start using it again.

[Dolus]

I have looked at past results in the racing post but it does not indicate whether the horse was the favourite when you look at past years.

Yes it does – for example

6:15pm Newmarket 23rd July 2004 (the race mentioned in the race fixing trial report)

It plainly shows the favourite was 2nd at 8/11, the winner was the 3/1 2nd fav

[Dolus]

Nothing to do with bookmakers but some time ago I could not make any payments using my PayPal account.

Going through the PayPal help file and FAQ produced some weird and wonderful answers and solutions, none of which worked. Emailing PayPal did not produce a workable answer.

It turned out that all that had happened was my card had expired and going to my account and putting in the new expiry date solved the problem. Why a message did not pop up saying my card had expired is beyond me.

I’m not saying this is your problem but might be worth checking.

[Dolus]

‘Distaff’ in relation to the Distaff race at the Breeders cup simply means for female horses.

As for ‘Family’ I am guessing it just means they are blood related so might exhibit the same characteristics.

[Dolus]

If you are fortunate to have surround sound then it’s the BBC (broadcast in stereo) for the earlier races for that added ambience, just hope a plane or helicopter flies over for that extra treat. : :biggrin:

Then its plain vanilla mono for the later ones on ATR

(Edited by Dolus at 3:03 pm on June 19, 2007)

[Dolus]

I wouldn’t say one way is better than the other. With level stakes you don’t have to work out the individual stakes then find the prices have changed.

I now present a different method. If you really think it’s a two horse race then go to the course, nobble one of them and put all your dosh on the other :biggrin:

[Dolus]

Gong back to the first post Arndale

Isn’t your intention of trying to work out how a horse is going to run today by looking at the past RPR’s just trying to second guess the Racing Post handicapping team.

The RPR presented with the racecard is how the RP handicappers thinks the horse could/should run today, adjusted for today’s weight.

[Dolus]

Besides Authorised, who will win the Derby?

That would be a dead heat then :biggrin:

Did I not see MAHLER mentioned on the morning line as the Pricewise horse and the Daily Mirror value pick?

I also have LUCARNO as my derby pick Grey Desire. (great minds and idiots think alike.)

[Author]

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